To Secure the White House, Promise to Leave

I’m gyrating in my thinking about November and who will win. I expect the Democrats to win, and Biden to be re-elected. But, it is looking more and more like both parties are populated with geriatrics who refuse to give up power even when they know they are past their prime, well past their prime, and that it is time for a new generation. To the point of endangering all of us.  

  

But I will vote for Biden, because the alternative is so horrifying.  

  

We saw this with Ruth Bader Ginsberg. The Great Saint RBG blessed be her name. The great jurist. The champion of women's rights and equality. Knowing that she had terminal cancer, instead of stepping down while Obama had time to select a liberal successor, she stayed well into the Trump rule, dying just in time to ensure he could keep packing the bench with ultra-conservatives.  

 

Biden is doing the same. I’m not suggesting that he has terminal cancer or any other malady. I am suggesting that he is making the same mistake; holding on and not trusting that there is a strong bench to support and follow him. It is not like the Democratic Party has a single figurehead cult leader. There is no need for Biden to demand that his supporters come and protest outside the courthouse, or bleat platitudes and attack judges, their families, or jurors hearing cases.  

 

There is a huge bench of highly capable people. Would all of them win against a Republican contender? Maybe not. But many, if not most, would. And almost all of them would make great leaders of the nation.   

 

Not because of their personalities or cults, but for their energy and the policies that they support.   

 

And yet here we are, six months out from one of the most consequential elections in US history, and there is a real chance that the Party of MAGA, the Cult of Trump, might win. The party that openly says they want to control the bodies and choices of 50% of the population. The party that openly works to reduce civil liberties and the right of minorities to vote. They actually have a chance.  

 

How is this even possible.  

 

How is it possible that the media ignores the ravings of a madman while highlighting every gaff of a person with a lifelong speech impediment but decades of service to the country?  

 

The answer is simple.  

 

Trump supporters view an establishment that is out of touch with them, their issues and challenges, and their fears. And like all good cults, MAGA thrives on fear. And it thrives on reminding people that their representatives are not representative of them. And it is difficult sometimes not to wonder if Washington actually does represent or understand the needs and concerns of the rest of the US.  

 

For decades, unfettered globalisation stripped America of its manufacturing jobs while mega-conglomo-corp companies pushed any and almost all competition to the side and into the ditch of history. Add to that “Citizen's United” allowing companies to effectively buy elections, and it is little wonder that there was (and is) such dissatisfaction.   

 

Add to the misery the perception that the Old Guard will not relinquish power, and we come to today. The Constitution of the United States says that a person must be 40 years old to be eligible to hold the office of President. Sadly, it is looking like the unofficial age has risen to 70+. This is not healthy for society. In 2020, both candidates were over 70 years old. This year, one is over 80, and the other is up way past his jail time (oops, he is well over 75). 

 

We’ve seen this maniacal clinging to power at all costs from both sides of the aisle. Mitch McConnell wouldn’t consider stepping down until he had his frozen moment. Speaker Pelosi refused to give up power until she lost her majority. Did she not trust any other member of the Democratic Party to be a great Speaker?  

 

The average age of Congressional Representatives and Senators has been increasing steadily over the past four Congresses. Today, the average representative is 58.4 years old, while the average Senator is 64.3 Years old. The AVERAGE member of Congress should be preparing to retire, not preparing for the second half of their congressional career.  

 

One of the principal responsibilities of leadership is to ensure there is a cadre of high-quality talent right behind you, ready to step into the role. Heaven help the team if you are the only talent or potential leader. How foolish that looks in business and equally foolish in politics.  

Of course I will vote to save the US from dictatorship. But I’m not happy about it, and many like me will vote to save the country. There had better be a clear demonstration of intent to then hand off the country to a new generation.

  

So, Prediction Time

Watching what is happening, seeing the general revulsion at Trump’s incitement of insurrection and the actual storming of the Capitol, I think it is possible to make some extrapolations.

First, the highlights. The 2024 Presidential Campaign will be fought by four political parties; the Democrats, the Republicans, the American Patriots Party, and the Libertarians. The split of the vote will be something not far from 55%, 25%, 10%, and 10%. President Harris will be re-elected in an Electoral College landslide that will eclipse Joe Biden's, and Trump's before him.

Now a little of the thinking behind this.

1. The Republican Party is dead as we know it. It can no longer hold the wide range of constituents, and the Trumpists will split to become a new party, the American Patriots Party. The rump Republican Party will be made up of long-term fiscal and social conservatives, especially the Constitutionalists. They will continue to control strong constituencies in the South and in some rural states. Religious conservatives will have a difficult time deciding where they will land, and many will stay with the Party that is conservative without being crazy. There are conservative Christians who have actually read the bible (well, the New Testament anyway) and cannot or will not be able to continue to support Trump and his anti-Christian behaviours.
2. The American Patriots Party will come into being in the first six months of 2021, and will be the Trumpist Party in all but name. Basically, this will be the White Supremacist party, and the home for QAnon and other conspiracy theorists. The party will never command a significant share of the vote. It will win a few seats in the mid-terms, but will find itself starved for money and influence in a congress that will still be distancing itself from Trump and his ilk. Their platforms will be and remain secessionist and anti “Deep State” and with Donald Trump Jr as the head of the party, they will perpetuate a “stab in the back” myth, knowing full well that they are stealing that from the early Nazi Party. There will be splinter groups even from this, as we should expect an Amerikan Eugène Terre'Blanche, with a similar end.
3. The Libertarian Party will be a big winner from the end of the Republican Party as we know it. The moderately educated and modestly affluent conservative but anti-government Republicans will look for a new home. Seeing their previous hope (small government, high tax-cut Republican congressmen and senators) become more ‘mainstream’ conservative and fiscally responsible, even voting for higher taxes to fund the deficit and military (but nothing else), they will look for a new home. They will be as disgusted by the American “Patriots” as most of Amerika, and so will find solace in the arms of the Libertarian Party.
4. This leaves us with the Democratic Party. As the party in power they will have a natural advantage, and simply introducing some calm will work to their advantage. Under Democrats the pandemic will be defeated and the nation will mourn. There will be, of course, plenty of Democrats who will ensure that the message is clear: under Trump, this was allowed to happen with no consideration for people, while under the Democrats the pandemic was brought to heel, and the nation healed. The economy will bounce back under a Democratic administration, and while the deficit will continue to climb, Treasury and Fed policies will ensure low-interest rates and plenty of stimulus to keep the markets afloat (and ensure that are no places better than the markets to invest for a return).

Yesterday (8 January 2020) in the Reagan National Airport, Senator Lindsey Graham was yelled at and called a Traitor. While personally, I believe he is a traitor, the people yelling at him were the very Trumpists he has encouraged through his slavish support for their prophet, Donald Trump. Graham was an ‘old fashioned’ Republican and will attempt to survive in the Republican Party, and that will be difficult. Look for him to announce that this will be his last term. He will be rejected by the Patriots Party, and his only hope is that the file used to blackmail his has not fallen into the hands of Don Jr. If that happens, then he may be retiring sooner than the end of his term.

Mitt Romney will probably emerge as the real leader of the traditional Republican Party. This will leave little room for the rejectionists. They will (probably) be deprived of plumb committee seats, and will find themselves in the back rows. As the only Republican to vote against Trump in the first impeachment, he is the only traditional Republican with the moral standing to front and leads the party. McConnell is yesterday’s fish, and wrapped in newspaper will be thrown onto the trash. Graham, as mentioned, has no hope of regaining any position of authority. His apparent but not disclosed health issues from a few months ago may precipitate an early retirement. He will not be missed. There are other traditional Republicans, but few have been able to demonstrate an adequate level of independence from Trump.

The likes of Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley were already positioning themselves to take over the Trumpist mantle, and they will have no home other than the Patriots Party. They will find themselves in the same fight that they are in now, against each other but more importantly against Don Jr and the rest of the clan. With their political experience and ability to raise donor money, they will have a decided advantage over Don Jr, and they will use that advantage. Can they actually push the Trumps out of the Trumpist party? That remains to be seen, but it is their only constituency and their only hope.

The undereducated white male is a shrinking demographic. In addition, simple shame will shrink the ranks of those who will be putting Patriot Party flags on their front lawns. Finally, the funding required to run a major political party does not come from the poor or the collection plate, it comes from mega (not MAGA) donors who expect a return for their investment. There is little chance of anyone getting a meaningful return from this crowd.

President Harris will of course win in 2024, and by a landslide bigger than her predecessor Joe Biden, as she cries out to carry on his legacy to build a greater, freer, safer and more egalitarian nation; a more “perfect union”,mmmmqmf2q2den will be remembered as the President who brought America Back from the darkness of the Trump years. But at 78, the pressures of the presidency will eventually take their toll. He will not, for one reason or another, run in 2024. Will Harris already be President by then? That is a 50-50 bet that I won’t take. But she will be Madam President in January 2025.