Hormuz is the new Suez

I’ve seen more than one report suggesting that, since the US Navy escorted ships through the Strait of Hormuz in the 1980s, it can do so again now. That is a mistake, and a very dangerous mistake. The situations are not analogous at all. Maybe we should be looking at the Suez Crisis instead.

 

In the 1980s “Tanker War”, Iran and Iraq extended their land war to each other’s oil export capabilities, including both terminals and ships. Iran mined the Straits, and Iraq attacked ships. To restart the flow of ships, the US raised its flag on tankers and escorted them through the Gulf and the Straits. Both sides avoided attacking US-flagged ships, because to do so would have been an attack on the US, and that was something that neither side wanted to allow, at least not allow themselves to be viewed as the one attacking the US Navy. 

 

That is not the case today. 

 

Israel and its puppet, the United States, are at war with Iran. There is no other word for it, no matter how President Trump might want to dance around it to avoid breaching the US Constitution. Nonetheless, this is a war. And in a war, the opponent's military assets are fair game. Likewise, economic assets are equally ‘in play’ if it hurts the opponent's ability to sustain military action. 

Today, Iran wants nothing more than the US Navy to saunter through the Strait of Hormuz. I suspect they would even allow one or two ships to pass on the way in. Maybe even more. They can wait. They can wait until those ships want to leave.  

 

Once Iran has ‘allowed’ the US Navy into the Gulf, with maybe a token missile fired or drone attack (designed to fail), hubris on the American part will take over. A convoy will be put together, made up of a few US Navy vessels and a couple of tankers that have been reflagged as US ships (possibly even purchased by the US government to force them to attempt the Strait). 

  

What happens then is anyone’s guess. Does Iran let it pass again, with a few token attacks to lull others into risking a larger convoy? Or does Iran take this as the opportunity to attack US Navy ships with the intent of sinking them in the Strait?  

  

Either option works to Tehran’s benefit, not to Washington’s. 

  

Gaza and Southern Lebanon are the most heavily surveilled areas on the planet. Yet still the rockets fly, and still they are fired into Northern Israel. The combined military might of Israel and its offshore military industrial complex (the US) has been unable to stop the missiles, even with years of suppression. 

  

Does anyone have any confidence that Iran, with decades to prepare for exactly this event or circumstance, has not developed exactly the capability needed to keep the Strait closed and to sink anything that goes through without its permission?  For many years, it has been clear that there would be a war with Iran. Even in 2013, when I was in the Gulf, the talk then among expats (of all sorts) was when there would be a war with Iran, and what their individual plans were to mitigate such a possibility. Maybe those expats and the ones who followed all had such plans, and maybe they are working. But I equally suspect that too many either did not have plans, or bought the image of the Gulf as a new land of peace and tax-free prosperity for all (well, all the white-collar workers and ‘influencers’).  

  

And so the war has come, and each side (all sides) is acting out their plans, hoping to contain this. But containment for Iran means the defeat, yes defeat, of the United States and its ejection from the Gulf once and for all.  

  

That only happens when the US Navy has been proven to be unable to open the Strait and keep it open. The price to the GCC countries and Saudi Arabia will be high. The price to Iran will be higher. But the payoff for Iran will be decades of real peace, a seat at the table, and a region devoid of US military bases.  

  

Israel will be contained and forced to negotiate with its neighbours.  

  

How will this happen?  

  

Keeping the Strait closed for six months or more will bankrupt the United States. Even “boots on the ground” will not open the Strait. It will only highlight US impotence in the face of drones and missiles. Cheap drones swarming missile defences. Even when the US (or Israel) is able to effectively deploy powerful enough laser systems to shoot down drones and missiles, there will still be mines, torpedoes, speedboats, and more drones and missiles. There will be the munitions held in reserve, and the longer-range artillery that can be driven close to the coast, firing three or four shells before scampering away. 

  

This is without Iran going full scorched-earth and sinking three, four, or more of their own tankers in the middle of the Strait, creating hazards to navigation that would take months to remove in the best of circumstances. 

  

Asymmetric warfare is on Iran's side. 

  

They know it. 

  

Washington knows it (well, those who plan and understand capability). 

  

China knows it. 

  

Yes, most of the world knows it. And while Trump will lose interest and be distracted by something else (Cuba?), the Strait will remain closed. Oil will flow. Fertiliser will flow. To China, and a few other countries willing to pay the price. It is a price they’ve wanted to pay for years but have been unable to. Now they must, or their people will starve. Enough oil will stop flowing to countries like India, Indonesia, and Thailand. 

  

The price will be breaking from the US alliance system. Selling US Treasuries. Rejecting US Navy visits and bases. Dealing directly with Tehran. These countries understand that picking the US over Iran will be picking the US over their own people, and their people will let them know that.  

  

This could be the US’s Suez, when Great Britain became the “Island formerly known as Great Britain”. Because when the UK (and France, to be fair) invaded Egypt in 1956 to seize the Suez Canal, the US threatened to call in the UK’s debt. At that moment, the British pound stopped being the global reserve currency (though that was arguably already well underway), and the US dollar began its 70-year run. It doesn’t matter if you have the largest navy today if you cannot pay for it tomorrow. 

The era of US hegemony is coming to an end. It will not happen overnight, but the process is now fully underway.

  

And Israel cannot have the world’s biggest military if the US component of its military cannot pay for itself. When the US can no longer afford its own military and the American people are losing their houses and jobs in the coming Greater Recession, they will reject perpetual and unlimited support for the “Israeli Dream”. US money will stop flowing to Israel, and Tel Aviv will be forced to do the unthinkable: negotiate with its neighbours.  

  

Only then will peace be possible in the Middle East. 

  

Or maybe the US can keep the Strait open.  

  

Maybe. 

Trump declares victory but Iran gets a say

Monday morning (Monday 9 March), and oil is up around $110/br, and will be going higher through the week. 

 

Trump has declared that the war is already “won”. The reality is that he is on the verge of demonstrating that he has lost this war. 

 

First, I’ll ignore his insulting the entire United Kingdom, at least for the moment, and go right to the heart of the matter. 

 

Wars are not won if one of the adversaries simply leaves the field of combat. That is called retreat and defeat. No one looks at the Vietnam War and says that the US ”won” because they declared victory and withdrew. And it is insulting to think that anyone will believe that the US ”won” in Iran just by declaring victory and withdrawing. 

 

The raw power of the US military is on display, and the Iranian military and critical civilian infrastructure are being destroyed. I say the raw power of the US military only because, while Israel is hugely powerful as well, they exercise that power at the discretion of the US, to a greater or lesser extent. Washington holds the purse strings, but as long as Israel believes they control Washington, it believes it can do anything. 

 

That hubris sets the scene for Trump to “declare victory and withdraw”. Victory. He will have fought his first real war and won. Iran will be crushed. His base will rally around and exalt him. Domestic opposition, faced with such a resounding victory, will wilt before him, and he will sweep the midterms. 

 

But... 

 

In every war, the enemy gets a say. Vietnam's strategy was to continue fighting domestically until the South Vietnamese government collapsed without US support. 

 

And that is the message: Iran will not fight internally if the US “declares victory and withdraws”, Iran will continue to close the Straits of Hormuz, and there is little the US can do about it, shy of actually landing troops and controlling a strip of land twenty five to forty kilometres deep in Iran, along almost three hundred kilometres of coast. Because that is how far inland they will need to control to stop the drones and missiles from reaching ships in the Straits. 

 

That’s a lot of troops and a lot of land. And that means a lot of casualties over an extended period. Even if the Tehran government falls, Iraq should have taught us that a central government is not required to sustain an insurgency, with direct attacks and IEDs, especially when embedded in a country with a hostile population. 

 

Before the war, 50 – 60 oil freighters and other ships passed through the Straits every day. That might be ‘only’ two ships per hour, but each ship will be in ‘firing range’ of the Iranian drones and missiles for fifteen to twenty hours, depending on speed and route. And each time a ship is hit or hits a mine, the process will start over with ships diverting to save harbours. 

 

Without the physical control of the coasts of the Persian Gulf, there will be no end to this war, at least not on Amerikan terms.  

 

We are just over a week into the war, and oil is at $100/br. At the two-week mark, oil could well be at $130 - $150/br. At the four-week mark, it is difficult to predict where the oil price will settle, but it will probably be well over $150/br. These are economy-crippling prices, and the US will begin to feel the cost of the war in very real terms by the end of March. By the end of April, the US economy may be in free fall, and the Dow, one of the few indicators that actually seems to matter to Trump, could be down 30% or more. 

As for alienating their own customers, I fully expect Iran to declare safe passage for all Chinese-flagged tankers on their way to and from Iranian ports. It will be very difficult for the US and Israel to attack those ships, or for anyone to do so, without risking the ire of Beijing. There will be attacks on those ships, by the US and Israel (as 'false flag' attacks blaming Israel) and possibly by GCC countries intent on forcing Tehran to the negotiating table. The US may declare the Straits "open", but only Iran will decide how open and who is allowed to get through.

 

In a worst-case scenario, by June, the US will be negotiating the level of reparations that will be paid to Tehran to open the straits and end the war. The US will have alienated virtually every ally in Europe, and Asia will be in the process of strategically realigning itself with Beijing. No, Beijing will not invade Taiwan, but by the end of 2027, there will be quiet negotiations taking place to find a way to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control. 

 

The worst-case scenario for Israel is far bleaker. If Trump does not control the midterms, he will face a House and Senate that will be blaming him and Netanyahu for getting the United States into an economy-killing war. AIPAC (the Israeli lobbying organisation that funnels millions into congressional campaigns and wields disproportionate control with that money) will find itself on the edge of impotency. They may find, for the first time ever, Representatives and Senators returning donation money. 

 

Let’s be perfectly clear, even if the Ayatollahs fall, and even if there is a new, almost secular government in Tehran, Iran will never be a friend to the United States or Israel. 

 

Iran's power as a threat to its neighbours may be broken, at least as a territorial threat. But oil money will flow again, and that money will be spent both at home to rebuild and in neighbouring countries to prop up their friends and those who stood beside them in this war. 

 

No government in the Middle East will trust the US for a generation. US military bases will close, one by one, as the America First isolationists are victorious through the economic ruin of America and not through a policy decision. 

 

Wars are not won by “declaring victory and withdrawing”. That is how they are lost. And Trump is on the way to losing this war. He will be luck if he keeps his head.