By May 15 we will know...

May 15th. By this day that the war in Ukraine will have been decided, one way or the other. 

By May 15th, Russia will be willing to negotiate to retain Sevastopol, or Ukraine will be willing to negotiate the final transfer of Crimea to Russia in exchange for peace and a return to the Feb 2022 “borders”. It might not happen on that day, but by then, we will know which will be the more probable outcome. 

 

There will be a Ukrainian spring offensive. This has been foreshadowed since December or before. And both the Ukrainians and the Russians have been attempting to shape the battlefield for just this event. Russia is trying to draw out Ukrainian reserves and shatter their line, forcing the distraction of resources from the offensive.  

 

The defence of Bakhmut has drawn in Russian forces into an inverse caldron, with the defenders taking advantage of terrain and almost a decade to prepare for an expected Russian war. Russian losses outside (and inside) Bakhmut are, according to Western media, staggering. Furthermore, the attention to Bakhmut may be drawing attention away from other potential fronts.

 

Training of Ukrainian tank crews across Europe took place in January and February, and tanks are arriving in Ukraine today. Ukraine today also, probably, has a military that is as large as Russia's, possibly even larger. Conscription and volunteers have swelled the size of the Ukrainian military. I would caution that we have no visibility on Ukrainian losses, but we continue to be told they are significantly lower than Russian losses.

 

The fundamental difference in capacity between Russia and Ukraine is that Russia is the aggressor. Therefore it is more difficult for them to source a large pool of volunteers, while the invaded country can rely on the citizenry to volunteer to defend their country. In addition, Russia has their own stocks of weapons and ammunition, while Ukraine is calling upon the stocks and resources of much of Europe and the United States. While this is simplistic, and Russia is sourcing weapons from international allies (Iran and North Korea, for example) these are providers with far more limited capacity than Ukraine's suppliers. 

 

All this is leading toward a late March offensive. The ground needs to dry, and the forces need to be positioned.  In an age of drones, surprise is harder to achieve, so both sides will see, to some extent, the positioning and manoeuvring of the other.  

 

When it comes, it will be ferocious. And it will need to be. Ukraine will quickly claim resounding successes, and Russia will claim they have stopped the Ukrainians in their tracks. Both sides will flood the info-sphere with photos and video of the other's equipment in flames.  

 

The info-warfare will be playing out to convince audiences far from the battlefield; the politicians and citizens in countries supplying Ukraine. Victory in the offensive will cement support, while a stalled or failed offensive will lead to a too-rapid erosion of support. 

 

By May 15th, we will know if the offensive has been successful, and the question then will be “how far, how fast, and what will Russia salvage"? I predict a successful offensive could see as much as parts of Crimea in Ukrainian hands by the end of summer. Russia may be forced to the negotiating table to retain Sevastopol (because that will not be given up by Russia in any scenario, and a multi-year siege is unrealistic in the “modern” world).  

 

By May 15th, we will know if the offensive has failed to live up to the hype. If this is the case, and the fields of southern Ukraine are littered with burning Leopards and Challengers, Bradleys and Marders surrounded by dead soldiers, then Western public opinion will turn. The prospect of going through the process of arming and training a replacement army will be too much for Western governments, some facing elections cycles. If this happens, Ukraine will be forced to the negotiating table to seek what it can get, which certainly will be more than they have today.  

 

Lurking behind all of this will be the Western governments and their willingness to put (some) sanctions onto a separate negotiating table.  

 

But by May 15th, we will have a pretty good idea of how this war is going to play out.