As we lead up to the election, we repeatedly hear, "If (fill in the blank) wins, I'm leaving the country". Okay, good for you, but I have a few suggestions as someone who said that and then did it. What follows is an update from this same advice from 2016, when the choice was stark, but not as frightening in the potential outcome. It is that time again; the US election cycle is heating up, and like good brewing beer, the scum is rising to the top. Unlike good beer brewing, the scum is not being scraped off and discarded, hosed away into the metaphorical gutters of history, yet.
(This is written primarily for Amerikans, but with elections coming up in so many countries this year and in the UK next year, this applies to any of them; just change anything US-specific to your own country)
The world has changed since I wrote the first version of this in 2016. Then, the world was a “happier” place, with an international order and reasonable peace and cooperation. Climate Change was happening, but the hot summers had not yet become the “fire season”. Europe had seen the back of its worst crisis (Greece) and had yet to enter its next crisis (Brexit). More importantly, Europe was not on the cusp of WWIII, and Ukraine looked more and more like a future EU member state. In the US of Amerika, the "War on Women" rages along with the "War on Anyone Not a White Male".
Back then, no one even thought to ask a candidate, “Will you accept the outcome of the election?” Neither candidate was accused of #TRE45ON, and neither was facing 88 felony charges for attempting to overthrow the government. Policy was the primary reason for disagreement, not fear that Lincoln’s admonishment would be disregarded by his own party: “that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.” For all its faults, by 2016, the United States continued to demonstrate that it was possible to transfer government between losers and victors peacefully and with decorum.
In 2016, then people said “If X is elected, I’m leaving the country” it was more out of petulance than actual fear of potential persecution if they stayed. Today the sentiment is out of fear, be it for reproductive freedom, personal freedom, economic choice, gender and racial equality, and fear of a potential fascist dictatorial state enabled by a corrupt Supreme Court and corrupted executive branch of government.
For others, there is a fear of taxes and a diminishing of their wealth or their dreams of wealth. Even the most prosaic concerns about the cost of living in the US and a desire to live their lives in lower-cost countries (though this driver for moving is constant and not a potential outcome of the coming election).
You’ve made up your mind; it is time to go. What is my advice, having “gone” before, multiple times?
First, if only it could be easy. There is work to manage, property to find and (rent or buy), and attempting to find a way to economically survive post a move. And of course, the move needed to be legal, or there would be no difference between you and an economic migrant trying to sneak into Europe by boat.
For those of you who really mean it, let me give just a few suggestions based on having done it.
First, if you have already identified your future country of residence, then some of this will not matter. For example, if you have already identified Mexico, Ecuador, or somewhere else as your future home, then you can skip section 3 below about selecting the location.
1. Make the personal commitment. Talk to yourself, your spouse, family. Make sure that everyone is, if not supportive, then understanding. But also test yourself - am I just saying this, or do I really, really mean it? Look around. Are you genuinely ready to leave your community, friends, and the things you've been doing and taking for granted? If so, read on.
2. Plan. Long in advance. Get as much ready and thought-out as you can. Depending on who wins, you may be at the back of a very long queue of people who feel the same way, so start NOW. There may not be a million economic or political refugees streaming north and south across American borders into countries with makeshift refugee camps, but there will be queues to speak to someone at a consulate or embassy, delays for passports and visas, and limited jobs already being taken by those in front of you.
Know also that you will be required to provide copious amounts of documentation. Unless you are one of the very many Americans with parents or grandparents from another country, you probably will not qualify for automatic residence or citizenship. Be prepared to source copies of your birth certificate, marriage certificate, education documentation, health records or a medical assessment. In most cases, all these documents must be apostilled and not more than three months old at the time of submission.
3. Where? Not such an easy question. Canada; well, maybe. But the real question is; where in the world will I feel at home, has what I need in infrastructure, and is politically acceptable to me (after all, you will be leaving because of a politically unacceptable outcome). One rule-of-thumb is that you are NOT going on holiday, so if you've been somewhere on holiday and said, "I could live here", you probably either cannot or would not want to year-round.
So, what are your criteria? May I suggest the following:
A. Language: how important is language to you, or do you speak a second language, which will certainly help narrow down your choices. Learning a language is not easy, but is possible and can be huge fun. It can also be a huge hindrance to getting things done and enjoying yourself. Some countries have a very large population of people who speak English as a second language. Countries that rely on tourism also tend to have high rates of fluency in English.
B. Political System: Are you happy with a totalitarian regime as long as they don't bother the foreigners, or do you demand a democratically elected government? Some very nice places are ruled by dictators or monarchs yet are full of opportunity and fabulous people. Remember that you have NO say in that country, so be ready to leave your political opinions in the US when you leave. In fact, in some countries, it is illegal even to speak ill of the country.
C. Economy: If you are going to "retire" then the choices are much wider, but if you will need to work, you might want to consider developed economies. Associated with this is your ability to get a work visa or other authorization to earn a living in the country. Do not assume you can work "under the table" unless you are a true "digital nomad".
Of course, some countries are more "open" than others, and it does help to have a second citizenship. And by open, let’s call a cat, a cat: I mean corrupt. In many countries there are two prices; cash and card (or any official bank transfers). There are also differing levels and types of corruption. In some countries, you always have a $20 bill on you, as that is the standard “donation” that is expected by the police. In others, be ready to say “I’ll pay cash” and see if that changes the price. But know in advance what is expected. Offering a $20 donation in New Zealand will get you arrested. Saying you’ll pay cash in Greece might get you a better price. "Is there a police charity" works well in Panama.
D. Civil Stability: Some countries have a higher potential (or current) for civil war, social unrest, or outright war with a neighbour. How safe do you want to feel? In some countries, the overt oppression of minorities creates an environment of almost continual latent violence, covered over by a patina of civility and culture. And you can forget your guns. In almost all countries, guns cannot be brought into the countries in your personal effects that you ship, and ownership of guns is either prohibited or very difficult to obtain. For example, Panama allows private gun ownership with a permit (but you cannot bring your guns into the country), but in three years, we heard only about people who had applied for a permit but had not been granted one after waiting multiple years.
E. Population Density: Hey, we all want to be in the countryside, right? But realistically, most people live in cities, and some very attractive countries are effectively city-states. Remember also that Islands are wonderful, with beaches (most) and sunshine (many) but they are islands, and if you will suffer from "island fever" (a need to escape the island periodically, just for sanity’s sake). That applies to almost all islands, from the UK down to Singapore.
F. Climate: If you want to ski and like winter, then Dubai probably isn't for you. Likewise, escaping winter seems to be a huge draw. Florida isn't full of New Yorkers who cannot get enough snow. I like some seasons, but not too hot or much cold. More importantly, my wife loathes the cold, which is a major factor.
And do not forget longer-term climate and sea level rise. Do you really want to invest in a seaside villa in a flat river delta? Sure, you might not be consistently flooded out in the next decade, but in a couple of decades, your seaside property will be “underwater” in value (also a consideration if you are interested in an island retreat). The same consideration applies to potential temperature changes over the coming decades.
G. Distance: Never forget the tyranny of distance. If you need to be close to family and friends, then consider just how far you are willing to be, and how long it will take you to get "home" if that is what you will still call it. New Zealand may be heaven on earth, but it is 24 - 36 elapsed hours of travel from North America or Europe, meaning visitors effectively need to dedicate two weeks to make the trip worthwhile, and so will you be going "home" for a visit.
H. Legality of your Move: Remember that different countries have different visa requirements. Some countries (like Panama and Mexico) have “Friendly Nation” visas and “Jubilado” or “retiree” visas, requiring only proof of a monthly pension of a certain value. Other countries allow “Investor” visas. Still others have “Golden Visas” that require a minimum level of investment, usually in property that you will live in.
Finally, you may have additional criteria of your own. Food, wine, sunshine, opportunities to work in IT, Risk, Accounting, Oil & Gas, etc. If you life for French food, don't even consider moving to the UK.
4. Meet the Natives. Well, at least meet people from that country. Hear from them the pluses and minuses, and ask them why they do not live there. Your assumptions about a place will be reinforced or corrected by getting to know people - the kind of people that will be around you every day. These people will also provide you with great pointers on how to settle in, and may have good in-country contact who can help. Their networks will be invaluable to you.
Better yet, do you already know people living there, friends from years past, work colleagues? When you arrive, you will want to tap into a network to help with the mundane and the complex. Having a network already in place will smooth the process. Getting electricity and gas, or water services turned on or registered in your name. Phone contracts, etc. While you may be able to do all of these, having help certainly will make any move smoother. There are relocation services that can help for a fee in most countries.
5. Visit. So you've picked a few places (or only one), met and talked with people from there, now it is time to make your knowledge a bit more real; go there. Spend a week or two or more. Do not look at it as a tourist; look at it as a resident. What do the supermarkets look like? Is there a good selection of the foods that are important to you, and at prices that you can afford? Forget American brands; look for local or regional equivalents or just commit to enjoying what is available locally.
Talk to local headhunters (if you are in an easily transportable profession). Walk through neighbourhoods that you will be able to afford to live in. You can rely on the fact that it will not look like the brochures and holiday snaps. You will get a sense of how nervous you feel (or not), the level of pollution and waste, and the friendliness (or otherwise) of locals as you wander around, have a coffee, and stop in stores.
You are now about as ready as you ever will be, and all that remains is for you to watch the November night results.
Of course, there is the risk that after doing all your prep, you may reach the conclusion that it doesn't really matter who wins; it is time to go anyway. In which case, I hope the list above helps you with your planning and eventual move.
