End of the Amerikan Empire in Three Trump Actions

Three events in the past three days, taken together, signal the end of the Amerikan Empire. Trump is doing what he can to make my prediction come true: This war will end with the US thrown out of the Middle East. Israel will become, for Republicans, an even more important bastion of Amerikan “power” than it is today, but will not fare so well under Democratic leadership. 

Over the past few days, Trump has: 

1. Deployed the one remaining Aircraft Carrier group from the Pacific to replace the Lincoln in the Middle East. 

2. Told Hegseth to reduce US participation in military exercises in South Korea while praising North Korea. 

3. Threatened to bomb Oman if it “gets in the way” of Trump’s attempts to end the war by negotiating an agreement on joint management of the Strait of Hormuz, that Trump said would be US Territory after the war. 

Those three actions together, signal to the world that the Amerikan Empire is coming undone at the seams, that is indeed a “paper tiger”. The actions have also demonstrated the transactional nature of Trump, and through him the fact that the United States can no longer be trusted.

Couple the destruction of trust with the demonstration of military weakness, and the empire as we know it is finished.  

Considering each of these: 

Aircraft Carriers 

The US has eleven aircraft carrier battle groups, either deployed or in home ports for refit, maintenance, or as part of a strategic capability ready to deploy wherever needed.  

The Amerikan Aircraft Carrier fleet has been the preeminent example of power projection, enabling the US to ‘be anywhere, anytime’ to face adversaries, to deliver relief, or simply to ‘fly the flag’. Aircraft carriers allow the US to project power across Asia without needing forward bases in every country. The presumed ability of the US Navy to take control of the skies over any country meant that the US could, in effect, shut down almost any military engagement against an Amerikan ally. 

North Korea could be assured that American naval airpower would come to the aid of South Korea in an invasion and would sweep the skies of any North Korean air assets. With that mission accomplished, nowhere in North Korea would be safe from air attack by the US or South Korean forces. 

As the world sees that US aircraft carriers are under strain from deployment in support of the Iran war, the actual deterrent capacity of the force comes under question. Supporting a carrier battle group during peacetime is a huge logistical undertaking. Sure, they don’t have to be followed by coal ships to refuel like the British High Seas Fleet at the beginning of WWI. But not every ship in a carrier group is nuclear powered, and they do require refuelling. 

Then there is the problem of provisioning the ships, keeping the aviation fuel tanks full for the aircraft, and keeping the larders full for the sailors. And all ships, nuclear powered or not, require constant maintenance of all systems. An ocean going navy, by its very nature, is going to be subject to the damaging effects of seawater and salty air, 24 hours a day, 365 days of the year. Every system will suffer corrosion and wear and tear. Every system will require maintenance. 

A new equation comes into play. 

Strike at the logistical support and the carriers become just like every other military asset, captive to resupply and bonded to fleets that must comply with the same limitations of fuel and fodder. 

Korea 

In two days, Trump instructed the Secretary of War (Defence) to reduce US participation in already scheduled military exercises with South Korea, and followed that with a sycophantic ‘Truth’ post extolling his wonderful relationship with Kim Jong Un, the great leader of North Korea. 

For many years Trump has flip-floped on his relationship with Kim, but keeps coming back to an adoration for Kim as an authoritarian leader with absolute power and dynastic credentials. Trump’s strange attraction to and deference to dictators serves as much as a warning to allies as it does a playbook for how to manipulate Trump and through him, US policy.

Kim is supplying arms and soldiers to Russia against Ukraine, and has been heavily sanctioned by the US for its nuclear weapons programme and development of long-range ballistic missiles.

Defense of South Korea has, for decades, been a cornerstone of US policy and has been a core element of the alliance system that the US has supported to ensure stability in Asia. The recognized major adversary has been China, and North Korea has been a Chinese surrogate.

Undermine  the alliance system and the stability of Asia, and in particular the ‘independence’ of Taiwan becomes all the more precarious. While China does not have a history of waging aggressive war (unlike the United States), the (re)unification of Taiwan is a core Chinese aspiration. Anything that normalises relations with North Korea and accepts their nuclear and ballistic missile programme undermines Asian stability.

Oman

The alliance system that the US has built in the Middle East mirrors the process and objectives of the Asian alliance system; ensure that Amerikan and regional interests are protected from disruption by providing a security framework upon which all participants can rely.

The Trump/Netanyahu war of  aggression against Iran was initiated without notifying allies whose territory and airspace would be used to wage that war. Aside from any diplomatic niceties, dragging allies into a war without the ability to prepare themselves was a betrayal. Each of those countries could be expected, reasonably, to attempt to manage their individual  exposure. They should also be expected to assess their own level of short and medium term risk.

As the Qatari Foreign Minister said early in the war, “The US is far away, while we have lived next to Iran for millennia, and will be living next to them for centuries to come. We must find a way to live together”.

Oman is attempting to do exactly that, find a way to live with Iran during this war and into the future. What the Iran/Oman negotiations demonstrate is that Amerika’s future in the Gulf has been assessed, and Oman knows that a weakened United States will be a bigger risk than a dominant but ‘trust worthy’ Iran.

The United States is, or soon will be, in retreat from the Gulf.

Summary

The Amerikan Empire, presumed to be the sole superpower after the fall of the Soviet Union, can no longer claim the mantle of global leadership, militarily, diplomatically, or economically (a topic for a different post, although without the first two it certainly cannot retain the third).

Furthermore, the destruction of trust will harm Amerika’s ability to influence global events and the global economy. Amerikan is in retreat, let's hope it is only a retreat and not a prelude to a Soviet Union style implosion and destruction of the country and institution itself.

With a Whimper, not a Bang

The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in China this weekend represents the second major blow to the US global empire in the space of a month. It signals the end of the “American Century”. Gone with a whimper, not a bang. 

 

First, Europe demonstrated that the relationship with Washington has changed, and that Europe is happy to be an adult, thank you very much. The US can join with Europe in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, or the US can sit this one out while Europe does what it must. Now China has hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin in northeast China, hosting Putin (Russia), Modi (India) and others in a direct snub of American authority. 

 

Two weeks ago, European leaders arrived in Washington to tell Trump that continuing to be Putin’s lapdog would result in Europe being unable to continue purchasing US Treasuries. There would not be a major sell-off; instead, there would be reduced or no further purchases. That would be a devastating blow to the US economy and Trump’s own ego, not to mention any hopes of retaining control of the House and Senate in the midterms. Of course, it was not presented in this manner, nor did anyone actually say it before, during, or after. Certainly, that was never mooted in the pre- or post-meeting communiqués. But vassal states do not group together and declare that they are attending any meeting, especially not en masse, without official invitation and weeks, if not months, of diplomatic preparation and protocol negotiations. And to hold a pre-meeting at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington before heading over to the White House could only be construed as a major snub to protocol. 

 

Now, without having to issue any threats (or ‘discussions of Europe’s limited options’), China has demonstrated that there is a vibrant and cooperating world that does not need, or desire, to include the US. 

 

 

 

This image of regional leaders from across Asia and Europe, including Lukashenko from Belarus and Erdogan from Turkey. More disturbing (if you are Trump or sitting in any office in New York, or London, Paris, or Bonn) is the economic mass that is represented in the photo. More than 20 leaders from mainly Central Asia and South Asia.

 

The combined GDP of the participating countries is estimated to be over $80 trillion, or three times the US GDP, and 50% higher than the combined GDP of Europe and the US. 

What is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation? 

 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic and international security organization of ten member states. It was established in 2001 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In June 2017, it expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan. Iran joined the group in July 2023, and Belarus in July 2024. Several countries are engaged as observers or dialogue partners. 

  

It is the world's largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 24% of the world's total area (65% of Eurasia)[4] and 42% of the world population. As of 2024, its combined nominal GDP accounts for around 23%, while its GDP based on PPP comprises approximately 36% of the world's total. 

 

(Wikipedia accessed 02/09/2025): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation 

 

While leaders gathered in Tianjin, in Washington, the Dear Leader seems to have disappeared.  

 

What incredible lack of leadership and vision is required to abrogate the American position of soft, hard, and economic power within such a short period of time? Six months of incompetent leadership is all it took. And now, with Washington effectively on a “death watch” waiting for Trump to die or return even more enfeebled, the incompetent leadership is being replaced by a leadership void.  

 

In a dictatorship, no one can speak for the dictator, and all are afraid to take positions that they are not entirely confident will be supported by the dictator, for fear of appearing to usurp the authority of the Dear Leader. Any initiative could be a direct threat, and as such, any action is a very dangerous thing to do. 

 

And so American leadership, focused on Trump’s health and the looming invasion of Chicago and/or New York City, is failing to rise to the moment. Indeed, the isolationism demonstrated through the destruction of USAID (US Agency for International Development) and withdrawal from climate accords, the World Health Organisation, and the active antagonising of allies, has demonstrated that now is the time, finally, to turn away from the US to China. 

 

None of this needed to happen, of course. The US could still be the global leader, morally, economically, scientifically, medically, almost any ‘-ally’. Six months has squandered decades. Yes, it was coming for some time, but any competent administration could have softened the blow, delayed the inevitable by years if not decades.  

 

And so with a whimper, the American Century makes way for the Chinese Century. There are going to be ‘bangs’ along the way, but August 2025 was the month that history will record as the end of the American Empire.