This is not a Covid-19 travel ban (EU & Europe)

I am prefacing this with the disclaimer: I am NOT a conspiracy theorist, and do not like conspiracy theories. But sometimes you have to wonder. 

So much of Europe is closing its doors to the UK, completely. No air or rail traffic to or from the UK from the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France and others. Greece has imposed a 7-day quarantine on any traveller from the UK. The “new strain” of Covid-19 is supposed to be 70% more infectious. This number feels a bit ‘made up’ but I’ll go with it. I’ve seen that it spreads 70% faster, or that it spreads within the body 70% faster. Whatever the situation, Europe has panicked and is shutting down all access to the UK. 

This is, frankly, silly.  The new variant was identified in September, and therefore there is not a country in Europe that has not had travel to and from the UK in the three months since. And in those three months, there can be little doubt that if it is that much more contagious, it will have spread outside the UK already. I almost wonder if there isn’t a little bit of politics going on here also, a gentle reminder to the UK government what Brexit will look like without a deal. Miles of lorries unable to deliver food to the UK because of blockages in the ports. All a good preview of Brexit. 

And they do not need to explicitly say this is what a ‘no-deal’ Brexit will look like; it’s a given.

So while we are told that there is a new strain of Covid-19 out there, and we should worry, the fact is that if it has been around since September, then there is no country that it has not already arrived in (except of course New Zealand).

The Black Death took from 1347 to 1351 to finish its march from the Crimea through Southern Europe, up to France and across to England and north and east to Germany. The plague travelled at the speed of a sail-driven ship, or the speed of a merchant walking their cart from village to village. The dates of arrival of plague in cities across Europe matched the speed of travel by foot (or ship) nicely. Indeed, word of the plague travelled faster, because couriers rode at some speed to deliver regal and ecclesiastic news. But infection travelled in the merchant’s cart.

In such a situation, a new variant of plague identified in September would still be on its way from England to Italy by December, with its arrival at each city along the way being identifiable by increased cases in those cities.

Covid-19 travels at the speed of a jet-liner. So any variant anywhere in the world, if the mutation is hardy enough and supportive of replication without killing the host, will travel around the world in days, maybe a couple of weeks. Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted is one thing; shutting the stable door a month after the horse meandered out is quite another. That horse is not only long gone, it also wandered through all your neighbours' pastures and paths. 

Locking down all travel from the UK two and a half months after a new variant of Covid-19 has been identified is not only silly but ineffective in the extreme. Add to that the argument that this is a more contagious version. Well in that case, and with the speed of spread of ‘Covid-19 Classic’, a more virulent version should be spreading even faster. And we know that Covid-19 spread in a matter of a few weeks, not months. We also know that the initial spread was faster, but not identified because of the latency period between infection and manifestation of the decease. 

This version has not only had the time to spread, if it is actually more virulent, then it is already spreading rapidly through all of Europe. 

The closing of UK borders is not due to a Covid-19 variant unless this is for show only. And if it is for show, then the EU might as well use that show for alternative and additional messaging. We’re all in this together, or look what happens when you are locked out.

And possibly not a surprise, France has announced that it may open the border to traffic again as soon as 48 hours from now. They certainly will not have the new strain under control or even limited by then. But the main message will have been sent and received.