Elections are won by who comes out to vote and who stays home and by which side has the money to spend on advertising and access. The Democrats have the deeper pockets by far at the moment, so they will be able to flood the airwaves.
But the other side may become problematic. When voters simply cannot stomach a candidate or policies but equally will never vote for the other party, they elect to stay home. And they stay home because they say, “Not in my name.”
Gaza may become such an issue for Biden and the Democrats. He is setting the policy, and his administration is being seen to support Israel no matter what. Stern diplomatic words do not mean anything to the voters because they are diplomatic words, words designed to convey desired changes in other countries' policies or practices. Rarely do governments say, “Do this or else”. There is an implied “or else” associated with the diplomatic words, but too often we have seen the US fail to follow through on the “or else" (also known as “Red Lines”).
In Syria, the US made it clear through diplomatic speak that the use of chemical weapons would be a red line. Assad ignored Obama, and Obama did nothing material or materially visible to the public in response. The US said what their red line was, and it was ignored.
The US is in that situation with Netanyahu and Israel now. The diplomatic speak is telling Israel to back off, to protect civilians, and to let aid flow. But Netanyahu and the Israeli state and military are ignoring Biden. They know they can. Biden must respond strongly.
Sanctions against a handful of the vilest settlers is a start, but it is window dressing. Highly visible but meaningless in terms of engendering actual change in Israeli policy. Too little, potentially too late, and with virtually no chance of creating any meaningful change.
What Gaza does not have is time. What Biden does not have is time. There would seem to be a golden opportunity to do something meaningful, and not to present the Democratic Party and Biden as stooges for Netanyahu. People are dying. They are starving. Soon there will be pictures of Palestinian children with distended bellies, glassy eyes, and mothers too weak to hold them.
When those photos go viral, and they will, either Biden responds meaningfully, or the consequences could be highly damaging in November.
“But Trump is worse” is not a valid response to this crisis. Trump only needs to keep his mouth shut on Israel and he comes across as the lesser problem. But he won't keep his mouth shut. He will say in classic Trumpingly fashion “Only I can solve this". And he will follow that up with “When I’m President, the war will be over in 24 hours." And there will be people who will believe him.
Some Democrats will believe him—not because he has any diplomatic skills, but precisely because he does not. He will say, “No more aid,” and Israel will listen. It is pretty obvious that a Bull in a China shop is what is needed right now, and Trump certainly fits that bill. (realistically Trump will do nothing except look for how he can have his pockets lined out of this.)
Biden does not have the time for diplomatic niceties. Whatever he does needs to be done soon enough to push the crisis from the front page, and that will require the bombs to stop falling and the tanks (and soldiers) to stop shooting.
The sooner this happens, the sooner the voters can worry about other issues.
I don't know how long, scientifically, it will take for people to allow Gaza to fade into the background. But someone does know. They know exactly how long it takes for messaging to change minds. And they should be working on this right now (as I expect they are). They also will know what it will really take to change the script, and that will be more than Israel will be willing to accept.
Chuck Schumer's call for fresh elections in Israel is an indication of just how seriously some Democrats are taking this. For the ranking Jewish Senator to make that statement in complete defiance of diplomatic norms should demonstrate just how serious the situation is, and their understanding of the damage that is being caused.
Here I'm talking about Amerikan voters, not the global community. And I'm not talking about the Palestinians in Gaza because they do not get to vote, anywhere. But because for Democrats (and Republicans), it is only the American voter that matters in this. Democrats need voters to come to the polls. Republicans gleefully hope that Democrats will stay home, saying to themselves, “Not in my name”. And anyone who thinks that won't happen is kidding themselves.
Biden is running out of time.
He needs to response, and respond big, and do it now.
What could be done? He could announce that the US will deliver aid to south and north Gaza, trucks and convoys flying the American flag. He could announce that the US is investigating some number of situations and individuals for potential war crimes, including senior unnamed members of the Israeli government.
There are many other things he could do.
He is running out of time.
