Monday morning, and oil is up around $110/br, and will be going higher through the week.
Trump has declared that the war is already “won”. The reality is that he is on the verge of demonstrating that he has lost this war.
First, I’ll ignore his insulting the entire United Kingdom, at least for the moment, and go right to the heart of the matter.
Wars are not won if one of the adversaries simply leaves the field of combat. That is called retreat and defeat. No one looks at the Vietnam War and says that the US ”won” because they declared victory and withdrew. And it is insulting to think that anyone will believe that the US ”won” in Iran just by declaring victory and withdrawing.
The raw power of the US military is on display, and the Iranian military and critical civilian infrastructure are being destroyed. I say the raw power of the US military only because, while Israel is hugely powerful as well, they exercise that power at the discretion of the US, to a greater or lesser extent. Washington holds the purse strings, but as long as Israel believes they control Washington, it believes it can do anything.
That hubris sets the scene for Trump to “declare victory and withdraw”. Victory. He will have fought his first real war and won. Iran will be crushed. His base will rally around and exalt him. Domestic opposition, faced with such a resounding victory, will wilt before him, and he will sweep the midterms.
But...
In every war, the enemy gets a say. Vietnam's strategy was to continue fighting domestically until the South Vietnamese government collapsed without US support.
And that is the message: Iran will not fight internally if the US “declares victory and withdraws”, Iran will continue to close the Straits of Hormuz, and there is little the US can do about it, shy of actually landing troops and controlling a strip of land twenty five to forty kilometres deep in Iran, along almost three hundred kilometres of coast. Because that is how far inland they will need to control to stop the drones and missiles from reaching ships in the Straits.
That’s a lot of troops and a lot of land. And that means a lot of casualties over an extended period. Even if the Tehran government falls, Iraq should have taught us that a central government is not required to sustain an insurgency, with direct attacks and IEDs, especially when embedded in a country with a hostile population.
Before the war, 50 – 60 oil freighters and other ships passed through the Straits every day. That might be ‘only’ two ships per hour, but each ship will be in ‘firing range’ of the Iranian drones and missiles for fifteen to twenty hours, depending on speed and route. And each time a ship is hit or hits a mine, the process will start over with ships diverting to save harbours.
Without the physical control of the coasts of the Persian Gulf, there will be no end to this war, at least not on Amerikan terms.
We are just over a week into the war, and oil is at $100/br. At the two-week mark, oil could well be at $130 - $150/br. At the four-week mark, it is difficult to predict where the oil price will settle, but it will probably be well over $150/br. These are economy-crippling prices, and the US will begin to feel the cost of the war in very real terms by the end of March. By the end of April, the US economy may be in free fall, and the Dow, one of the few indicators that actually seems to matter to Trump, could be down 30% or more.
As for alienating their own customers, I fully expect Iran to declare safe passage for all Chinese-flagged tankers on their way to and from Iranian ports. It will be very difficult for the US and Israel to attack those ships, or for anyone to do so, without risking the ire of Beijing. There will be attacks on those ships, by the US and Israel (as 'false flag' attacks blaming Israel) and possibly by GCC countries intent on forcing Tehran to the negotiating table. The US may declare the Straits "open", but only Iran will decide how open and who is allowed to get through.
In a worst-case scenario, by June, the US will be negotiating the level of reparations that will be paid to Tehran to open the straits and end the war. The US will have alienated virtually every ally in Europe, and Asia will be in the process of strategically realigning itself with Beijing. No, Beijing will not invade Taiwan, but by the end of 2027, there will be quiet negotiations taking place to find a way to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control.
The worst-case scenario for Israel is far bleaker. If Trump does not control the midterms, he will face a House and Senate that will be blaming him and Netanyahu for getting the United States into an economy-killing war. AIPAC (the Israeli lobbying organisation that funnels millions into congressional campaigns and wields disproportionate control with that money) will find itself on the edge of impotency. They may find, for the first time ever, Representatives and Senators returning donation money.
Let’s be perfectly clear, even if the Ayatollahs fall, and even if there is a new, almost secular government in Tehran, Iran will never be a friend to the United States or Israel.
Iran's power as a threat to its neighbours may be broken, at least as a territorial threat. But oil money will flow again, and that money will be spent both at home to rebuild and in neighbouring countries to prop up their friends and those who stood beside them in this war.
No government in the Middle East will trust the US for a generation. US military bases will close, one by one, as the America First isolationists are victorious through the economic ruin of America and not through a policy decision.
Wars are not won by “declaring victory and withdrawing”. That is how they are lost. And Trump is on the way to losing this war. He will be luck if he keeps his head.
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