Instability in the Russian periphery

This is just a very quick note to highlight the medium-term potential for serious conflicts around the Russin periphery. The 'distraction' of almost all of Russia's combat capability to the Ukrainian war will deprive Moscow of its influence across the rest of its sphere. 

Already we see a renewed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, a conflict that is 30+ years old, but 'frozen' by the Russian alliance with Armenia, until two years ago when Azerbaijan finally felt they had the capability, will, and ability to achieve their goals before Moscow could enforce a peace. 

It seems Azerbaijan may believe that Russia will not have the authority of power to impose a new peace. This could mean a renewed war. Already 'border skirmishes have killed almost a hundred people over the past couple of days. This could get much worse, quickly. Armenia has called on Russia to send military support and peacekeeping. That is unlikely to be at a force level sufficient to deter Azerbaijan.

This is one example only.

Looking westward to Georgia, will they contemplate asserting its sovereignty over South Ossetia and Abkhazia? Both were taken from Georgia in 2008 in response to Georgia's insistence on seeking NATO membership. Neither South Ossetia nor Abkhazia has been incorporated into the Russian Federation, but both have been recognised by Russia as 'independent' states and are garrisoned by Russian troops. 

How long will it be before Putin is forced to hollow out his garrisons, and what will Georgia's response be?

How long will Chechniay continue to play the game of being a quasi-independent state within the Russian Federation? The cream of Chechen pro-Russian forces are committed to Ukraine, leaving a rump of 'loyal' forces at home.

The coming couple of years could see renewed conflict surrounding Russia. Much will be blamed on external interference (the CIA, American and European clandestine support, Islamic fundamentalism supported by the Taliban and Iran), and much of it will be. After all, stirring up the provinces has been a time-trusted way of distracting the centre. 

With or without external support, expect the Russian periphery to become an active, and dangerous area of the world. There are too many scores to be settled, and there is no longer a central force strong enough to enforce stabilisation.