So goes the Covid in Greece; 2 Feb 2022

There is definitely a weariness that permeates everything. Sure, we all wear the mask most of the time, except that it is more common to see groups of people without masks, certainly indoors. And even we will not wear a mask indoors when dining. Being triple vaxxed, we feel a sense of, not immunity but, less concern about catching Covid-19 and the potential impact on us. We have an expectation that it will be mild and will pass over us.

Still, there remains the concern that we, either of us, could be one of the few that has a bad case, or has a “long Covid” case with problems lingering for some time. So we remain cautious, but in all honesty not as cautious as we should be. 

This is especially the case with the high numbers now. We are immured to the numbers, which when they were a thousand a day, we panicked, but at 19,000 a day we now think that is, if not a good day, then at least a standard day in a stream of days in which the numbers are slowly coming down. But of course, they are not coming down yet, and deaths are now back up to a seven-day moving average that is as high as it has ever been. 

Last week, Francoise went to her regular yoga on Wednesday. She goes to a studio that currently has only three people at a time, with plenty of space between them. The window is open the entire time, even in winter. So that would make this “cold yoga” and not “hot yoga” (bad joke). 

On Saturday, her yoga instructor sent her a message saying that she tested on Wednesday and was positive for Covid-19, probably caught from her child’s school. 

So it was a self-test for Francoise, which thankfully came up negative. That is one is a string of near misses we’ve had. I’m not terribly impressed that the yoga teacher took until the weekend to tell Francoise, with there then being a few days in which Francoise would have been building up a good case, and potentially being contagious herself. 

Total cases in Greece from the beginning of the pandemic is now ar around 1.9 million, or around 18% of the population. One in five people has had Covid-19, officially. Yet there have been so many cases that were asymptomatic and therefore never identified, and probably many cases spotted in self-tests that were not reported. If that is the case, then my personal estimate is that the number of confirmed cases is 50%, at best of the total number of cases. That makes the total percentage of cases closer to 40% or more of the population. And we have no idea how many of the children have had Covid-19 and just brushed it off as nothing. 

 So if 40% have been infected and therefore have a significantly lower chance of catching it again soon, and 45% (as of yesterday's numbers) have been vaxxed and boosted, then that accounts for 85% of the population, leaving a scant 15% left who are fully exposed. I’m not suggesting that the 85% cannot be infected, but I would expect that the potential infection rate for that part of the community is much less than for the remaining unvaccinated who have yet to be infected.

So with those kinds of numbers, that leaves around another 1.5 million exposed. At 20,000 per day, and with an expectation that of the remaining 15%, only 7.5% of them will actually contract Covid-19, we should start seeing a dropping off of new cases this month, hopefully tapering off the very few ongoing new infections by the end of March.

Is that good news? I think it is. Certainly, there will be more variants, and there will be additional waves as new variants sneak past vaccination protection. But unless those new variants are really scary, I’m hopeful that we will be “back” to a “new normal” is mask-less walks and an awakening city and country just in time for spring.

For us, being dosed is helpful, but there remain too many unvaccinated. The Greek government is now fining the elderly who are not vaccinated, and there is a recommendation that the fines be deducted directly from their pension payments. Unfortunately, I think that seems reasonable, except. 

Anne Marie in Costa Rica remains unvaccinated and is worried that being alone, the side effects from being vaccinated could be too much for her. With a reverse-placebo effect, I’m afraid that she is right, and the side effects will be too much. Not because there would have been any, but because she has now convinced herself that there will be, and therefore there will be. Reverse-placebo. I think even we were subject to a bit of that, with both of us experiencing lethargy and aches over a couple of days. Francoise on the day of the vaccination and me starting the following day for 24 hours.. 

If we experienced that, with our comfort at being vaccinated, there is absolutely no doubt that Anne Marie will have serious side effects. 

And that brings me back to the elderly Greeks who are not vaccinated and now face fines. I lack sympathy, or I did. Now I'm beginning to think that these elderly will have a disproportionate rate of serious side effects, due not to actual causes but simply due to their deeply held expectation of negative side effects. I don't know what the right trade-off is, but certainly, there will be a need for greater monitoring of the elderly when they do get their vaccinations.

(All images from Google search phrase "Covid Greece" on 2 Feb 2022)