Iran Prepares to Attack the GCC, while Trump attempts to Distract

The scene is being set for Iran to attack GCC civilian infrastructure, just as they threatened to if the US attacked their civilian infrastructure (and which the US did overnight and over the past days). Of course, Iran will be the aggressor on paper and electronic ink. But the GCC government will know that the attacks are because the US and Israel attacked Iran, without any notice or agreement from them. 

But that is not what is being reported today. Trump gave his Election Fraud speech and didn’t declare that Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff were illegitimate Senators. That’s a relief. He did claim that China tried to interfere with the 2020 election and released declassified documents that show that Russia tried to help him in 2020.

Meanwhile, the US bombed civilian infrastructure in Iran, exactly what Iran said would result in their striking civilian infrastructure in the Gulf countries. 

This is from Al Jazeera this morning:

The United States military has launched hundreds of air attacks across Iran over the past week, killing at least 35 people and wounding 300, according to Iranian health officials.

The US, which has reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, said it targeted military sites along the country’s southern coast and near the Strait of Hormuz, despite a ceasefire agreement.

Iran, meanwhile, carried out attacks on US military facilities across the region, raising fears of a return to all-out war.

 

Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General Jasem al-Budaiwi on Wednesday condemned Iran’s “treacherous” attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan, including strikes on infrastructure and facilities that injured Kuwaiti military personnel, saying they risked dragging the region into “further chaos and instability”.

It is worth looking at some of the statements in there. “Hundreds of air attacks across Iran” - and yet, the following paragraph includes “despite a ceasefire agreement”. The third paragraph says, “attacks on US military site” and “fears of a return to all-out-war". 

The US attack “despite”, yet Iran’s response threatens a “return” to all-out-war. Subtle, but not subtle allocation of accountability to the attacks. 

But equally important is that Iran is reported, not by Iran but by Al Jazeera, as striking US military sites. Then in the final paragraph above, the GCC Secretary General condemns Iran’s “treacherous” attacks.

Even the GCC understands the contradiction in what they are saying, and they know that no matter how hard they attempt to paint Iran as the aggressor, they know that the US and Israel started this war. Allies inform allies when they are about to start a war, especially if they will need those allies’ airspace and ground facilities to carry out their attacks. 

They know that attacks on their civilian infrastructure, threatening millions of people, will happen because the US continues its war, because Trump has no way out of the war he started. They will be the ‘collateral damage’ resulting from Trump’s folly.

Up until now, the GCC has been willing to “go along” with the American/Israeli war because the cost to them has been financial (temporarily, they expect). The attacks on their territories have been, on the whole, attacks on American bases housed in their territories, with some direct attacks for optics (hotels in Dubai) or responses to attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure (the attack on the Ras Laffan natural gas facilities in Qatar). The GCC know that American attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure could unleash Iranian responses against any of their own infrastructure, not just American bases. 

The frantic behind-the-scenes diplomacy right now is not about getting Iran and the US back to the negotiating table; they know there is zero trust left. The frantic diplomacy is about how to bring Trump and Hegseth to heel. How can they force Trump and Hegseth to stop their war, a war that could kill millions in the GCC (and Iran) and beyond?

But in Washington, attention is distracted by worn-out lies about the 2020 election in anticipation of declaring the 2026 midterm elections to be “rigged” and therefore void in some way or other.

Nothing is being done in Washington to reduce the impact of Trump’s war, a war that will continue to blow back on him, his administration, and his sycophants in Congress. In fact, they are doing everything they can to expand the war, to force otherwise sidelined (but under the gun) allies into the war. 

Stupid Trump Will Get the US Thrown Out of the Gulf, Soon

The man really is very stupid. He seems to believe that only he has agency and that, by telling lies, everyone will believe him each time until he exposes the lie and starts the process all over. He believes that he can use the Amerikan legal system (or principles at least) against his domestic enemies AND anyone and any group or country in the world, forever and without any countermoves of effect. Deny (lie that all is fixed), delay (lie again), and litigate (bomb them), restart the process, and fundamentally, outlast them.

He does not realise that he is being played by Iran. They have decided they are going to destroy him, and that is exactly what their strategy is all about right now. 

They are playing him at his own game, letting him make declarations, only desultorily reminding the world that they are Trump’s declarations, not theirs. And each time he backs down to restart the clock (a variation on his legal strategy in US cases – wait, then file a new lawsuit), the world knows what he is doing and looks to Tehran for more, dare I say it, balanced information.

His history has included continuing the cycle until the opponent is bankrupt, or until he files for bankruptcy (much rarer) and blackmails the banks into keeping him personally solvent for the next round.

Today he is trying the same tactics on the international stage, and he thinks he’s getting away with it. “The Strait is open, and traffic is flowing”, while the world can look at the maps and see the lie in front of their faces.

On no planet does this look like “open and traffic is flowing”.

Strait of Hormuz traffic as at 08:00 CET, 16 July 2026

And to all casual observation, and certainly to his sycophants who cannot survive even after being told the truth, he is succeeding. 

Apologies for inserting a sports analogy, but it is World Cup season: We are still early in this game. Halftime is still months away, and the second half is going to be brutal. Leading into the midterms, Trump thinks he’s winning, or at least he’s doing everything he can to be able to claim a win.

Iran is not playing. Or maybe more accurately, Iran is playing him, not his game.

My expectation is that Iran will string Trump along just as he thinks he is stringing Iran along.

It bears repeating: Iran has been preparing for a war with the US, the ‘West’, and the Gulf States for over 45 years. They’ve implemented a command-and-control system designed to survive decapitation, as we have seen. They know “the Great Satan” will be back, and they know the war will hurt. They survived almost ten years of war with Iraq, and they fully expect the war with Trump to be protracted. 

They know they can ‘outlast’ Trump, and they will.

To Iran, the alternative is another war in six months or a year, and continued sanctions and attempted strangulation of their economy and intentional destabilisation of their regime. Peace on Trump’s terms, or even peace resulting from Trump’s boredom, will not deliver any improvement in the longer-term prospects for Iran or the regime.

Trump has been preparing for a war with Iran for nine months, at most, and has surrounded himself with sycophants who have not been telling him the truth about Iranian capabilities and will to fight. Before the war, Trump was told that there was a risk that Iran would close the Strait, but he shrugged that off and, and his chief military advisor did not adequately assert the level of risk (a certainty).

Venezuela was a fantastic success (watch this space, however), and there was no reason that Iran would not be an even bigger success. And if it wasn’t a success, at least it will have provided a nationalism-inspiring distraction from the Epstein Files and other domestic frustrations. Any blowback from war with Iran would be manageable, and possibly even advantageous in keeping his minions in order. After all, for “47 years” Iran has been at war with Amerika, so anything that goes wrong is, of course, Obama's or Biden’s fault.

He even used the word “excursion” in describing the war. 

Iran does not see this as an Amerikan "excursion"; it sees this as Iran’s opportunity to push the US out of the Gulf, completely. And they will fight this war to accomplish exactly that.

If the US continues to attack civilian infrastructure in Iran, or attacks power stations or desalination plants, Iran will respond against the Gulf States. Until now, the restraint has been incredible. When we read that Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, or even Saudi Arabia have been attacked, in almost every case, the attacks are aimed at US bases in those countries, or are responses to attacks on their (Iranian) oil infrastructure.

But Iran will reach a breaking point, and they will warn their Gulf neighbours that any attacks that use their neighbour's airspace or facilities based in the Gulf countries will be considered an attack by those Gulf countries. At that time, the Gulf countries will need to make a choice: come under attack themselves (not attacks on Amerikan bases) or stop the Amerikans from using them as launch points, whether ground, sea or airspace.

When Iran starts attacking Gulf desalination plants, that will signal the endgame for Amerikan hegemony. Yes, the Gulf states will be in open warfare against Iran, but that will be little different from the current status of letting someone else be in open warfare with Iran on their behalf.

In summary, Trump cannot win this war, and will be humiliated, and the US will be forced into a humiliating retreat, no matter how he spins this.