Somehow

Somehow 

 

Somehow the world has avoided real catastrophe in 2022. So far anyway. It almost seems miraculous, with the war in Ukraine and the severity of drought in the western US (to name two near misses) and the temporary halting of grain shipments from Black Sea ports. Those two could have resulted in food shortages and mass starvation around the world. We aren't out of the woods yet, and 2023 holds at least as many challenges as ‘22 or even ‘21. Systemic fragility is growing, and while the world has coped, that certainly cannot be taken for granted in the coming year(s). 

 

Somehow, we need to prepare for this. And this means personally, also at the company or corporate levels, and definitely at national and transnational government levels. Are we ready? I'm not confident. 

 

Risk Management requires looking beyond the day-to-day activities and considering potential outcomes from those activities. This includes personal, corporate, societal and government activities. Risk Managers are best positioned to communicate potential scenarios that may benefit or harm individuals, companies, society, etc.  

 

It is also incumbent on the Risk Manager then, is to facilitate communication, and also to look to themselves and those around them, to consider and assess the potential personal impact, and to prepare. 

 

Somehow, we each need to consider our plans and options, and then act. 

 

Somehow, all that has happened in the past year(s) does not represent an end, but only part of a continuum of change.

Cryptocurrencies have collapsed, and with them, well, nothing yet, other than some seriously distorted egos, and possible in the global economic system in 2023. Still, a lot of “money” was created out of thin air over the past decade, and much of it disappeared back into thin air this year. But again, was any of it real? I guess to small “investors” (speculators) it did, for many, have a serious impact. 

 

On the other hand, there were no new pandemics. But there could be, and probably will be. Well, not ”probably”; certainly. Will governments, businesses, society, and individuals be ready? Who knows? But I have only modest confidence that society will be able to cope with a “real” pandemic. Avian Influenza remains my biggest worry, should it become easily transmissible from human to human. 

 

The freeing up of Covid restrictions in China, after a Zero-Covid policy that saw them come through the first waves fairly unscathed, is now resulting in a wave of Covid across China that is quite scary. Will this create a sizable enough pool of viruses to encourage serious mutations leading to a renewed global pandemic? Who knows, but if it does, we can be pretty confident that there will be suffering on a scale that we did not see in the first waves. Covid restriction exhaustion will clear the field for newer and more serious strains to run rampant worldwide. 

 

Hanging over all of this is the slow-motion (with sudden grim reminders) Climate Change. Melting glaciers, Greenland itself melting with all sorts of grim predictions. The Antarctic ice shelves and equally grim predictions. Is the ongoing North American drought going to abate any time soon, or will climate change reinforce the existing drought conditions and make matters worse?  

 

Through all of this, there is a sense of limited personal ability to respond. What can we as individuals, do that will actually make a real difference. Sure, let's all use metal straws.  

 

The reality is that for most people on this planet, the only changes that they need and want to skew toward more consumption and resource use, not less. And we cannot say to billions of people that they cannot have food security, electricity for lighting, heating, cooking, and all other activities that reduce suffering and expand the quality of life. For goodness' sake, we cannot even get people with everything in rich countries to stop spending, using, and consuming, all to show that they are, somehow, superior to their “peers”.  

 

For the rest, the 10% or even the 15%, it is frustrating to feel that there is little that can be done that will make a real, tangible difference. What can I do to bring the rains back and refill dams in North America? What can I do that will stop the melt in Greenland, or reduce the temperatures in Greece and Spain in the summer? 

 

Through all the frustration and sense of personal disempowerment, we still need to be considering our own responses. Inaction is a response. But planned or accepted inaction is different from ignorance-based in action.  

 

On a call last week talking about sustainability, I posed a question about actions to prepare for the impact of climate change. My challenge to the panel was to consider responses in three categories: 

 

1. Personal. How should we be preparing for ourselves and our immediate family, and in a wider circle those important to our community and us? 
2. Corporate. What should companies be considering and doing? 
3. Government and their responsibilities to their people, environments, and basically anything ‘too big’ for categories 1 and 2. 

 

I think we all need to be looking at the coming year(s) with this in mind.