Covidiots and the flaw of "Natural Immunity"

I'm "enjoying" watching the anti-vax; Covid-19 is a hoax or 'mild cold' crowd rejoice at the apparent retreat by the 'liberals', as countries begin to open up again. The pandemic is beginning to run its course, and Omicron has been demonstrated to be less dangerous (something that was not known for certain early in its spread - though some of course, claim to have known that all along). Vaccination rates and the efficacy of the vaccines has been demonstrated, and there is a dramatic slowing of the number of serious cases as a percentage of total new cases.

“Natural Immunity” is their catchphrase. Let’s be clear. The pandemic has lasted this long because some are perfectly willing to see their loved ones sicken and die, apathetic to seeing their communities ravaged, and are perfectly happy to see long-term illness and the impact of “long-covid”. As long as it isn’t them, then they will whine for the care and the drugs that would not have been required if they hadn’t been so selfish.

So the natural evolution of the pandemic, and the subsequent beginnings of openings is being heralded as proving that they were right all along, and there should not have been any lockdowns in the first place. Add to this a study (I forget where, but actually very reputable - quite surprised me) saying that lockdowns contributed only very, very minimally to reduced deaths. Personally, I do not think they could be more wrong. Here in Greece, the early lockdowns stopped the spread in its tracks, and saved many lives. New Zealand (and Australia) stopped their initial spread through border closures and lockdowns to isolate cases. 

Half-measure lockdowns failed. When Greece moved to partial opening with masks and low enforcement, cases gained a foothold in communities and began to spread fairly quickly. I've written my observations and thoughts on that before. The "official" lockdowns were almost ignored, with crowds gathering to enjoy evenings in the open. And while people were outside, they were much closer than the 2 metres recommendations. 

Now the push is to tout "natural immunity". I love this one. Natural Immunity is the immunity the body builds through the production of antibodies. How do you build the antibodies? By exposure to the virus. Vaccinations are not quite as effective as natural immunity in stopping severe cases of Covid-19 (or most illnesses). But I'd rather have a very mild dose of Covid-19 (or cholera for that matter) after vaccination than have a potentially nasty case of either because I was not vaccinated. Sure, in future, my natural immunity antibodies will protect me from a nasty case of either, but the possible price is undoubtedly higher without vaccinations than with it.

So their fundamental argument remains that it would have been better to allow everyone to catch Covid-19 to become immune in future than to have vaccinated people to reduce the number of severe cases.

I've commented on a ZeroHedge article (https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdcs-study-natural-immunity-explained). 

Cool. So natural immunity protects from "severe outcomes from reinfection." REINFECTION. It does NOTHING to protect from a severe initial infection. NOTHING. 

So to get the benefit of natural immunity, I have to be subjected to the risk of a severe infection, potential hospitalisation (and potential death - 900,000+ in the US alone so far) in order to get slightly better protection for a potentially severe REINFECTION.

Meanwhile, with vaccination I can skip (or greatly reduce the risk of a) severe case. Wow.

The article has a video that is actually reasonably informative and reasonably balanced. Of course, it is used by the Zero-morons as proof that Vax is Bad, it is all a conspiracy, and as one person wrote, people who vaccinate children are worse than child rapists. There is a complete, deeply crazy ecosystem out there, and the comments section of ZeroHedge is one place to observe it up close.

But I really like the article and the chart (from the CDC) that accompanied it. It is clear even though the anti-vaxxers will use it as some form of proof of their demented argument against vaccination. 

That chart is just fantastic, if you remember that all of the lines at the bottom have been exposed to Covid-19 or have been vaccinated. Only the upper line shows people who have not been ‘vaccinated’ in one way or another – by actual vaccination or by the natural vaccination of the virus itself. 

What is important is that while there are three lines at the bottom, two of those had to pass along the dark line before they could start their journey along the bottom. Being vaccinated effectively allows the body to bypass the dark line on its way to becoming one of the lower three lines – those that have little risk of an adverse Covid-19 experience. 

Meanwhile, the anti-vaxxers talk about (unproven and unobserved) long-term effects of vaccination, all the while ignoring that there are very real Long-Covid effects, and that possibly 20% or more of those who did not have asymptomatic Covid-19 are experiencing. With billions of people having been vaccinated, some for over a year now, it is not unreasonable to expect that any long-term impacts of the vaccine would be manifested by now.

What is manifesting is the impact of Long-Covid on individuals, their families and communities, on their jobs and companies, and on society as a whole. And yet, there remains a vocal minority who would very happily sacrifice their grandparents, parents, their neighbours, anyone around them (except themselves, of course, as they all accept care as soon as they are ill).

Certainly, it is wonderful news that the pandemic may be winding down, or at least should through the spring. What is sad, however, is that the natural rhythm of the pandemic will be used as evidence by the anti-vaxxers and covidiots that they were right all along. We didn’t need to take the steps that we did, and we didn’t need a vaccine. See, the pandemic is going away regardless of what we did. 

Wrong, the pandemic is going to go away because of what was done to fight it, and at a cost of far too many people dying. And the pandemic only lasted this long because of those who are happy to see those around them sicken, die or be maimed in some way for years to come.

So goes the Covid in Greece; 2 Feb 2022

There is definitely a weariness that permeates everything. Sure, we all wear the mask most of the time, except that it is more common to see groups of people without masks, certainly indoors. And even we will not wear a mask indoors when dining. Being triple vaxxed, we feel a sense of, not immunity but, less concern about catching Covid-19 and the potential impact on us. We have an expectation that it will be mild and will pass over us.

Still, there remains the concern that we, either of us, could be one of the few that has a bad case, or has a “long Covid” case with problems lingering for some time. So we remain cautious, but in all honesty not as cautious as we should be. 

This is especially the case with the high numbers now. We are immured to the numbers, which when they were a thousand a day, we panicked, but at 19,000 a day we now think that is, if not a good day, then at least a standard day in a stream of days in which the numbers are slowly coming down. But of course, they are not coming down yet, and deaths are now back up to a seven-day moving average that is as high as it has ever been. 

Last week, Francoise went to her regular yoga on Wednesday. She goes to a studio that currently has only three people at a time, with plenty of space between them. The window is open the entire time, even in winter. So that would make this “cold yoga” and not “hot yoga” (bad joke). 

On Saturday, her yoga instructor sent her a message saying that she tested on Wednesday and was positive for Covid-19, probably caught from her child’s school. 

So it was a self-test for Francoise, which thankfully came up negative. That is one is a string of near misses we’ve had. I’m not terribly impressed that the yoga teacher took until the weekend to tell Francoise, with there then being a few days in which Francoise would have been building up a good case, and potentially being contagious herself. 

Total cases in Greece from the beginning of the pandemic is now ar around 1.9 million, or around 18% of the population. One in five people has had Covid-19, officially. Yet there have been so many cases that were asymptomatic and therefore never identified, and probably many cases spotted in self-tests that were not reported. If that is the case, then my personal estimate is that the number of confirmed cases is 50%, at best of the total number of cases. That makes the total percentage of cases closer to 40% or more of the population. And we have no idea how many of the children have had Covid-19 and just brushed it off as nothing. 

 So if 40% have been infected and therefore have a significantly lower chance of catching it again soon, and 45% (as of yesterday's numbers) have been vaxxed and boosted, then that accounts for 85% of the population, leaving a scant 15% left who are fully exposed. I’m not suggesting that the 85% cannot be infected, but I would expect that the potential infection rate for that part of the community is much less than for the remaining unvaccinated who have yet to be infected.

So with those kinds of numbers, that leaves around another 1.5 million exposed. At 20,000 per day, and with an expectation that of the remaining 15%, only 7.5% of them will actually contract Covid-19, we should start seeing a dropping off of new cases this month, hopefully tapering off the very few ongoing new infections by the end of March.

Is that good news? I think it is. Certainly, there will be more variants, and there will be additional waves as new variants sneak past vaccination protection. But unless those new variants are really scary, I’m hopeful that we will be “back” to a “new normal” is mask-less walks and an awakening city and country just in time for spring.

For us, being dosed is helpful, but there remain too many unvaccinated. The Greek government is now fining the elderly who are not vaccinated, and there is a recommendation that the fines be deducted directly from their pension payments. Unfortunately, I think that seems reasonable, except. 

Anne Marie in Costa Rica remains unvaccinated and is worried that being alone, the side effects from being vaccinated could be too much for her. With a reverse-placebo effect, I’m afraid that she is right, and the side effects will be too much. Not because there would have been any, but because she has now convinced herself that there will be, and therefore there will be. Reverse-placebo. I think even we were subject to a bit of that, with both of us experiencing lethargy and aches over a couple of days. Francoise on the day of the vaccination and me starting the following day for 24 hours.. 

If we experienced that, with our comfort at being vaccinated, there is absolutely no doubt that Anne Marie will have serious side effects. 

And that brings me back to the elderly Greeks who are not vaccinated and now face fines. I lack sympathy, or I did. Now I'm beginning to think that these elderly will have a disproportionate rate of serious side effects, due not to actual causes but simply due to their deeply held expectation of negative side effects. I don't know what the right trade-off is, but certainly, there will be a need for greater monitoring of the elderly when they do get their vaccinations.

(All images from Google search phrase "Covid Greece" on 2 Feb 2022)

Lockdown or Economy, a false choice

Have you heard people say that lockdowns are destroying economies? The argument is that we should open up, let the virus run its course, and build herd immunity (now that it seems only old people die, and that only a tiny percentage of overall cases result in death). Yet the assumptions seem to be that there is an either-or choice. The reality is much different. 

(Twitter: 27/12/2020 – the very voice and face of evil)

Locking down has enormous consequences for economic activity and mental health; this is true. This is balanced by a reduction in the mortality based on a lower or slower spread of the virus. A slower spread of the virus should ensure that the medical system, hopefully, can cater for the load that sick people place on the system. There are only so many hospital beds, and only so many medical professionals. Overload that system, and people will not receive required care, fatalities will rise, and the pool of available healthcare professionals will shrink as they are removed, hopefully temporarily, as they become sick and burned-out. There is also an element of trying to keep the sick-load down until effective interventions are available, and vaccines are available in volume. 

Remove lockdowns (or more accurately, do not impose lockdowns), and the benefits of fewer people becoming ill, dying, and overloading the medical system, will disappear. Now factor in the social impact of a visibly collapsing health system, mounting deaths and infection lurking around every corner and in every shop. There would be no need for a lockdown to stop people from flying. Bars could remain open, generating income for bar owners and employees. Shops and offices could stay open, and the economic activity would reduce unemployment and economic loss. Small investors leveraged to build businesses and futures would have these protected by an economic system that would continue apace, continuing employment and continuing the turnover required to service business (and personal) loans and build assets.

That is the argument. And it is dead wrong.

Mass illness and death have a way of seeping into the soul of a society, and fear is a dampener on economic activity. Trauma begets behaviours (and is caused by behaviours). So, tourism would come to a sudden stop. Likewise, while shops may remain open, economic activity in the shops would have come to a virtual halt. Yet wages would continue to be due, and as revenue collapsed and staff were fired, it would not be long before the markets themselves would begin to ‘price in’ the future impact of collapsing economic activity.

In the US, with a for-profit healthcare system linked to individual employment, the double threat of losing a job while at the same time being forced to work in environments that were clearly advantageous to the spread of the virus could not have anything other than a negative impact on workers' productivity. Worse than worker productivity, worker health will suffer through institutional failure to implement health-saving policies. The only policies that will matter will be wealth-saving policies. We’ve already seen the impact.

Earlier this month in Douglas County, one person who was sick went to work, and later tested positive for the coronavirus.

Within two weeks, that one action led to two subsequent outbreaks. The first killed at least seven people, nearly 20% of the county’s total COVID fatalities since the pandemic began. The second forced more than 300 people into quarantine.

Working from home would become a desirable option for workers (if they can), regardless of the ‘lockdown’ situation.

And the higher death rate among the elderly would drag workers away from the office for funerals and grieving, further impacting the social fabric. The higher death rate would also cause a national grieving significantly greater than the current numbing effect of the virus.

The question of “save lives or save the economy” is a false question. If society did not set out to save as many lives as possible, there would have been no economy. It would have stopped.  

Throughout the pandemic, modelling has included expected cases and mortality based on various levels of a lockdown or other social distancing measures. By early April deaths were climbing quickly, and projections looked pretty scary. The CDC’s site included its historical projections. Below is the 13 April 2020 projections of potential cumulative deaths in the US through July 2020, based on various levels of restrictions.

With the minimum “contact reduction” of 20%, deaths would have reached a range of between 130,000 to a horrifying 350,000. That range itself is horrifying, and reflects the dearth of information available at that time for modelling. It is scary to note that total US deaths passed 125,000 in June, not far off an extrapolation of the 40% contact reduction line above. 300,000 cumulative deaths in the US was reached in December, and current projections are for more than 420,000 deaths by inauguration day on 20 January 2021. 

Imagine 200,000 deaths by May 2020. Who would leave the house? Who would even consider going to work? Would there be an economy?

So while the modelling of total deaths took place, there was not an associated modelling of the potential impact on economic activity based on those deaths.  The comparison should have included not just vague statements about the health system being overloaded, but should have quantified the potential impact of health and economic activity.

The trauma of people being forced to continue to work in offices, factories and shops would be significant. The London Underground provides an example. Even under ‘normal circumstances’ the Tubes are packed, and people are surly and uncommunicative. There are unwritten behavioural rules, such as you don’t talk to others (or if you do, it is either boisterous groups, or quiet individual conversations) and do not make eye contact with strangers. Now imagine that in a pandemic in which everyone is expected to go to work, and the Tube is still crowded, but now there are people with fevers and coughs as well. 

In non-pandemic times, others are tolerated because an unwritten code says ‘we are all in this together’, as long as being together will not kill us. In normal times the unwell person on the train is requested to get off at the next stop and stay on the platform until they feel better or ask for assistance from station staff. 

In a pandemic, station staff are suddenly required to act as front-line medical responders. The infection will spread to them quickly, and the numbers of staff unavailable due to illness will rise. As the London Underground workforce is well unionised and protective, strike action should be expected and would effectively shut down the Underground. So as the pandemic spreads (in a no-lockdown situation) the number of train services will fall, cramming more people into fewer trains, increasing infection rates. 

At some stage, people will simply refuse to take the Tube.

That needs to be figured into the economics of the pandemic, and the ‘stay open’ arguments. Does NYC continue to function if New Yorkers refuse to take the Metro? Does the Metro still function is staff are out on strike or there are too few staff due to sickness?

Then consider the psychological effect of an infection rate climbing quickly, yet with a demonstrably deaf governmental and business community. If we (well, I) have been shocked by the level of conspiracy thinking that has happened with lockdowns, imaging the level of conspiracy thinking that would take place in an “everything should continue as normal” scenario.

I would imagine that business would be even more reviled, and all faith in government to protect people, or even to have the people’s interests in mind would evaporate. Covid-19 would be seen as a tool by which the government was ridding itself of the elderly to avoid pensions and healthcare obligations to the elderly, returning the economy to longer-term demographic stability. Kill off the old, and Social Security costs will fall, and taxes won’t need to rise, allowing more tax cuts for the rich.

And about the ‘rich’. Clearly, THEY are taking this seriously, and are able to distance and protect themselves and their families while the workers who create their wealth must continue to work, be exposed, get sick, and lose everything to the illness. The current anger (yes, there really is anger) at the wealth accumulation by higher earners and the extravagant increases in wealth at the very top through the pandemic will have repercussions. A ‘wealth tax’ cannot be ruled out.

Now imagine a ‘no-lockdown’ scenario, with mounting deaths, raging illness and (in the US in particular) the stripping of families of what meagre assets they have, impoverishment of the newly unemployed (after all, if there is no lockdown there should be little need for a stimulus package). Remember that even those who are benefiting from stimulus are seeing assets diminished and poverty approaching. Renters are falling behind with no associated equity assets to rely upon to provide financial depth. Homeowners are finding mortgage payments difficult or impossible to make. Banks will allow loans to extend only so long.

This is happening with stimulus and with lockdowns. Without lockdowns, the higher infection rates and higher death rates due to crippled health systems will exacerbate the economic problems.

Anti-lockdown advocates also make the spurious claims that ‘more people will die from suicide than will be saved by a lockdown’. This is complete bollocks. The suicide rate will be the same or higher, as large numbers of people are pushed into extreme poverty through economic collapse (which will happen simply because too many sick and dying people will mean too little shopping and too little working). In addition, those that suffer from depression due to the visible increase in illness all around them will have no services available to assist them, as those services will also be impacted by increased employee illness and absenteeism. Volunteers will become fewer as they deal with issues of their own at home and in their families.

Long-Covid

Missing from the discussion has been the economic impact of "Long-Covid" on more general health, and the psychology of returning to work in an "open economy". Long-Covid refers to those patients who continue, sometimes months later, to have Covid-19 related symptoms and in some cases, significant disabilities. 

A core element of a thriving economy is the confidence that the structures are in place to ensure that long-term aspirations will be achievable by "playing the game" of work hard, gain rewards, live a comfortable life. Curtail the probability of a quick recovery and a "back to normal", and expect an even slower recovery. That is the simple psychological impact that will hinder a full return to normality.

Then there is the associated economic impact of a potentially large cadre of individuals who will be unable to fully return to their pre-pandemic jobs and lives. They will "contribute" less to the economy, while likewise increasing the cost of the economy. Societies are expensive to run, and taking care of the weak and the sick to a standard that provides opportunity and enables a quality of life is part of that cost. It is the insurance policy that we all de facto pay for.

Long-Covid will result in untold individual and family suffering, and will be a drain on the economy that is so loved by those with assets. 

While the skyrocketing sickness and death rates in an "open economy" will effectively close that economy regardless of the wishes of politicians and oligarchs. Long-Covid will make create further drains slowing further the recovery of that much-worshipped economy.

Summary

“Open the economy, Now!” Lockdowns cause more harm than benefit. This is true, but only if there is no pandemic. When society is being ravaged by a highly contagious illness, the impact is far beyond the economic. And ignoring the pandemic in the pursuit of continued profit will backfire. More will die, and business will still fail, and prospects for a speedy recovery will wither. 

This is not a Covid-19 travel ban (EU & Europe)

I am prefacing this with the disclaimer: I am NOT a conspiracy theorist, and do not like conspiracy theories. But sometimes you have to wonder. 

So much of Europe is closing its doors to the UK, completely. No air or rail traffic to or from the UK from the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France and others. Greece has imposed a 7-day quarantine on any traveller from the UK. The “new strain” of Covid-19 is supposed to be 70% more infectious. This number feels a bit ‘made up’ but I’ll go with it. I’ve seen that it spreads 70% faster, or that it spreads within the body 70% faster. Whatever the situation, Europe has panicked and is shutting down all access to the UK. 

This is, frankly, silly.  The new variant was identified in September, and therefore there is not a country in Europe that has not had travel to and from the UK in the three months since. And in those three months, there can be little doubt that if it is that much more contagious, it will have spread outside the UK already. I almost wonder if there isn’t a little bit of politics going on here also, a gentle reminder to the UK government what Brexit will look like without a deal. Miles of lorries unable to deliver food to the UK because of blockages in the ports. All a good preview of Brexit. 

And they do not need to explicitly say this is what a ‘no-deal’ Brexit will look like; it’s a given.

So while we are told that there is a new strain of Covid-19 out there, and we should worry, the fact is that if it has been around since September, then there is no country that it has not already arrived in (except of course New Zealand).

The Black Death took from 1347 to 1351 to finish its march from the Crimea through Southern Europe, up to France and across to England and north and east to Germany. The plague travelled at the speed of a sail-driven ship, or the speed of a merchant walking their cart from village to village. The dates of arrival of plague in cities across Europe matched the speed of travel by foot (or ship) nicely. Indeed, word of the plague travelled faster, because couriers rode at some speed to deliver regal and ecclesiastic news. But infection travelled in the merchant’s cart.

In such a situation, a new variant of plague identified in September would still be on its way from England to Italy by December, with its arrival at each city along the way being identifiable by increased cases in those cities.

Covid-19 travels at the speed of a jet-liner. So any variant anywhere in the world, if the mutation is hardy enough and supportive of replication without killing the host, will travel around the world in days, maybe a couple of weeks. Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted is one thing; shutting the stable door a month after the horse meandered out is quite another. That horse is not only long gone, it also wandered through all your neighbours' pastures and paths. 

Locking down all travel from the UK two and a half months after a new variant of Covid-19 has been identified is not only silly but ineffective in the extreme. Add to that the argument that this is a more contagious version. Well in that case, and with the speed of spread of ‘Covid-19 Classic’, a more virulent version should be spreading even faster. And we know that Covid-19 spread in a matter of a few weeks, not months. We also know that the initial spread was faster, but not identified because of the latency period between infection and manifestation of the decease. 

This version has not only had the time to spread, if it is actually more virulent, then it is already spreading rapidly through all of Europe. 

The closing of UK borders is not due to a Covid-19 variant unless this is for show only. And if it is for show, then the EU might as well use that show for alternative and additional messaging. We’re all in this together, or look what happens when you are locked out.

And possibly not a surprise, France has announced that it may open the border to traffic again as soon as 48 hours from now. They certainly will not have the new strain under control or even limited by then. But the main message will have been sent and received.

Good news, bad news, good news, bad news

It has been a day of Good News, Bad News, Good News and Bad News, all depending on the country. 

UK

In the UK this morning, a 90-year old has become the first person to receive the Covid-19 vaccine in the sanctioned roll-out (as opposed to the clinical trials). This marks the beginning of a vaccination programme that should, by late spring, see enough people vaccinated if not declare the pandemic over, at least to declare that the risk is contained. “Normal life” will be able to resume.

The anti-vax community will avoid vaccination, and will find that they are enjoying ‘stay-cations’ for the coming year. I expect no country will allow them entry (and many airlines will refuse to fly them) if they cannot demonstrate vaccination. That is their right, and I fully support it. But decisions come with consequences, and the result of their stand will be that they will not be allowed to put themselves and others in harm’s way – mostly put others in harm’s way. But it is also to keep them out of harm’s way and reduce their potential burden on the rest of society. If they refuse the vaccine, and then go on holiday and catch the virus, they put others at risk, but they also create an additional unnecessary drain on stretched health services.

Still, this has to go down as a great day. Not the first vaccine day. The Chinese and the Russians are already vaccinating their people, but as they are “not us” then they and their vaccines don’t count. So goes the logic; their vaccines have not been through our testing and trial regimes, and we have not had adequate oversight, so we will not certify, or count their vaccines as safe or acceptable. So, ours is first, yeah.

Amerika

Meanwhile, the US daily new cases have reached a seven-day moving average of over 200,000. And the president, Trump, still doesn’t care, and his people still have rallies and gatherings of hundreds or thousands of people with limited or no masks or distancing. Giuliani is sick, and infected how many people as he stood in courtrooms and posed for selfies with people across Amerika? Now that buffoon is ill and receiving the best care that Amerika can provide. In a civilised society, he would be facing charges of endangerment. Even in Amerika is it illegal for someone to knowingly put others at risk of contagion for deadly deceases. Did he know he had it? Possibly not, but his behaviour represents recklessness at the very minimum. He should be in jail. Well, he should be in jail after he recovers.

Even if he did not know he was infected, he certainly knew his behaviours were dangerous. He knew he had been in contact with infected people (at various Trump events) and therefore should have been taking greater care. Instead, there is video of him, in a courtroom, asking someone sitting next to him to remove her mask “so we can hear you”. 

Yesterday was Pearl Harbor day. More than 2400 Americans were killed In the Japanese attack, and the United States declared war on Japan and Germany. Yesterday the US seven-day moving average number of deaths from Covid-19 reached 2300. Yesterday’s and the day before yesterday’s raw numbers were lower than that, but they were the Sunday and Monday numbers, and we expect those to be lower. 

Meanwhile, there is reporting today that Pfizer actually offered to sell the US government 100 million additional doses of their vaccine last summer. The administration turned them down. Now the US will have the 100 million that it pre-ordered from Pfizer, and the 100 million from Moderna, and will not be able to source additional Pfizer vaccine doses until Pfizer’s existing orders from other clients have been filled.

So between the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine doses, there should be enough to vaccinate around 100 million Amerikans (at two doses per person vaccinated). That is just under a third of the population. 

Instead of focusing on sick and dying Amerikans, Trump rang the governor of Pennsylvania to ask him to overturn the election result and select a republican set of electors. The governor said “no”. The governor of Georgia gave him the same answer. Outside the house of the Michigan Secretary of State, the official who certifies the election for Biden, armed groups gathered and shouted threats. And the president said nothing to stop them while continuing to encourage the lie that the vote was stolen and that there was massive fraud. Fraud that they cannot prove in any court. 

Biden is said to be against pursuing Trump; that it would be bad for the country and would stop the healing that needs to happen. He is wrong. Trump and those that enable him, and those that follow his thinly veiled suggestions to “Liberate Michigan” (from lockdowns, but really from a Democratic governor), they must all face the courts. 

Reuters reports “Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said dozens of armed protesters gathered in a threatening manner outside her home on Saturday evening chanting “bogus” claims about electoral fraud.”

Thugs with guns outside someone’s house protesting the electoral outcome must see consequences. As above, it may be their right, but with the practice of those rights comes consequences. I hope the faces and names of all those ‘protesting’ outside the Secretary of State’s home are published and spread widely. Let them learn that participation in a free society also requires compliance with the norms of that society.

Those that have committed crimes of intimidation should be prosecuted. Those that have smeared the names of good people should be prosecuted. Democracy is not free, and to forgive and forget the actions of those who seek to undermine it will only embolden them for the next time, until they are shooting in the streets; until they are armed at the polling stations, demanding proof that citizens are authorised to vote, and telling people that if they vote the wrong way, they will be visited afterwards.

We’ve seen this before. And it must not be allowed to happen again.

Greece

Thankfully here in Greece, the numbers continue to fall. 

Yesterday there were under 1000 cases for the first time in over a month, and today there were 1250 new cases (well, actually the day before yesterday, and yesterday, but today with when I can see those numbers). Watching them every day can be depressing and frustrating, so it is good to leave it for a few days, then come and take a look, to be either heartened or concerned. Today, heartened is the word.

The seven-day moving average is now at around 1600, down from 2600 two weeks ago. There is a long way to go, but it does seem that things are moving in the right direction. Does this mean opening for Christmas? I’m not confident. They have opened the “Christmas decoration” shops, to allow people to buy the trappings, light and decorations of Christmas, no doubt to give people some hope and happiness at this time. Without that, it would be a very grim Christmas indeed, and that would add to the depression that will be felt by many as January bites. 

Panama

In a blow to progress in Panama, the "Dry Law" has been brought back in for the Panama Province, covering the city and surrounding suburbs. Arijan apparently is the new epicentre of Covid-19 cases. This not a huge surprise, as workers commute from Arijan into the city, often spending 1 to 2 hours on crowded busses. If they are lucky (and 'wealthy') they travel in air-conditioned buses, trapping the air and the virus inside. If they are not, they travel in crowded buses with the window open enjoying the heat and humidity.

Panama cases have climbed back above 2500 per day. This is as bad as its been, and the hopes that the pandemic had passed are shattered with this. 

I guess the summary for the day is that there is bad news, good news, and bad news, with a weighting toward good news.

Responding to "how do we get back to normal?"

Some days ago a message was sent to a group I'm in. "John" said to me after that he forwarded the message when another member of the group had insisted that he send the message. The message's first three lines were worth considering

Please just take politics out of it and read this with an open mind using common sense. Anyone out there who can tell me what our end game is with the covid 19? What is the magic formula that is going to allow us to sound the all-clear?

The person insisting that the message be forwarded is a Trumpist, and the entire tone of the message was confrontational. The message then had a long list of questions and statements that felt like it was leaning to a political position, i.e. stop trying to lock down, open up the economy, there is little else we can do about this. The message ends with the following two statements:

I'm struggling to see where or how this ends.
We either get busy living or we get busy dying.

So without repeating the entire turgid message, I'll provide only my response (with very modest edits to clean up grammatical errors, etc):

------------------

Okay John, no politics (I promise).

I consider the entire gist of this comment to be summed up in the first three sentences, and really the question is “how do we get back to ‘normal’, whatever that was or will be?”

The problem with this virus is that it is not yet fully established in the human population, and the more we know about it, the more potentially disturbing it is. Therefore, we are “waiting” for three things to happen, and we are taking, collectively and individually, various steps to reduce the impact until one or all of those things have been achieved/happen.

The three things that we are waiting for are:

1. An effective vaccine. Yes, I will be one of the people who will happily take the vaccine. I’ve been taking them my entire life, and for much of my youth, they were not optional. Cholera shots twice a year in some countries (antibodies do only last so long), Gamagobulin in some countries. Tetanus. And of course the standard ones. There was a time when approaching check-in for an international flight you had to provide a ticket, a passport, and a vaccination record. Those days will come back. We do not need to do that now because, until Covid-1, we were living in a magical time after most major illnesses had been ‘conquered’ and a new one had not yet arrived.

2. We have developed effective therapeutic responses that render the virus as dangerous as the common cold. We are not there yet, though treatment protocols are improving – thus we are seeing fewer critical cases. 

3. The third thing we are waiting for is for the virus to mutate into a host-bothering virus and not a host-killing virus. This is natural and will happen with Covid-19 also. But we do not know how long this will take (probably only a year or two, as the more virulent strain kills too many hosts, and vaccination pushes it to the outer fringes).

So those of us not actively involved in vaccine development are basically playing a waiting game. And in that time, some of us are trying to limit the risk of either infecting others or becoming infected. 

We now know that up to 25%+ of people who contract the virus will have longer-term negative impacts, and those will be a huge drain on the sufferers, their families, and society as a whole. So a combination of the initial unknowns of mortality coupled with the now-known longer-term impacts suggests that until 1 and/or 2 and/or 3 above are achieved, it is prudent to do all we can to limit the spread of the virus. That is impossible without completely closing a country, as New Zealand did, and bought themselves 100+ new case-free days (all as part of holding out until 1, 2, and/or 3 above is achieved).

Here in Greece the decision has been made to accept a certain number of cases (I have no idea what the number would be) in exchange for salvaging some of the tourist season. That has worked, a little. Yet even opening the country has not rescued the tourist season, but has, hopefully, reduced a little the damage. There will be spikes, as we are seeing Halkidiki with additional restrictions at this moment.

The recent flights from Zante carrying Covid-19 infected people back to the UK have tarnished Greece's well-earned image as a safe place to holiday. Meanwhile, Greek infection rates are higher now than during the 'first wave' in March and April 2020.

How long will it take to reach 1, 2, and/or 3? I don’t know, but there is a huge amount of progress being made on number 1, and there will probably be stage-4 successful vaccines ready by the end of the year. Greece has ordered 3 million doses, with the first to arrive in December (provided stage-4 trials are successful).

So with a vaccine, and with better treatment options, I think next year will be a “good year” (relatively speaking of course). I hope number 3 happens through the coming year also.

Market Doom Delayed?

Why haven't the (equity) markets crashed yet, and will they?  After being convinced that we are on the edge of the precipice for the markets, I no longer think that. I think the markets have probably six or more months of happy days ahead. 

From Worldometer.org 23/7/2020

Cases around the world are surging. Yesterday’s was the biggest jump in cases globally to date, with something like 280,000 new cases, up from 240,000 the day before. The global death rate is increasing again, after its earlier peak in April. The seven-day trend lines are not looking good. The US of Amerika continues to lead the world (“USA, #1, USA, #1” I can almost hear them chanting) with over 70,000 new cases, again. Not a record for the US, but still a strong showing. This from the country that was listed as the top, best, first in the world, ready to deal with a pandemic. I think it is time to acknowledge that decades of self-delusion about Amerika’s standing in the world rankings of almost anything other than money and bombs has been a fiction.

Still, back to the pandemic for a moment. Cases are surging, and the US count of 4 million cases, as horrible as that may be, is still ‘only’ ~1+% of the population. And if the numbers are “10x higher” as some are projecting, then that is still only ~10+%, out of a “herd immunity” requirement in the 60% - 70% minimum. So we are looking at a 6x in cases and deaths before the US reaches “herd immunity” (if this is even possible based on the potential weakening of antibody loads after a few months).

Now, the case mortality rate as measured by the ratio of deaths to resolved cases is falling, at least in the developed world, and that is a very good thing. It tells me two things; that there is better identification of cases, many of which will be ‘mild’, and that therapeutics and medical responses are improving as the virus is better understood. That’s the good news.

The UK is an interesting counterpoint to the US of Amerika. The total cases count is at about .3% of the population, officially based on testing. And the number of people tested is running at almost 20% of the population. So I suspect that we can rule out a 10x infected rate because it should have shown up pretty clearly by now.

Conversely, the US of Amerika, where Trump continues to say that “if there were fewer tests, there would be fewer cases”, the percentage of people tested is actually lower than in the UK. This suggests that the US infection rate is higher than the UK (a former #1 shit-show in the Covid stakes) regardless of the number of tests.

And if we accept the premise that case mortality rates are declining due to earlier identification and treatment, then any delays through lower testing rates will actually directly lead to higher mortality rates. Trump is saying that he would rather have more dead people and a lower number of identified cases.

Meanwhile, the US markets continue to coast along and even edge upward, defying fundamentals and any expectation that markets are actually engaging in meaningful ‘price discovery’.

In the past month, I have completely changed my mind. I no longer think there will be the market crash that I’ve (and not me alone by any stretch of the imagination) been predicting. Every morning I look at the markets from yesterday and look at the futures for the coming day. Nothing seems to hurt these markets.

So in changing my mind completely, I’m becoming more convinced and confident in my thinking that the markets will not go down. Certainly, there will be blips, but I think the Covid-Crash is behind us, and that markets will now continue to hover for some time to come.

The Amerikan, and therefore world, markets are bifurcated. There are the equity markets (and luxury goods and property), and there are the corner shop and coffee shop markets.

The equity markets are the place that the Fed induced inflation is happening, with too much money chasing too few goods and services (equities and luxury goods and property). The money that the Fed has created to purchase corporate bonds is not stimulating the economy, it is propping up share prices and balance sheets, most of which are sham constructs waiting for reality to arrive, however slowly.

Government unemployment benefits are propping up the ‘real’ economy and ensuring that rent can be paid (and even then the amount of unpaid rent is staggering), groceries and coffee bought, and the flow of consumer goods and services can continue. That stimulus is keeping enough new money in the system to avoid deflation due to too little money chasing too many goods and services. Supply and demand still rules, and when the stimulus ends, the supply of money in the ‘real’ economy will fall like a stone, and the bottom of the economy will see real price deflation.

But at the top of the economy, the ‘market’ economy, there will still be bucket-loads of money with no purpose and nothing to purchase. So inflation will continue at that end of the market. So as people begin to starve, the markets will stay high, and the Wall Street and Executive Suite bonuses will continue to flow – for some time anyway.

And the Fed will keep pumping. It has little choice. It has limited tools, and cannot tell companies to take the money and spend it on the ‘real’ economy; only the Federal Government can do that. And patience at the Federal Government level is wearing thin. So even if the stimulus continues, it will be at a reduced level, and that will start the process of deflation in the ‘real’ economy.

The rest, well, I’m guessing that the ‘market’ economy will do just fine. For another six months or so? Forever? Who knows? But I’m not betting on it falling any time soon.

Trumpists come in 3 types

It is becoming more and more difficult to remain detached in any way, so of course this morning I fought with Trumpists on the Panama Expats group on FB. I enjoy it because it is so easy. And honestly, it is fun. 

After all, not all Amerikans are now locked inside the Plague States of Amerika. Some became expats many years ago. Now the sit in countries that took them in, and they insult their host countries and praise Trump.

Watching Trumpists online, before I could be ill, I posted:

Continued support for Trump today is a sign of one of three things:

1. Wealth - he's great for you if you are rich,
2. You do not have the attention span to actually read what is happening, so you don't care that you've been conned.
3. Stupidity - you failed your IQ test, and he's conned you,

To see which applies, first check your wallet and bank account, then read something, and if you cannot or will not, then number three applies.

Those three options are how I actually feel about those who still support Trump. They've had plenty of time to see what he actually is and what he is actually doing. If they still support him, I can only put it down to one of those three.


I keep saying that I’m done with Trumpists, or at least done being nice to them. The level of delusion and demonstrated disregard for other humans is difficult to comprehend, unless there is a national psychosis of some kind. For so many years they have been taught that Amerika is the greatest, in everything. People Want to some to Amerika, because Amerika is the land for Freedom. They pledge allegiance to the Flag as if it is an icon in a church, all the while spouting rubbish about how Amerika is a “Christian” country. If Amerika is Christian, then it most certainly is not the Christian community described in the Acts of the Apostles. 

I knew people who supported Trump at the beginning of his presidency. Good people, I think, who firmly believed that he was different, and that the office of president would bring out the best (or better) in him. That his no-nonsense style would result in international agreements (especially with North Korea; remember how that turned out). I understand that, the desire to believe in something, and to believe that in the good that Amerika can be (and has been).

The Shining City on the Hill. 

But that was not to be, and Trump has turned everything he touched to mud or shit. He has destroyed Amerikan prestige in the world while he seeks to destroy Amerikan virtues at home, and is actively working to destroy hard-won gains in improving the environment.

And through all of that, there has been a core of believers who cannot and will not change their minds, no matter what he does. No matter what happens, only the greatness of Amerika remains in their vision. As it all turns to shit around them, as the death toll climbed to 50,000, and then to 100,000 ("a good result", yes, he said that) and when it reaches 150,000 sometime next week or the week after, they will still support this conman. 

As those that are in the US are locked into the country, because their arrogance would not allow them to be locked in their cities, let alone their homes for the good of all of them, each other, they still believe him. They still support him.

I can only hope that some of the Trumpists that unfriended me have changed their views, giving me some residual hope that they are the good people I thought I knew. 

But the Trumpists simple will not learn, and the only option is to tell them like it is, and I’m no longer worried or sorry to upset them. They are racists and ignorant. And yet, the “rich” ones do not care about anyone or anything else. 

I especially like being called a "Marxist". Or, if I accept that Amerika is not the Greatest and Trump the Greatest President Ever, then either I am a Marxist or have been indoctrinated by them. 

They do not care, they do not read, and they think that everything that has gone well for them was because of their personal greatness and hard work and because Jesus loves them. Everything that has gone wrong for anyone else is their own fault.

They live in Panama, they can see the starving children, the slums, and the poverty and pollution. They can see with their own eyes. But they protect themselves by falling back on the "its all their own fault" excuse. Maybe they (the Panamains) didn't work hard enough. Or maybe they don't love Jesus enough. Or maybe even worse, Jesus doesn't love them as much as Jesus Loves Amerika. 

This arrogance is why Amerika has the highest outbreak, and why Amerikans are now the laughing stock (when we are not looking on in horror) of the world. The arrogance of Amerikans (not all, of course not, but enough to tarnish the image of an entire country) is simply beyond the understanding of the rest of the world. I served in the US military, I “paid my debt” for growing up with an American passport. I support their, and everyone’s, right to say anything they want to. And yes, I think that is and should be a universal right, even though many countries do not see things that way. 

But I cannot and will not support Trump or any longer give refuge to Trumpists.

They are a blight on Amerika, and a festering sore on the world.

Gringos and Pandemic - not a good mix

Latin America as we know it today is the product of the Conquista and the conquistadors. In 1532 Pizarro and his band of conquistadors, with support from European diseases, destroyed the Incan Empire and imposed their rule, even though they represented but a tiny fraction of the population. In most of Latin America, it is just history, and today most of the "locals" actually have conquistador or subsequent Spanish (and lately Italian and other European) immigrant or slave blood. It is ancient history. 

But in Panama, there is a new conquistador, one that was (revisionist history) thrown out and national sovereignty regained with the 'return' of the Canal and the Zone to Panamanian control. Yet the new conquistadors continue to arrive, ever after most were thrown out (or more accurately, departed when the jobs for Gringos disappeared).

Panama, which seemed to do quite well early on in its fight against Covid-19, now seems to be ‘losing the plot’ with the number of cases jumping by close to 1000 daily, and hospitals becoming overloaded. I am so glad that we got Francoise out of there and home. While I did think it would be a reasonably ‘safe place’, that was predicated on a couple of factors, including her location in the countryside, and on the reactions of the community to the virus and Gringo/Panamanian relations. The second has negated any advantage from the first, and I fear that the entire Gringo community in the greater Mariato area and that coast will be in danger is this gets much worse. 

The “pitchforks and torches” may be a real threat down there, especially with the apparent history of the wealthy landowners being less than happy with the influx of Gringos who provide alternative employment for people who should be kept stupid and working manual labour on and for the rice plantations. About the only other endorsed employment (it seems, from the perspective of the landowners) being fishing and smallholdings farming for the local communities, and turning a blind eye to the drug runners who cruise the coast. 

The ‘word on the street’ is that wealthy families do not support more Gringos because they create competition. That increases the costs for the wealthy families and reduces their feudal authority. And when they lose the mayor that they bought/rented, then they need to either wait-out a less corrupt mayor, or find a way to corrupt the new mayor. Access to relative wealth and acceptance as a local authority is sometimes enough, especially if they can line their own pockets with the cash that drops off the central government trucks that should otherwise be building roads, bridges, schools, etc. 

Into this environment comes a mixed bag of Gringos, many with libertarian ideas of escape from authority and the ability to buy anything they want, including ‘freedom’ to do anything they want, including ignoring the local government and people, unless those local people are building their houses and providing incidental manual labour – cleaning, gardening, minor construction and repairs for example. 

These Gringos are truly foreigners, as there are very few Gringo on that side of the Azuero Peninsula who are married to Panamanians, and especially to countryside Panamanians. The nearest historical comparison that I can think of are the conquistadors in Peru in the 1530s, who grabbed large tracks of land and set up their haciendas, and lorded over the (in their view) frail, stupid, and exploitable Inca. Now I need to be clear, these Gringos did not conquer the land, nor defeat the indigenous people, the vast majority of whom are descended from European Spaniards intermixed with Native Mayans and their cousins. Nor are they an occupying army that has burned and raped its way through the country. That was done centuries ago by the Spanish.

The Panamanians, of course, have forgotten that ancient history, and the local propaganda machines now are making sure that everyone knows just who the invaders are; the Gringos from America who stole their land and canal, which only the hard-fought protests and deaths of martyrs reclaimed for the nation. The Canal Museum in Panama City drips with the struggle, and in rejection of the invader who stole the sovereign solid of beloved Panama, all the displays information is in Spanish only. The American invasion in 1989 didn't help.

Unfortunately though, some new Gringos ('new' in the past couple of decades, after the handover of the Canal and dismantling of the Zone) seem to share some of the conquistador attitudes.  "This is our land, we acquired it fairly and we can do what we want with it". We do not need to share with you, as you are inferior and lazy. And we will do what we want as a community within but excluding the surrounding community. We will even eat of Gringo owned establishments, even if they are slightly more expensive than local establishments, with food and service that is no better than what if produces and service by the local community.

An elite cannot remain forever in such a position without creating hostility, even if in good (or even moderate) economic times there is mutual acceptance of the boundaries. But as the situation deteriorates, the underlying animosity within the local communities can grow. Poor locals see people much like themselves, but rich and, in their eyes, just as lazy as they are, but with money and power. Where did this authority and money come from, and why is it not being shared. After all, these people (Gringos) are no different from us, as we see every day. Yet they are here, they are rich, and they deserve what they have no more than we deserve the benefits of wealth. And if they are the same as us, then why can we not have what they have?

In a land where income is defined literally by how hard physically a person works, the idea of intellectual capital or 'knowledge working' resulting in 'wealth' is simply incomprehensible. Manual labour pays $15/day (with the Gringos distorting the market at $20/day) while "brick work" (the local equivalent of a tradesman) goes for as much as $30 - $40/day, when they can find work. The amount you work and the amount you sweat defines how much you earn and what you are worth.

Covid-19 is a disease that impacts the poor disproportionally. They have less access to medicine and doctors, their underlying health is weaker (due to a number of factors, almost all economic), they live in tighter quarters without adequate ventilation, they must work or they will not eat and their families will not eat, and the lack of adequate education reduces their understanding of the impact of hygiene as a factor in combating disease. 

But they know that this disease did not spread from the poor to the poor and from the rich to the poor. They know very well that the rich brought this disease into their country, their city, then their region and town. They know that the rich travelled to Spain and Italy on holiday, something impossible for them, and brought this back with them. Now the rich blame the poor for inadequate hygiene and failing to “social distance” and quarantine. 

"Se imaginan a cuántas personas habrá contagiado?  Todos estos familiares a su vez tuvieron contacto con sus familias, amigos, compañeros de trabajo y de estudios!!😱" (Can you imagine how many people it will have infected? All these relatives in turn had contact with their families, friends, colleagues and students !! 😱)

This picture is from Ecuador, but the scenario is the same across Latin American, and certainly the same in Panama. One woman returns from Spain, and there is a large family gathering and party to welcome her home. She carries the Covid-19 virus in her. Soon the virus is running rampant. Servants catch the disease, and as servants rarely live in the employers home any longer, they take the virus back into their communities. 

It was the "rich" that brought the disease in from outside the country. 

And on the “Dark Side” as a friend calls the Mariato side of the Azuero Peninsula, they know that the rich Gringos around them will be taken care of if they get sick. But if you are poor, you might get some treatment in the local Saludo, and who knows, they might even take you to the big city to a real hospital to treat you, or you family member, who by the time they are taken to the city, will already have infected everyone else in the family, and probably other local families.

Meanwhile Gringos were surfing when all outdoor activity was banned. And when they were told to stop, they complained. They are special and not like Panamanians, and they own their beaches. They are different and the rules should not apply to them. 

There is too much opportunity for anger, and that will not end well. Especially when there is a wealthy elite who have a vested interest in limiting the impact of the Gringo influx into their area of the country.

I am worried.

Finishing the conquistador comparison – the Inca revolted and slaughtered the isolated conquistadors in their new haciendas, and marched on Cuzco. The revolt eventually was put down, though it did take a year, and required a re-conquest of the Inca territories. A revolt against Gringos would be put down, but it might take some time, and the isolated Gringo properties will be at risk for quite some time. 

It needs to be remembered that the Panamanians (some, not all) view the Gringos not fundamentally different from the Conquistadors, in that the Gringos occupied the Zone and for decades extracted the wealth of the country through control of the Canal and the revenues of the Canal. While there is a huge amount of nuance required in this, such as the rationale for the Zone, Panama’s acceptance of the ‘deal’ in exchange for independence from Bogata, and a US Congressional mandate that the Canal be run at break-even, there is in Panama today a nationalistic streak that is using the Canal as a prop in a revisionist history that centres around a betrayal of Panama. That revisionist history is used to explain why Panama is still poor and why it is someone else’s fault that they were occupied and exploited. 

That nationalism carries over to label Gringos invaders, who while they provide jobs (some, temporarily) and incomes to some, are still not of and never will be Panamanian. They will always be an elite that has imposed themselves. Foreigners are not welcome in Panama, no matter what is said and what you might see. They are foreigners. They are to be exploited for all that can be extracted before they realise that they are being robbed - then move on to the next Gringo if you can.

It is that revisionism, coupled I must say with the treatment of Panamanians as inferior by some Gringos, and of course with the introduction of Covid-19 by the rich, that will contribute to what may happen.

Oh, and one other minor historical note: the Incan conquest and subsequent revolt took place within the context of a multi-year pandemic that killed half or more of the Incan population.

Covid-19 and the need for Conspiracies

Covid-19 has been with us for six months, from early December 2019 until now, May 2020. It is not going away any time soon. Another thing that is not going away is the opportunity for perfectly normal people to believe and share almost any conspiracy theory that you can imagine. I admit that I have been losing my temper with people, and have probably endangered some friendships by telling people to stop spouting complete rubbish.

But rubbish seems to be easy to spread, and difficult to refute. And so often, it seems that as soon as one theory has been put to bed, another must be found to take its place. I have come to the conclusion that some people desperately need Covid-19 to be part of a conspiracy, and not simply the pandemic spread of a novel virus. Yes, the situation is pretty fundamentally out of our control, and we like control. Take away control of someone's life, and they will respond accordingly. Let people feel they have control, if only in that they have a mental framework within which to place the happenings of the world around them, and they will thrive and shine.

Throw entire populations into a pandemic and a not-insignificant number of people will seek any way to reassert "control", and the best way is to demonstrate a greater understanding and hidden knowledge. The ability to provide "the answer" gives each of us a little more control over what is happening around us. We can do that by trusting the science and "mainstream news", and by reading as widely as possible. Or we can do that by seeking out the easy answers that prove that this is not a natural event. A natural event that many leading scientists and thinkers have been predicting for decades.

So here are some of the conspiracy theories that I've had fill up my in-box, my Facebook feed, WhatsApp, and otherwise 'reasonable but fringe' websites. Frequently they come with a "watch this before it is removed from the Internet" or "watch and share before it is censored". Some of the more outlandish articles have statements like "Facebook and the MSM (Mainstream Media) are trying to silence me. Support me getting the Truth out". 

I am only mentioning some here. I'm not even going to attempt to refute any, because frankly I am already exhausted from doing that when friends sent or told me these "new theories" as to why Covid-19 is here, or why it is not the such a problem. If they have one thing in common, it is that they are presented, written or on video, in calm, authoritative voices meant to soothe by their competence.

There is a warehouse full of drugs

Before there was even a Lockdown, I sat down with a friend who told me, conspiratorially of course, that this was baked up by Big Pharma, and that soon (back in February) there would be an announcement that a drug exists that can treat Covid-19, and that Big Pharma already has stockpiles of the drug ready to be distributed. And of course, the shareholders and the companies special friends and politicians were going to make billions. Mark my words, billions.

In fact, just like with tobacco companies, the CEOs of Big Pharma all got into a room and agreed that this time it is 's turn, and next time it will be another company's turn. I'm now asking them when will the warehouse full of drugs be unveiled. Being fair, for a short while it appeared that Hydroxycloroquine was exactly that drug, with warehouses full of the stuff.

It's just the flu

No, it isn't. Really. We know the flu, and we have vaccines for the flu. And we will have vaccines for Covid-19 one day, but not now. And China does not lock down 400 million people and tank it economy over a flu. In addition, the annual death toll from flu has already been exceeded, by far. But hey, this is no worse than the flu. Everyone has had it, and for almost everyone, it has been so mild that they didn't even know they had it. You'll see, when they can test everyone for antibodies, everyone (or most people) will already have antibodies.

It is caused by 5G

Probably the most stupid of the lot, however, has been the claim that Covid-19 is caused by 5G and electromagnetic waves. Video after video sent to me from such smart people, showing other so smart people talking soothingly and authoritatively that viruses actually come from within the body and are created by 5G and other electromagnetic waves. And, we should remember that in 1917 electromagnetic energy increased as international radio systems were introduced. It was almost fun to refute this one, until it was shared with my once too often. Finally, I started refuting other conspiracies by saying that whatever they were drivelling on about next was wrong, because the real cause of Covid-19 was 5G. I’m not sure everyone understood my irony.

It is a Bill Gates plot

The hatred and envy embedded in this are actually quite sad. If he is that rich, and has been focusing on malaria and other vaccines (and a vast range of other public health issues) for decades, it must be because he wants everyone vaccinated with a microchip to track everything we do. Why? Because he is evil. Oh, and (thankfully this has only been intimated and not overtly stated to me) he must be part of the Illuminati and the global conspiracy to take away our rights to own guns and not be vaccinated. Yeah, right.

It was made in a lab (in China)

No, it wasn't. It may have escaped from a lab due to clumsy practices, but it was not "made in a lab". I was sent a video explaining that the virus contains HIV DNA and that the splice-marks were visible in the DNA. That video seems to have sunk into the bog where it belongs, though I have every confidence it will resurface again and again. This also allows for the use of the phrase "China Virus" as a form of dog-whistle racism. "But it came from China", gets a retort from me of "then we should be calling it the Kansas Flu, because it did not come out of Spain, but out of Kansas".

Death rates are inflated

The reported death rates are false and inflated. Anyone who dies in a nursing home is counted as a Covid-19 victim. Well, if anything, the numbers are being undercounted simply because countries have been overwhelmed by the numbers of death, and the inability to test all corpses.  This is not to say that all countries have bodies in the streets as was seen in early March in Guayaquil in Ecuador. Not at all. But in many countries, morgue and mortician services have been overwhelmed. They are designed to handle a certain number, the average number, of deaths on any given day or any week. Covid-19 death rates are higher than these averages.

The WHO will pay you for "Victims"

                    

In the US, this is "the federal government pays states more if they have more victims, so Blue states are exaggerating the deaths for money". This conspiracy theory is a little more insidious, as in fact the WHO (and the federal government) and other organisations are providing additional financial support and grants to countries (or states) with higher deaths. But the reason is pretty simple. Sick people place a higher economic burden on already stretched resources. Therefore, in order to mitigate or hopefully avoid a collapse in local healthcare services, more resources (including financial) are applied where the need is highest.

Finally, this is all (China's, the WHO's, Obama's) Fault

A new virus leaps the species boundary, as has happened at least 2 other times since 2000 (SARS-1 and MERS), or has mutated from a previous form (various Influenza viruses), yet it has to be someone's fault. Being able to blame someone or something for the mysterious appearance of the virus is a way to regain personal control over the narrative.

Instead, maybe we should be looking at how the pandemic has been managed. In this, we do have a modicum of control, in that most of us live in or are citizens of countries in which we will be able to express our confidence in leadership at the ballot box. If we cannot vote in a particular country, we can at least raise our voices to remind people who can, of the quality of leadership in their country. New Zealand stands out for effective national leadership, as does Greece. Both countries have experienced far lower infection and death rates due directly to the quality of national leadership.

It is easy to contrast that with the United States and the United Kingdom; two countries in which the national scientific and health infrastructures should have been able to provide leadership with the information needed to respond effectively. Both countries have failed. National “leadership” (or lack of) in the United States continues to be an embarrassment and is contributing to that country’s shockingly high death toll. But there is hope, and if the best way to regain control from the conspiracy theorists is to vote, then there is hope for the US in November, though not for the UK for a few years.

In Closing

Some people need conspiracies. Without conspiracies, the world becomes both tiresome and unpredictable at the same time, and they have to acknowledge that they do not understand the machinations that arrive at various outcomes. I've heard perfectly reasonable people tell me that the "Jews" control the world and that the Washington Post is the "Rothschild-Post" and thereby explaining why you cannot trust anything that they write. Pointing out that Jeff Bezons bought it in 20013 just gets met with puzzlement and a shrug of the shoulders.

Of course, some conspiracies theories turn out to be right. But Covid-19 is not caused by 5G, Bill Gates is a philanthropist and not an evil genius attempting to have everyone vaccinated with some "mark of the beast", and no, Covid-19 was not manufactured by pharmaceutical companies as a way of making billions of dollars. We don't need conspiracy theories to understand how this happened; we need only look at the incompetence of leadership in so many countries.

Unless incompetent leadership is itself the conspiracy?