Be warned: Next to a battle lost, the saddest thing is a battle won

Be warned, the only thing worse for the United States in the short term than a Trump victory will be a resounding Trump defeat. After Waterloo, the Duke of Wellington was quoted as saying “Next to a battle lost, the saddest thing is a battle won.”

So Trump has declared that negotiations for a second Covid-19 stimulus package are over until he “wins the election”.  This should not be confused for anything other than what it is; the beginning of the Scorched Earth policy that will be implemented to the fullest if/when Trump loses the election.

Defeat is looming, and he knows it. He feels the rejection of the people, who are supposed to love him and all he has done for them. He knows that he will face accusations in multiple courts if he loses, and that the Republican Party will turn on him when he no longer has adequate leverage over individual senators and congressmen. He fears jail, he fears impoverishment. But mostly he fears exposure. That is why he was happy to pay $130,000 to a porn star to keep a fleeting affair secret. That is why he has stopped every attempt at the exposure of his tax records. He fears exposure and the destruction of the myth of the all-wonderful and all-powerful Trump.

And most of all he fears rejection.

And losing the vote will be the ultimate rejection. And they will pay for that rejection. Since he proved that he was quite capable of imposing horrible retribution on his closest family (his brother), no one should be in any doubt that he will impose even greater retribution on the entire country that rejects him.  On the morning of April 22, 1945, Hitler is supposed to have said "Everyone has lied to me, everyone has deceived me… the SS has left me in the lurch. The German people have not fought heroically. It deserves to perish… it is not I who have lost the war, but the German people."

I expect that exactly the same delusional thinking is going through Trump’s head right now, and that he will take as much of the United States with him when he goes. 

Halting the negotiations on a stimulus package may seem like just another negotiating tactic; it is not. This is his announcement that there are two choices; Trump, or destruction of Amerika. And he will carry through on that threat.

First, he will attempt to invalidate the election process (ongoing), then he will attempt to invalidate the election results (see the Atlantic and others), and finally, he will take down the country and leave a smouldering ruin for his successor.

So what does Scorched Earth look like between November and January?

The following is speculation of course, but I would not be surprised to see some or all of the following, but not in this or in any particular order.

1. Complete withdrawal from all negotiations with Democrats on any topics.
2. Refusal to allow any administration officials to participate in any transition meetings or planning.
3. All bills will be vetoed, regardless of content, either by a direct and explicit veto or by letting them sit on his desk long enough to the automatic veto to occur.
4. He will fire the head of the CDC and the FDA, for failing to bring a vaccine to market early enough to save him.
5. Ordering the immediate withdrawal of all American troops from any foreign bases and a “Home by Christmas” order.
6. Firing any and all generals who refuse, or who are seen as dragging their feet. Quite possibly firing hundreds of generals and senior officers as it becomes clear that the orders will not be fully implemented.
7. Notice to withdraw from NATO.
8. Executive Orders banning all Asians, Muslims and others from entering the United States (even though these will fail in the courts, the objective will be punishment, not implementation).
9. Cutting off all federal funds for all “Blue” cities immediately.
10. Closing all federal offices in “Blue” cities, except for “police” who will be tasked with…
11. …imposing close to martial law on “Blue” cities, including federalising the National Guard and putting them on the streets.
12. Fire much of the cabinet, with the objective of further slowing and collapsing the economy, and in retribution for a lack of adequate outward adulation.
13. Imposing immediate 100% tariffs on all imports, regardless of source (why? To destroy the stock market and economy, leaving a ruin for the new administration).
14. Firing hundreds if not thousands of federal civil servants who are identified as disloyal, either by having been accused of not being adequately compliant, or who are actively attempting to enact a peaceful transfer.
15. A war somewhere? A unilateral strike on China in the South China Sea? The only thing we can be certain of is that there will be no war with any country in which Trump has business interests, because
16. The flow of Presidential Pardons will be fast and furious, focusing first on his family, then on those who directly support his businesses. He will assert an ability to pardon for state crimes, though these pardons will fail in lower courts in 2021.
17. The only pardon he will hold back until the 20th of January will be Melania’s pardon, to make sure that she does not abandon him (which will happen in early February).

The list goes on. If it is possible, it will be on his list. He will not care about the economy, after all, the country rejected him, and especially New York and the markets will have rejected him, and that will make it personal. 

He has been compared with Hitler too often, and in most ways the comparison is completely wrong. He never served, and never held his Volk, his People, or his Nation to be anything greater than himself. He has never had a higher cause, and while Hitler may well be the very image of evil, Hitler did have a cause, however much the cause and the man were conjoined.

Trump is Trump, alone and only. And those that have sold their soul to Trump will find the bill coming due. Will they revert and put “Country first”, or will they believe that by staying loyal they will be able to seize the reins of the Trumpist “movement” and somehow command the loyalty of the Trumpist cult? Some certainly will take that route, and they will, perhaps, survive the culling that he will make even of those closest to him. 

Will those still around him be willing to stand up to him in those last days? I very much doubt it.

There will be senators who will have lost their seats and will be looking for some redemption in the history books. They might, but only might stand up to him. That of course will make things even worse, as they will only have proven themselves to be treasonous and disloyal. 

However this ends, it does not look good from here. There will be years of rebuilding ahead. The economy will be a shambles, and the incoming government will spend its first two years getting that back on course, all the while fighting against the Trumpist "Dead-enders".

The myth of the "Stab in the Back" will persist for years, and will be stoked by those who want to claim his mantle. 

Trump's strategy; childishly inane or cunningly evil?

I do not know what Trump’s strategy is, but it is either very childishly inane or cunningly evil. As he is surrounded by smart (but unethical) people, I’m worried about the cunningly evil option. Is the pivot to White Supremacism an intentional mechanism to retain a disillusioned base who would otherwise stay home? Is White Supremacy the natural backstop belief system for those who originally voted for (and still support) Trump with his "drain the swamp" message to the otherwise left behind?

When a belief system is undermined, it is natural to fall back on another. Why not capitalise on that, especially if it keeps the base voting?

The people around Trump are cynical enough to implement such a program. People like Kelly-Anne Conway, who is a very smart person, but seems devoid of any motivation that does not include self-aggrandisement and accumulation of power and through that a modicum of wealth.

She knows that she is lying and spinning half-truths, and she does it directly and with purpose. She knows very well that what she says will lead to people dying, but she does not care as long as it cements Trump’s hold on power. And through his hold on power, she continues to be in the public eye and retains or increases her access to power. Once Trump is ejected, something she certainly does not want but is ready for, she will pivot to making money as a pundit and former insider. She might even write a book.

If she does not write a book, she certainly will have positioned herself as indispensable to whoever dreams next of taking the White House (from the Republicans or the Extreme Right). Her ability to pick up the phone and ring anyone with money will make her a valued asset, and that will fill her bank account nicely. And who knows, maybe she will back another winner and be back on the White House lawn telling lies for someone else.

And that’s the way it works, for almost all of them. A few, a very few, believe that they are serving the best interests of the nation as they define those interests (that strangely always also seem to fit nicely with their own interests).

Across the rest of Amerika, schools are asking if and how they can open in the face of a pandemic that will not only endanger their students, it will endanger the teachers, and ultimately the virus will be taken home to un-infected families.

Another wonderful example is Kayleigh McEnany, Trump’s spokesperson since the end of April 2020. She quite openly and without the least hint of irony, told her first lie as spokesperson when in her first briefing, she said “I will never lie to you, you have my word on that” and then promptly started to do exactly that. This is the woman who, in July 2020 said “Science should not stand in the way of" opening schools. (Yes, she really said it. No, she wasn't taken out of context.)

So the White House has now said that even if scientists and epidemiologists are saying this is a bad idea, it should be done regardless. And in that one statement we have a summary of the entire Amerikan response to Covid-19; one ‘faction’ saying follow the science, and another saying that they do not care about the science, because this is a political decision and a political argument.

It is as if gravity was a political issue and not a scientific issue. We don’t believe that gravity holds us down, and if you believe that, then you must be supportive of abortion also. The linkages are extreme and pointless. Science is. Belief is different, and relies on a rejection (in some cases) of science.

Of course, this is an argument that humans have been having for millennia; probably as long as there has been any creature we can ‘human’. The earliest authorities were those who could convince others that the spirits spoke through them, or that they understood the will of the spirits. “Do as I command or you will be putting yourself against the God(s)”. And said with conviction, enough of the people will either believe, or will see an opportunity for themselves in supporting the spirit-speakers.

And throughout history, there has been a tug-of-war between the shamans and charlatans and those who look at the sky and see stars and not gods, and who let the trees talk to them instead of listening to what the shamans and charlatans say for the trees.

Science progress though, and with each passing century more was learned, more investigated and explores, and with the written word, more was passed from generation to generation. Eventually scientific ‘facts’ catch up with the shamans, whose continued defence of non-science becomes untenable.

In the case of Galileo, it took the Roman Catholic Church only 359 years to admit that he was right, and their suppression of these ideas was the suppression of scientific fact. In 1992 the Church finally admitted that he was right.

In 1633, the Inquisition of the Roman Catholic Church forced Galileo Galilei, one of the founders of modern science, to recant his theory that the Earth moves around the Sun. Under threat of torture, Galileo – seen facing his inquisitors – recanted. But as he left the courtroom, he is said to have muttered, ‘all the same, it moves’. (The New Scientist, 7 November 1992; https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg13618460-600-vatican-admits-galileo-was-right/)

In the case of the charlatans in the White House, it takes all of a few days or even a few minutes to know that they are telling lies, and that their attacks on science are baseless and political.

But these attacks were and are greeted approvingly by 35% of the Amerikan people; Trump’s loyal base. Even when they know that it is lies, they would rather support the liar than have to accept that there are other choices. It is taking an overwhelming level of deceit and duplicity by Trump and his apostles to eventually drive people away, even at the margins.

His 35% needs something to believe in. Before the pandemic, they needed to believe that there was someone “anti-Washington” and “anti-New York Finance” in charge, looking out for them. They needed to believe that they were not left behind. We can discuss all day if they were left behind, or if they took the easy path and left themselves behind, but that is a different discussion. What is clear is that they believed that Hilary and the Democrats were responsible for their being left behind, and nothing can shake that belief.

Mixed with that is the belief (for they must believe or there is nothing left for them) that Trump, for all his bling and worship of wealth, is actually looking after their interests in the swamp of Washington.

To actively un-believe is a difficult thing to do, especially when surrounded by those who, at least out loud, continue to believe. To un-believe requires reflection and acceptance that you were wrong. And in this case, it requires an acceptance that you supported a conman, and that you were conned. This is not easy. In fact is it probably one of the most difficult things that any of the un-believers will have had to go through; to accept that not only were they wrong, but that they and those they love and share common ideal with are also wrong, and that they too have been conned.

Anger and depression are probably the most common reactions, with anger taking the fore.

And much of that anger then spills over into a lashing out in a final attempt to prove that they were right all along, that they were not conned, and that their ideal and beliefs are indeed correct. That anger feeds off the anger of others like them, and it boils over.

Eventually, acceptance and reflection might happen. But only might.

More likely there will be retreating into a backup belief system, one that may be even more radical than the previous. White Supremacy is a good example. Take away the belief that Trump is actually representing the needs and wants of those left behind, and for many the next backup belief system is one of that supports their victimhood while affirming their individual worth.

So it is reasonable and logical that Trump is now all-but overtly supporting White Supremacy today. It is the logical refuge for his base who are un-believing in the “drain the swamp” narrative.

And here is the "cunning plan" part of the Trump program. If he (and his people) can see that one of the primary fall-back belief systems combines that victimhood of being left behind by Washington and the Democrats, and victimhood of a racial suppression (theirs, not other racial groups) then what better way to ensure that base remains engaged? Cater to their need for inclusion and to be 'heard', without too overtly supporting a philosophy of oppression; dog-whistle loudly and continually.

Confederate generals and monuments serve the purpose of confirming that Trump is indeed the protector of their alternative beliefs. Confederate symbols have little to do with the underlying values of actual of the confederate states. They are symbols now not of slave ownership and oppression, but symbols of a dis-association with the concept of Amerika. Therefore, promises to protect those symbols are equally a promise to uphold the cause of the rejected and the left behind.

He is never going to convert voters to his cause, so he needs to ensure that his existing base continues to be engaged. It really may be his only chance. 

And so all that we see and hear is about engaging that base, whatever it takes. It is a cunningly evil plan.