The problem with Bluffing

There's a problem with bluffing in that eventually, you're going to be called, and you're going to have to show your deck. We're now hearing that trump's threats to retake the Panama Canal are in effect a bluff to try and weaken China's influence in Central and Latin America. That's great if the bluff works. But China has invested so much in Central and Latin America that they're not simply going to pull out even if Trump has an excellent relationship with Xi.  

  

And that means that at some stage, someone is going to call Trump's bluff. Does this mean that he has to invade and take over Greenland? Does this mean he has to invade and take the canal? 

  

Which of these will he have to do to prove he's not bluffing?  

  

Canada?  

  

Much of the Amerikan economy and, therefore, Amerikan society is contingent upon existing global trade routes and global trade relationships. We saw in the pandemic the impact of supply chain constraints caused by the shutdown of ports. That supply chain constraint resulted in multi-year high inflation in the United States, partly contributing to Donald Trump's victory.  

  

Adding additional costs through tariffs and inflation will return very rapidly to the Amerikan economy. Creating massive supply chain problems would result from an invasion of Panama to take the Panama Canal. There's very little likelihood that the Amerikans could take the canal and secure it without being taken out of commission by the Panamanians for a significant period of time. And by a significant period of time, we're probably talking one to three years.  

  

So the potential economic dislocation and negative impact on the Amerikan economy from the combination of tariffs and the shutting of the Panama Canal would be crippling for the Amerikan economy as it currently functions. It is a delicate but very robust system as long as particular levers and legs of that economic system are not damaged.  

  

Repeat the supply chain problems of the pandemic, and the economy will collapse again. 

  

And, of course, it's doubtful that the Amerikan military could actually take the Panama Canal and keep it functioning. The Panamanian government and the Panamanian military, not to mention the Panamanian people, would simply not allow that to happen and would probably rather destroy pieces of the canal than allow the Amerikans to conquer it and retain control for any period of time.  

  

And invasions don't happen overnight. President Trump doesn't wake up one morning and say, “I want you Mr military to invade Panama next week”.  

  

Until we see the Amerikan military actually begin preparations foreign invasion of one of those three then his bluff will be treated as exactly what it is, a bluff. However, the US military probably does not have the capability to invade Canada, Greenland, and Panama, certainly not at the same time. Trump might want his military to do so, and might order them to be ready to do so, but they would not be able to do so effectively.  

  

Panama would be relatively easy, and by that, I mean relatively only. In 1989, the Amerikans invaded Panama, but they had the advantage of having military bases in the Canal Zone that they could use to expand from. Any invasion at this time would have to be staged from someplace other than Panama itself. It is very unlikely that Costa Rica or Colombia would allow the hosting of Amerikan forces for an invasion. That means an airborne and navy assault directly into Panama itself. 

  

The Amerikan military took over 6 months of build up in Saudi Arabia for both the liberation of Kuwait and then later the invasion of Iraq. That was 6 months building and populating bases on the ground from which troops could jump off directly into enemy occupied territory. An invasion of Panama would require a landing securing a beach and bringing in enough forces then to create a bridgehead that would be used then to advance and take over the rest of the country. OR at least, to take over those bits of the country at the canal so cologne in the north and Panama city in the south. To do that you're invading and taking the two major population centres of the country.  

  

By the time you've managed to get forces ashore and move them to the canal to secure the canal itself in the canal infrastructure, you've probably lost a functioning in working canal. The Panamanian forces will have sabotaged anything that the Amerikans are attempting to gain. That leaves the canal non-functional which effectively means all shipping from the Amerikan East coast or to the Amerikan east coast from Asia has to go around Cape horn. That was the entire purpose of the Panama Canal was to cut out that dangerous and very long journey.  

  

Could the Amerikans invade with a purely airborne exercise landing troops airborne troops to take the control points at both ends of the canal? Certainly they could. But that would be a very difficult operation. And would be fraught with danger and risk. There's then the issue of once the specific targets have been taken and secured, actually getting enough forces onshore to create a safe corridor of control. The United States does not have the forces required to create a safe corridor that will allow them to operate through and around Colon and through and around Panama City. 

  

As the Panamanian president pointed out in response to Trump, an invasion of Panama would also result in a massive influx of additional migrants heading towards the Amerikan border. Currently, the Darien Gap between Columbia and Panama is a route for illegal immigrants and is, in some small part, controlled and managed by the Panamanian government. 

  

At the other end of Panama there's the border with Costa Rica which while controlled by both countries is quite porous. Are the Amerikans going to invade and take all of Panama up to an including the border with Costa Rica to stop the migration? I very much doubt that they would care. After all anyone who makes it all the way to the United States will just be rounded up, put into an internment camp, and deported by Trump and his minions. 

Bluffing only works if the other side(s) don't know you are bluffing. They know that Trump is bluffing, and therefore, there is little actual risk. And if he is not bluffing, the price to Amerika will be far too high.

Amerikan Refugees, The Rest of the World Doesn't Want You.

I read a funny article yesterday about how interest in emigration from Amerika has spiked after the election. Part of it makes me laugh.  

 

“Google searches for "move to Canada" surged 1,270% in the 24 hours after U.S. East Coast polls closed on Tuesday, company data shows. Similar searches about moving to New Zealand climbed nearly 2,000% while those for Australia jumped 820%.” 

 

Boy, have I got some bad news for those people. Most countries do not want you. 

 

Your tourist dollars, yes. You, no thank you. There are countries (like Panama and Ecuador) that make it “easy” for Amerikans to immigrate. But most places do not. And they do not for all the same reasons Amerika tries to limit migration. They do not want to be overrun by people “taking our jobs” or of dubious character. Even Panama, one of the more corrupt countries I’ve lived in, requires a clean police report from wherever immigrants are coming from. 

 

But that is only one tiny little issue. The biggest issue facing any Amerikan who wants to leave the country is that most other countries don’t want Amerikans. Sure, countries need skilled individuals and will find ways to accommodate those people (and their families). But most people in most countries will be ready and very willing to explain to any Amerikan in great detail all the times Amerika shat on them as a country or on their neighbouring countries. 

 

“Did you know that Amerika imposed a 100% tariff on New Zealand lamb in the early 2000s?” Why? Because New Zealand has no predators, and the depression/recession of the 1980s resulted in the removal of all subsidies for lamb farming. The entire industry had to restructure, and NZ lamb undercut Amerikan lamb by thirty to forty percent. Amerikan farmers could not accept that and had the Clinton administration impose tariffs because NZ lamb was “subsidised”. 

 

They remember every single coup supported by the US of Amerika. They remember every single time Amerika sided with their primary enemy, no matter what the reasons. They remember every single time Amerika invaded or bombed any other country. They still remember Vietnam and hold all Amerikans personally responsible. In Panama, they celebrate two Independence Days, one from Spain and one from Columbia. But they also celebrate Martyrs Day (January 9th), commemorating anti-Amerikan riots on January 9th, 1964, when there were riots over the sovereignty of the Panama Canal Zone. Amerikans are recommended to stay home on January 9th. 

 

And if an Amerikan ally did something nasty, they remember and remind you that Amerika did nothing to reign them in. The military aid continued to flow, and there were no diplomatic sanctions. 

 

Any Amerikan who is upset about Amerika’s support for Israel and their genocide, just wait until they are told that they are personally responsible for that genocide because they are Amerikan and support the Amerikan governments. The bombs that fall are Amerikan. The F-16 and F-15s dropping those bombs are Amerikan. The Apache helicopters are Amerikan. Each Amerikan is answerable for every crime committed by Amerika over the past seventy to eighty years. And while Amerikan schools do not teach the truth about Amerikan history, people outside Amerika know Amerikan history. Blacks lynched (were any of your ancestors involved?) and slavery (wasn’t the country built on that?). 

 

Oh, but Amerika has this wonderful Constitution that protects everyone’s rights. 

 

Yes, thank you. That brings up another question. Why on earth doesn’t Amerika do something about the guns and the school shootings? Talk to people who are getting ready to visit Amerika and ask them if they have any worries about their upcoming trip. Not all of them, but a fair proportion will say that they are afraid of a cop killing them for no reason. Really? Are you ready to answer how Amerika lets that happen? So, are you ready to defend the Second Amendment? Good luck with that. You will be laughed at, at best. If it sounds like they have accepted your point of view, trust me, they haven't; they just know there is no point in arguing religion with idiots.

 

To be fair, most countries do not want unfettered immigration by anyone from anywhere. They do want to control the flow of people to avoid the collapse of infrastructure and services. And so, they will have limits on the numbers and types of people (including Amerikans) that they allow in. Easiest, of course, are those who can buy their way in. 

 

Buying your way in is easiest if you are a billionaire. Peter Thiel, billionaire and owner of JD Vance, bought his New Zealand permanent residency visa and citizenship. If you are a billionaire you are welcome anywhere, regardless of your views or beliefs or history. 

 

But if you are not a billionaire, then you’d best have plenty of money and a “desirable” profession. A desirable profession to meet most countries' immigration requirements (they don’t want to let just anyone in) and plenty of money to pay for the move and setting up costs, including buying a home or renting long term. In many countries, there are limitations on the professions you can practice. These limitations can be soft (require recertification in your profession) and hard (in Panama, accountants and lawyers must be Panamanian citizens to practice legally). 

 

But mostly, countries are uncomfortable (though perhaps not officially) with foreign cultures moving into their neighbourhoods. Does that sound familiar? 

 

And I have seen and heard Amerikans disparaging my wife for having a French accent (“Foreigners are ruining the country, they really shouldn’t be here” - yes, that was said within earshot, intentionally, in a supermarket in Amerika). 

 

Let me assure you that the Amerikan accent is held in contempt outside Amerika. It is a sign to locals that there are people with no culture but plenty of money (or so they think). Amerikans are marks, every one of them. And if they are not a mark, they are ignored, or ridiculed.  

 

My favourite story is about our being in a restaurant in Paris in the early 2000s before indoor smoking bans became law. We were in a bar-restaurant in the heart of Paris, sitting enjoying our wine, smoke swirling around us. Suddenly, we heard a loud Amerikan-accented woman shouting, “Garçon. Garçon”. (Please, do not call the waiter “garçon”, a simple "s'il vous plaît" will work much better.) You could see all the French watching, with more mirth than unpleasantness, as the waiter came over. “Garçon! We specifically asked for Non Smoking”. “Ba, oui madam”, he said, pointing to the No Smoking sign on their table (situated in the middle of the restaurant, “Zis is zee Non Smoking table.” He turned and walked away. All the French sniggering into their hands. 

 

If you are really thinking of leaving Amerika, remember that you will be moving someplace that knows more about Amerika than you do, and not all that they know is flattering.  

 

But, but, you say, Amerika has done so much good in the world. Save it. I used to have that argument, and could even list the good. But outside Amerika they do not care. The trouble that Amerika has caused in support of Amerikan interests has so outweighed any good as to be tolerated at best.  

 

But, but, you say, everyone wants to come to America. Yes, they do. To make more money than they can at home. For the culture? Ha! For the freedom? Ha! For the money they can make, and then with luck they will make enough to go home. Or, they are coming to escape true hell and to try to bring their families with them. But for Amerika and Amerikan culture and freedom and the rest of it. Forget it. 

 

And just as those terrible foreigners refuse to assimilate into Amerika (where they are not welcome, trust me, we know), so Amerikans, rooted in their belief that Amerika is the shining city on the hill, do not integrate. Never have. Sometimes, they do not want to, and sometimes, because no matter how hard they try, they will always be seen as being Amerikan. Trust me, I know. 

 

So if you want to “leave Amerika”, good for you. But know that it will be a hard road. Sure, there are thousands of stories, and everyone who made the move will tell you how wonderful it has been. Believe them. But also understand that most of them did it not because the political party changed, but because they were already mentally prepared and ready to experience a different culture or cultures. 

 

If you want to flee Amerika, congratulations, you are the new refugee. I hope the world treats you much better than Amerika has treated refugees throughout the past hundred and more years. And you better hope they do, too.