If Covid-19 was relased from a lab...

The American government’s response to Covid-19 was a disaster, and if the “Lab Leak” theory was actually believed, then the response bordered on the criminally negligent. If the leak was intentional, the response was treasonous.

The “Lab Leak” conspiracy theory persists, and as there is no “proven” release vector, and the Chinese government has not been as open as it could have been, even I am forced to accept that it is a possibility. 

Of course, there are basically five potential paths here that the ‘release’ of Covid-19 could have followed:

1. A completely natural transmission between species in the wild (or int eh wet-market, etc).
2. An accidental release from a lab.
3. An intentional release from a lab.
4. Modification of the virus in the lab and accidental release.
5. Modification of the virus in the lab and intentional release.

The first two are effectively the same, as the release is of the native virus into the population, and the immediate source is irrelevant. 

The third and fifth are most worrying, as it implies the intention, but does not then confirm that it was something acceptable to the Chines government. If it was acceptable or done at the direction of the Chines government, then it was an act of war. Number four is a worry because it implies that the released virus could be more dangerous than the native version.

But, and here is the important point, if the US government has any evidence or reason to suspect that the release of Covid-19 came from numbers 3, 4 or 5, then the failure to effectively respond is tantamount to abandoning the American people. A vigorous response was needed, starting with stating clearly to the American (and world) people that a dangerous virus was released, that medical professionals and scientists were analysing it and determining the best way to protect yourself from exposure, and what to do in the case of exposure.

To downplay something potentially catastrophic was criminal. And 600,000, so far, Americans have died for that criminal neglect and deceit.

If the US government (and President Trump in particular) actually believed that the release was intentional and potentially of a modified virus, the response should have been fundamentally different.

An intentional release of a deadly virus would be an act of war, if it was aimed at decimating an adversary's population and economy. The response would need to be a national defence response, with the objective of halting the spread of the virus and protecting critical national infrastructure and command and control structures. In a shooting war, you do not tell your population that there is no problem and that you should not bother to support a national effort to respond. 

The Defence Production Act would be invoked almost immediately to produce the materials required to protect the population and prepare armed forces to support civilian efforts, and respond against an enemy if needed. 

Roosevelt did not tell America to carry on as before after Pearl Harbour, and Kennedy certainly did not mince words during the Missile Crisis. After 9/11, George Bush was famous for (not) saying “My fellow Americans, something bad happened in New York, and now Donald Trump has the tallest building, But don’t worry, very few people were killed (bigger numbers would make me look bad), and this will not impact you, so you can ignore it as a liberal plot to make us look bad”.

If (a big if) Trump and his cronies actually believed that the release was intentional (as a modified or natural virus) then basically that is what he has said. “We might be under attack, but as it will make me look bad, I’m telling you to ignore it”. 

Clearly, if scenario number five is the truth, and if there was any evidence to support that scenario, then the US would be at war with China. If an adversary were to engineer a virus and then intentionally release it (presumably after having developed some mechanism to reduce the impact on their own population, then that would represent a biological warfare attack. The fact that something is banned international treaty certainly provides no comfort or confidence that it is not or will not be done.

Therefore, if China did bio-engineer Covid-19, and did intentionally release the virus, then Trump’s failure to put the US on a war footing, to mobilise the entire federal government to the protection of the American people and allies, would be an unprecedented dereliction of duty. Furthermore, if the US intelligence community actually believed that to the case, then such information would have been shared with allies, to protect their people and to solidify an alliance against the perpetrator of a biowarfare assault on the world.

Yet none of this happened. Why?

Is Trump the greatest traitor in American history? Has he sold out the US to Putin and Xi? Or, more likely, is he simply the venal narcissist that he appears to be, surrounded by sycophants too afraid to disagree with him?

Any of those options are dangerous. Sure, he’s gone. But all those sycophants are still there, still rejecting facts, still hypothesising without basis, all to distract from his absolutely disastrous response. And they must distract, or the harsh light will fall upon them, and on their culpability in allowing 600,000 of their fellow citizens to die, so far.

Other countries reacted quickly, locked down, but kept the lights on. Leaders around the world listened to the scientists, tracked cases, isolated patients, quarantined individuals and cities. Took the hard decisions that leaders are expected to make.