On 3 January 2026, the United States military, under the pretence of "law enforcement", invaded Venezuela and apprehended Nicolas Maduro, the sitting president (the legitimacy of his presidency is irrelevant to the nature of the action), and whisked him away to New York to stand trial. It took less than a day for the president to pivot from "it's the drugs" to "it's the oil, and we want it".
As soon as the news calmed down, I was asked to write my thoughts on the event. This paper is the result of that thinking and writing. Using a Risk Management paradigm that identifies and considers scenarios, I have attempted to outline the background and then describe several potential scenarios. I've included my completely arbitrary assessment of the probability of the scenarios occurring, and an equally arbitrary estimate of the timeframe.
It is, however, worth repeating a quote from Stephen Miller, President Trump's Assistant Chief of Staff, who is reputed to have the president's ear and trust.
“We live in a world, in the real world, Jake, that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time. We set the terms and conditions. We have a complete embargo on all of their oil and their ability to do commerce. So, for them to do commerce, they need our permission. For them to be able to run an economy, they need our permission. So the United States is in charge. The United States is running the country.”
Instead of outlining the document in detail, I'll include two Infographics produced by ChatGPT from it. One considers the document from the US American perspective, and the other from the Venezuelan perspective.
The US American Perspective:
The Venezuelan Perspective:
I would add that this post marks my first attempt to use AI to create an infographic from my content. The entire process of using AI to review and 'improve' my thinking has been unnerving, and there can be little doubt that the use of AI will alter people's creative processes. I am not yet convinced that the improvement will be for the better.
