A Second Amerikan Civil War - not likely

Peter shared an interesting article yesterday (Divisions in America are even worse than you thought) that suggests that a Civil War in Amerika is inevitable. It's a very good snapshot of Amerika today. It does leave out a few things that should be taken into consideration in the "civil war" discussion. The first and most important is that the demographics are against the Republicans, and the economics are against them. It mentions the economics, but not the full extent of the problem.

So I'll add my own thoughts on the situation and the potential for a Second Civil War:

We all know about the Bell Curve, and especially the bell curve of intelligence across populations. I'll not draw one, but will say that there are sets of three bell curves at play here. 

1. Intelligence. There is of course the standard across the entire population. But there are also the Republican (R) and Democrat/Independent (D/I) bell curves. The Republican bell curve peaks to the left of the centre, while the Democrat/Independent skews to the right of the centre. Sorry, just a fact. The very exploitability of the Trumpist base and their willingness to believe any bullshit is all the proof that is needed.

It is important to recognise that the bell curve does have individuals at the upper intellect extreme. Those are the people who are Republican because they know that they can exploit the rest of the curve (and plenty on the D/I curve). Repugnant as he may be, Liddel is probably further up the curve, and I'm willing to bet that past daily cognitive dissonance that is his life, that he knows that the "Big Lie" BS is actually great for sales. He will never expand into the D/I market, but there remains plenty of R market that has not yet bought from him. The same goes for Mike Flynn, Giuliani and the rest of them. They are exploiting the simple for financial or power gain. Trump himself is somewhere above the mean, but I'll not venture a pin on the chart.

I'm not saying that being D/I makes one more intelligent, but if the left-skewed part of the population is excluded, the remaining will skew ever so slightly to the right. Let's face it; you are probably not the brightest light in the tent if you still think that there is a cannibalistic cabal of paedophiles in Washington, even though Trump was unable, in four years, to expose even one of them. Put simply, it takes a special kind of stupid to believe QAnon. 

That leads to the second.

2. Economics. The bell curves of economic productive capacity and personal wealth are similar to the intelligence bell curves. This means that, while they do have enough money to buy guns and ammunition, they do not have the economic capacity to sustain themselves (or their states). That economic capacity will be further eroded by the flight of money from their areas as the D/I wealthy remove investment and capital, and the wealthy R cohort removes profits to "safer" D/I regions.

As the first Amerikan Civil War proved, a non-industrial South, lacking in capacity and hindered by geography, was ultimately no match for the power and productive capacity of the North. Add to that the international community's refusal to recognise the slave-owning South (and probably refuse to recognise a theocratic South today) in part for morality reasons and in part to avoid risking the wrath of the North. The international community will "sit this one out", which cannot work to the advantage of the South.

Economically the R regions do not have a chance; they import everything, produce nothing (other than coal and country music, oh and tourism to Florida beaches) and have little capacity to produce what they will need to keep their adherents supplied with the ammunition that the Crispy Cream Brigades will need.

3. Now let's look at the demographic problem. Republicans and the ultra-conservatives are a shrinking (already) minority. As the article points out, the younger cohorts - future voters displacing the older voters as they die out - are very D/I. That will reduce the ability of the R factions to retain power. Sure, there will be individual states, and blocks of states, that will go further right, and will enact the harshest right-wing agendas. They will also suppress D/I voters in order to retain almost perpetual control. But they will suffer from the loss of population as the younger migrate to the more D/I centres of economic activity. 

As the article points out, it may take a while, but those D/I states will lose the desire to continue to prop up the R states through infinite largesse to the detriment of their own people, especially when it becomes (became?) clear that the R states will never reform. 

4. Centres of power. The other thing missing from the article is the great dreaded and vilified "Deep State". Actually, the Deep State does exist, it is called the infrastructure of government across the country, and ranges from the local DMV (Department of Motor Vehicles, issuing drivers licenses) to Congress, from the administrator in the VA to the policy analysts in the Department of Transportation. The Republicans and Trumpists have created a mythical monster where there is indeed a monster, but not the monster that they think it is. The real monster that they need to be afraid of is two-headed - the DoJ and the DoD.

DoJ is not going to allow January 6th to go unanswered. They will prosecute as high as they can find evidence to support those prosecutions. And they will do so by the tried and true tactics of bringing in the small fish, offering token sentences for evidence and agreements to testify. They will continue to collect the evidence, over Trump's lawsuits (and the SCOTUS just rejected his "let me hide the evidence" lawsuit) and the stalling actions of the rest of his cabal. A lot of people are going to jail. 2022 will be the year of indictments, and of the Deep State reminding people that there are consequences.

DoD will go through a purge this year and next. They will be quietly purging the January 6th supporters and insurrectionists, and there were plenty. They will be removing "political" generals, and they will be reinforcing the civics training that has always been a component of initial and ongoing military training. An apolitical military is one of the foundations of the US of Amerika, and the military leadership will demand a perpetuation of that value. That will be non-negotiable to the generals and the Joint Chiefs. So, in 2024, whoever is lawfully elected and certified by Congress will be sworn in as the next president. No matter who that is. It won't be the Great Pussy Grabber.

5. The insurrectionists. Let me start by calling Ashli Babbit what she was; a traitor, who died a traitor's death. An underperforming, lower intellect Senior Airman. PLEASE, Senior Airman after 12 years of service, active, reserve and National Guard? Please, not even a Sergeant, which is the "other half" of the E-4 rank. You almost have to try to not make Sergeant in under 4 years, let alone 12. Yet by getting herself shot dead inside the Capital, she is the martyr for the insurrectionists. They were the gullible, led by a cadre of true insurrectionists who actually did want to overthrow the government and the election.  

When a "real civil war" starts, they will be isolated and tracked down by real police and real military units, trained and with the intel on their side. Their leaders will flee to Canada or Mexico as if it was a bad snowstorm. Government institutions will not support the insurrectionists at any level. A secret about the "Deep State"; as government service tends to be more of a meritocracy, those who rise in the "Deep State" tend to skew right on the intellectual bell curve, and they tend also to support the Constitution and rule of law. This is going to make it difficult for the insurrectionists to gain the kind of traction that they will require to actually enact and complete an effective insurrection or secession.

Summary

Will there be a new Civil War in Amerika? Probably. Will it last as long as the previous one? Probably not. Will states secede from the Union? Possibly. Will the Union accept it? Not a chance. Will the secessionist states be able to survive or will they lose the Second Civil War? They will be crushed. The Union will be restored. The insurrectionists will be crushed. 

In fact, it may already be happening. The investigations by the DoJ may be the counteroffensive that will lead to the restoration of the Union and the destruction of the insurrection. Time will tell.

Wonderful News: Republicans reject the 6/1 Commission

In the US Senate Republicans have blocked a bi-partisan investigation into the 6/1 insurrection. While some people are moaning and whining about the Republicans rejection of the Commission, I think this is great news. The Commission legislation as drafted should have been the Republicans dream commission. The bi-partisan agreement required agreement on which witnesses to call, who would get immunity, etc. The Republicans could have used that as an indefinite stall and pushed any meaningful results beyond the reporting date of the Commission. 

Republican leadership would have used the Commission to shield Republican lawmakers who are directly complicit in the insurrection, and would have hamstrung the Department of Justice, the FBI and other investigative agencies from doing their job. Even state-level investigations could have been impaired by Republican Senators and the Commission’s granting of selective immunity in exchange for testimony in front of the Commission, thus freeing these people from punishment or even a requirement to testify at the state level.

So not having those constraints on any Commission will be an excellent result.

Now the House Democrats can form their own Committee under their rules, and can compel anyone they want to testify, including former President Trump. Certainly, those who will implicate members of congress will be called, and will be required to testify under oath. Some may even be offered immunity for their testimony that directly accuses, not implicates, members of congress.

It is inconceivable that the invasion of the Capital on the 6th of January did not have support from and potentially direct collusion with some Republican members of the House or Senate. They need to be exposed, and they need to be charged. 

A Commission comprising, in part, a complicit subset of insurrectionists, with the ability to stop or delay testimony by those who will implicate them, is no Commission worth empowering.  

For example, Jim Jordan (“Gym” to me for his covering up the sexual abuse scandal when he was an assistant coach and the head coach was abusing wrestling students, who came to Gym for help, and who he turned away) is against the Commission. Why? Because he is a potential witness.

The Washington Post begins their article: “Several Republicans who oppose creating a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol are more than lawmakers making a public policy decision — they are potential witnesses to what former president Donald Trump and his aides were saying and doing as the mob laid siege.”

Even the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) would be a potential witness, to confirm the contents of his calls with Trump trying to get help, and being rebuffed by Trump.

The craven sycophants in Congress are running scared, and will until Trump is convicted in a court, or until individual congress members are convicted. And soon enough it will begin. And when they are charged, they will call it lies, of course, and their bases will, partially, either believe them or at least believe the lie that any alternative will be worse.

And enough will not believe them, and will stay home at the next election, if they are still in office and not in jail. But those who stay home will make the difference.

At the same time that the Democrat House of Representatives establishes their own Commission or Committee, the Department of Justice will be continuing its multiple cases against a wide range of people. This cannot be stopped by the Republicans, even though they will attempt to deride it as a partisan branch of government under the control of the Democrats. Logically this should be laughed at, as it will be pointed out that this is an acknowledgement that the DoJ under Trump was a politically partisan brand of government, but Republicans will spin that lie anyway. They can do that knowing that their acolytes either are too stupid to see what they’ve just done, or because they are too willing to believe that the “deep state” is Democrat and will be against anything that Republicans attempt to do.

Meanwhile, the little guys, and even the big-little guys, will begin to sing. They are already, we just are not seeing it yet. Enough of them were pulled into rooms and had the bright lights shown in their faces, with or without lawyers present. We won’t hear about it from the lawyers, since anything that they will be willing to say, grassing up their friends and militia-mates in order to stay out of jail will be with the approval of their lawyers to reduce their sentences. Not until the court cases. And then we will see the reports of who spoke with which members of Congress before the fateful day. Who knew what, and who encouraged what actions.

Because the little guys know they are going to jail unless they do deals. And some of them will be going to jail for a long time. Those that will only be in line for a short stint inside will also sing. This I said months ago, and I’m still confident it will happen.

In fact, when the Democratic majority in the House starts holding their own hearings, the little guys will be lining up to testify in exchange for some form of limited immunity. 

Meanwhile, at the bigger picture level, patience is the game. My main predictions from the 9th of January still hold: “First, the highlights. The 2024 Presidential Campaign will be fought by four political parties; the Democrats, the Republicans, the American Patriots Party, and the Libertarians. The split of the vote will be something not far from 55%, 25%, 10%, and 10%. President Harris will be re-elected in an Electoral College landslide that will eclipse Joe Biden's, and Trump's before him.” 

But it remains a waiting game. Mostly just waiting for the Republicans to continue to destroy themselves, and to leave traditional Republicans with no play to go, and no party to follow. The fiscally conservative, national defence and low tax voter will continue to watch the current Republicans spout treasonous crap while they lick Trump's boots (or wingtip shoes anyway). Trump will, at some point, have to dip into the $400 million that he scammed from people to pay to support his minions, even though supporting ‘down ticket’ (anything below himself) is not his style.

So with nowhere to go in their own party, they will either go to the Libertarians, or stay home. 

Ultimately, the rejection of the Commission by the Republicans was a self-defeating attempt to delay the inevitable, and I am thrilled.

So, Prediction Time

Watching what is happening, seeing the general revulsion at Trump’s incitement of insurrection and the actual storming of the Capitol, I think it is possible to make some extrapolations.

First, the highlights. The 2024 Presidential Campaign will be fought by four political parties; the Democrats, the Republicans, the American Patriots Party, and the Libertarians. The split of the vote will be something not far from 55%, 25%, 10%, and 10%. President Harris will be re-elected in an Electoral College landslide that will eclipse Joe Biden's, and Trump's before him.

Now a little of the thinking behind this.

1. The Republican Party is dead as we know it. It can no longer hold the wide range of constituents, and the Trumpists will split to become a new party, the American Patriots Party. The rump Republican Party will be made up of long-term fiscal and social conservatives, especially the Constitutionalists. They will continue to control strong constituencies in the South and in some rural states. Religious conservatives will have a difficult time deciding where they will land, and many will stay with the Party that is conservative without being crazy. There are conservative Christians who have actually read the bible (well, the New Testament anyway) and cannot or will not be able to continue to support Trump and his anti-Christian behaviours.
2. The American Patriots Party will come into being in the first six months of 2021, and will be the Trumpist Party in all but name. Basically, this will be the White Supremacist party, and the home for QAnon and other conspiracy theorists. The party will never command a significant share of the vote. It will win a few seats in the mid-terms, but will find itself starved for money and influence in a congress that will still be distancing itself from Trump and his ilk. Their platforms will be and remain secessionist and anti “Deep State” and with Donald Trump Jr as the head of the party, they will perpetuate a “stab in the back” myth, knowing full well that they are stealing that from the early Nazi Party. There will be splinter groups even from this, as we should expect an Amerikan Eugène Terre'Blanche, with a similar end.
3. The Libertarian Party will be a big winner from the end of the Republican Party as we know it. The moderately educated and modestly affluent conservative but anti-government Republicans will look for a new home. Seeing their previous hope (small government, high tax-cut Republican congressmen and senators) become more ‘mainstream’ conservative and fiscally responsible, even voting for higher taxes to fund the deficit and military (but nothing else), they will look for a new home. They will be as disgusted by the American “Patriots” as most of Amerika, and so will find solace in the arms of the Libertarian Party.
4. This leaves us with the Democratic Party. As the party in power they will have a natural advantage, and simply introducing some calm will work to their advantage. Under Democrats the pandemic will be defeated and the nation will mourn. There will be, of course, plenty of Democrats who will ensure that the message is clear: under Trump, this was allowed to happen with no consideration for people, while under the Democrats the pandemic was brought to heel, and the nation healed. The economy will bounce back under a Democratic administration, and while the deficit will continue to climb, Treasury and Fed policies will ensure low-interest rates and plenty of stimulus to keep the markets afloat (and ensure that are no places better than the markets to invest for a return).

Yesterday (8 January 2020) in the Reagan National Airport, Senator Lindsey Graham was yelled at and called a Traitor. While personally, I believe he is a traitor, the people yelling at him were the very Trumpists he has encouraged through his slavish support for their prophet, Donald Trump. Graham was an ‘old fashioned’ Republican and will attempt to survive in the Republican Party, and that will be difficult. Look for him to announce that this will be his last term. He will be rejected by the Patriots Party, and his only hope is that the file used to blackmail his has not fallen into the hands of Don Jr. If that happens, then he may be retiring sooner than the end of his term.

Mitt Romney will probably emerge as the real leader of the traditional Republican Party. This will leave little room for the rejectionists. They will (probably) be deprived of plumb committee seats, and will find themselves in the back rows. As the only Republican to vote against Trump in the first impeachment, he is the only traditional Republican with the moral standing to front and leads the party. McConnell is yesterday’s fish, and wrapped in newspaper will be thrown onto the trash. Graham, as mentioned, has no hope of regaining any position of authority. His apparent but not disclosed health issues from a few months ago may precipitate an early retirement. He will not be missed. There are other traditional Republicans, but few have been able to demonstrate an adequate level of independence from Trump.

The likes of Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley were already positioning themselves to take over the Trumpist mantle, and they will have no home other than the Patriots Party. They will find themselves in the same fight that they are in now, against each other but more importantly against Don Jr and the rest of the clan. With their political experience and ability to raise donor money, they will have a decided advantage over Don Jr, and they will use that advantage. Can they actually push the Trumps out of the Trumpist party? That remains to be seen, but it is their only constituency and their only hope.

The undereducated white male is a shrinking demographic. In addition, simple shame will shrink the ranks of those who will be putting Patriot Party flags on their front lawns. Finally, the funding required to run a major political party does not come from the poor or the collection plate, it comes from mega (not MAGA) donors who expect a return for their investment. There is little chance of anyone getting a meaningful return from this crowd.

President Harris will of course win in 2024, and by a landslide bigger than her predecessor Joe Biden, as she cries out to carry on his legacy to build a greater, freer, safer and more egalitarian nation; a more “perfect union”,mmmmqmf2q2den will be remembered as the President who brought America Back from the darkness of the Trump years. But at 78, the pressures of the presidency will eventually take their toll. He will not, for one reason or another, run in 2024. Will Harris already be President by then? That is a 50-50 bet that I won’t take. But she will be Madam President in January 2025.

6/1 and the End of Trump (and all who sail with him)

There is so much to write, and it is difficult to find a place to start. But I guess I can start with the end:

Trump signs and flags are going to disappear across Amerika today. Arrests will accelerate over the coming weeks. The Republican Party will now splinter and effectively will die as a political party of meaningful standing. Trump truly burned as much of it to the ground as he could. The question remaining is how much damage can he do between now and when he is removed, on the 20^th or before?

Georgia and the impact

It is probably right to start here. Both Senate seats in Georgia have been won by the Democrats, and with that, control of the Senate. Not a blank chequebook, but the ability to ensure that bills actually reach the floor and Senators are required to actually register their vote, so that their positions can actually be recorded, instead of the 2-year act of cowardice that has seen almost no bills reach the floor of the Senate.

Most importantly, Biden will now be able to nominate who he wants in his cabinet and on the bench. He will need to use this power quickly. The first proof is his announcement that Marrick Garland will be his pick for Attorney General, a pick that would have been either impossible or very difficult to get through a Senate with Republican control.

At a guess, news of the loss of Georgia probably contributed to the violence, as the Trumpist Cult could then clearly see that they have lost all; the House, the Senate and the White House. Their rage was stirred up by Trump. The knowledge that they would not even have part of the government to ‘protect them’ may well have added to their sense of betrayal. Of course, Trump (and Giuliani and others) claiming that there was massive voter fraud in the Georgia runoff could not have helped. But the news probably added to the frustration of the Trumpist Cultists.

Trump’s “Stolen Election” rally, and his cowardice

Trump held his rally in front of the White House, and Don Jr and Giuliani spoke before the main act, Trump himself. We watched Trump for the first hour, until the channels switched to the Capitol. Giuliani called for “trail by combat” to a bunch of wannabe revolutionaries. Don Jr incited, and Ivanka called the mob “American Patriots”.

Before the mob actually breached the Capitol, Charlie Savage of the Washington Post posted this in the comments next to the live streaming from the Senate floor:

 

Charlie Savage Washington Correspondent If any of the Capitol Police or staffers get hurt or worse because of the protesters outside the Capitol, Trump is going to face accusations that he incited a riot. At the end of his speech, Trump told his supporters on the Mall that Republicans have been too nice, like a boxer with his hands tied behind his back, and now needed to “fight much harder” against “bad people.” He told them to walk to the Capitol and “demand” that Congress “confront this egregious assault on our democracy” (that is, his loss to Biden), and kept exhorting them that “you have to show strength and you have to be strong” and “you will never take back our country with weakness.” (His defense will be that amid all that militancy, he also used the adverb “peacefully” once.) 2:13 PM ET

 

Yet after saying “We will march to Congress” he got into his motorcade to ride 200 meters back to the White House. Coward.

Storming the Capitol

The Trump “Save America March” broke up and marched to Congress, just as he told them to.

And when they arrived, the barriers were pushed aside, and protesters reached the bottom of the steps of the Capitol. There are questions about who opened the barriers. Regardless, crowds gathered at the bottom of the eastern steps to the Capitol, and crowds gathered at the western side and began to scale the scaffolding that has been put up for the inauguration. There was an inadequate police presence, of Capitol Police and DC Police, and there was no National Guard available. With everyone knowing that there was a high chance of unrest, where were they?

I understand that it might not have been wise to surround the Capitol with a wall of National Guard or police, as the optics of that would be terrible. I can hear it now “they needed the Army to protect them as they stole the election”. So from a public perception perspective, it makes plenty of sense to keep all the security services and military well out of sight. But they should have been on-call, waiting lined up and ready to roll if needed. This will go down as a major failure to prepare, or at worst a calculated attempt to allow rioters to gain entry and overturn the election (or attempt to).

Soon they were at the doors, and windows were broken and protesters climbing in. Soon enough, mobs running through the building. One person was shot trying to break into the Senate chamber. That person since died. I’ll not use her name. While she is an Air Force veteran, she has soiled the flag that she saluted, and has shit upon the Constitution that she swore to protect, from all enemies, foreign and domestic (herself being one of those enemies).

One of the most disturbing pictures, and it is difficult to narrow it down to just one, is the protester/rioter walking through the Statuary Hall carrying the Confederate flag. That is not “Stop the Steal”, that is “Overthrow the Republic”, and that is at Trump’s feet.

Eventually, the Guard and the Police arrived, and order was restored. People were forced to exit the building and leave the grounds. We now read that 50+ people were arrested. That number is a joke. Thousands violated the Capitol, and they are all on camera and video. And the really stupid one videoed themselves and took selfies as they committed riot and attempted to overthrow the government. There will be some short trials and long sentences.

Counting the vote resumed

Even after the Capitol has been stormed by Trumpist rioters, still, some Trumpist Senators continued to object. Remember these names. They are traitors to the nation and the Constitution. They have put a man above the Constitution. They have attempted to install a king. The “Breaking News” Alert from the New York Times summed it up perfectly:

 

Those voting against the results of the American election were: Senators Josh Hawley of Missouri, Ted Cruz of Texas, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi, Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas and John Kennedy of Louisiana.

 

“Those voting against the results of the American election”.

At about 3:30am Washington time (or thereabouts) Mike Pence read the prepared remarks that included the count of Electors for Biden/Harris and for Trump/Pence. He then declared Biden to be the President-Elect who will be sworn in on the 20^th of January. It was over. Even Trump was forced to issue, through an advisor because his Twitter and Facebook and Instagram accounts have been locked for 12 – 24 hours, that there will be a peaceful transfer of power.

Orderly transfer

Of course, there hasn’t been a peaceful transfer of power. There has been a campaign of rejection of the results culminating in an attempted coup by the mob, stirred up by Trump and his followers. The transfer of power does not happen only on the 20^th, but is a process that starts, or should have started, in November after the election results are clear. A transition team from both the sitting administration and the incoming administration work together to ensure that there is continuity of government. To ensure that new appointees can start the new administration fully briefed on the current situation in the government agencies, the status of programs, and so that staff can get to know each other and who they will be working with. Policies can be discussed so that the incoming administration has an idea of the effort in front of them. National Security continuity is required, and incoming administration officials must know the security threats that the country faces, so that there can be no gap and no period of potential weakness that an enemy can exploit.

Failure to do this is not the peaceful transfer of power.

Trump has not signalled that there will be a orderly transfer of power, he has issued a surrender statement indicating that he recognises (or enough of his direct advisors and supporters recognise) that he will be replaced, that he did lose, and that his insurrection failed. He is now negotiating a peaceful and jail-free departure from the White House on the 20^th.

Make no mistake, Trump is being prised out of the White House with the threat of being physically dragged out. He tried, and failed, and will now depart in such a way as to try one last smear against Biden. But he also has almost no loyalists left.

His insurrection failed. But he will claim that he didn’t actually want that to happen; those well-meaning patriots got out of hand. Good people; the best people, just very enthusiastic people. He will continue to say that the election was stolen, until he is finally sued in civil court by a few states demanding damages. There certainly will be some people in the crowd who will join any suits against Trump for fraud, saying they believed the President when he lied to them, and did what the President wanted and told them to do. It will be an interesting set of lawsuits.

The rest of (Trump’s) Amerika

By now, the morning after, I fully expect that across Amerika Republicans and Trump supporters who are not crazy will be taking down their Trump banners. Trump 2020 bumper stickers will be scraped off. While they will remain conservative, and may still believe in a “deep state”, they also are Amerikans, and they know that inciting you followers to storm the Capitol and walk through the Statuary Hall with the Confederate flag is going beyond the acceptable.

In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and quite possibly in Texas, the Trump flags and signs will come down. In the Klan-South it may take a little longer, but in the VFWs (Veterans of Foreign Wars – equivalent to the RSAs in the Commonwealth) the Trump banners will come down. What happened was a direct assault on the Constitution, and that was something they all swore to defend.

Hopefully, the preachers will back-off as fast as they can. They know their constituencies better than anyone. They did not condemn Trump before, because they had good alms paying congregations who wanted to hear how Trump was stopping abortion and making Amerika strong, stopping Communists and keeping the, um, non-Amerikans (read: Blacks, Asians and Hispanics) from displacing good God-fearing Christian Amerikans.

There will be little overt repudiation, because the internal psychological backflips needed will not be possible. But Trump and Trumpism is done, other than for a fringe that will be there no matter what happens. They will no longer, however, be a political force.