Talk about “tactically significant”. Sure, on the battlefield, the forces fight it out for control of the Russian's first, and now second line of defence. ISW (Institute for the Study of Warfare) has declared that Ukraine is making "tactically significant" breakthroughs. Okay. But I suspect an easily predicted event with longer-term consequences happened yesterday.
Wagner mercenary chief Prigozhin’s aeroplane was shot out of the sky, with him and some of his top henchmen onboard. Certainly, the Russian media was saying that he was aboard. There was a second Wagner aeroplane in the air at the same time, same or similar course, and it returned to Moscow, empty, one presumes. And if it wasn’t empty on arrival, it was soon after.
Today, Russia has confirmed that Prigozhin's body and that of his number 2 have been identified from the ten bodies recovered from the crash.
I had to remind myself last night when the news broke, that “I have never killed anyone, but I have read some obituary notices with great satisfaction.” - Clarence Darrow, I think.
Still, that had to be the most predicted “fall from a window” possible. Putin does not like disloyalty, no matter where it comes from. And in any dose. And he deals with it. Not all at once, but he does deal with it. There is too much history of his having rivals taken out, no matter how realistic a rival they may be. The trick for a Putin is to put ambitious people into positions of power, but then snuff them out as soon as they get ideas of their own. A difficult balancing act.
So, how does this play out....?
Prigoshin is dead, and so are hit top commanders, at least, those top enough to travel with him. But what now?
Will the residual Wagner remain “loyal” to his memory, or will they switch to Putin and the MoD? Will they be purged regardless? If they think they will be purged, how will they react?
This is not a nice bunch of people, and even the 'nice' guys can be terribly damaged by the fight. Fighting for the “good guys” and a "just cause" still created the Timothy McVeighs who went home to attack the government they felt had let them down. Do the Wagnerites have any doubt what awaits them on their return? How many Russian McVeighs were born over the past two months.
They cannot believe any of Putin’s promises now. And Putin cannot trust them, or believe that they will believe his lies now. That leaves only one of two fates for them: death in a penal colony or suicide battalion (slowly or quickly) or exile to Africa with the hope of not dying too quickly. Return to Russia as honoured patriots and heroes is not on the cards, as they will never be trusted.
And while not all Wagnerites were convicts recruited out of the jails, they will all be tainted by that brush, and no Wagnerite will be able to fit back into Russian society, at least not unless they hide their Wagner credentials.
Furthermore, every veteran will need to demonstrate that they were not Wagner, and every veteran will be under suspicion, no matter what unit they served in. The damage to the country's faith in its warriors will last for decades.
Does this mean an active 5th column? Do they defect to the Ukrainian puppet Russian opposition forces? I do not know. But in the corridors and shadows of the GUR in Kyiv, you can bet they are looking for ways to engage with the Wagnerites to cause havoc, or simply to defect, thus increasing distrust of all other Wagnerites. The simple fact that this will be happening will further alienate Wagnerites from any redemption at home.
Another alternative will be for groups or individuals to make their way to restive "Republics" within Russia, becoming potential assets should they attempt to change their status within the Union.
Do not expect 20,000 or so hardened mercenaries, many 'former' criminals, to allow themselves to be escorted to a new Katyn Forest.
