With a Whimper, not a Bang

The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in China this weekend represents the second major blow to the US global empire in the space of a month. It signals the end of the “American Century”. Gone with a whimper, not a bang. 

 

First, Europe demonstrated that the relationship with Washington has changed, and that Europe is happy to be an adult, thank you very much. The US can join with Europe in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, or the US can sit this one out while Europe does what it must. Now China has hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin in northeast China, hosting Putin (Russia), Modi (India) and others in a direct snub of American authority. 

 

Two weeks ago, European leaders arrived in Washington to tell Trump that continuing to be Putin’s lapdog would result in Europe being unable to continue purchasing US Treasuries. There would not be a major sell-off; instead, there would be reduced or no further purchases. That would be a devastating blow to the US economy and Trump’s own ego, not to mention any hopes of retaining control of the House and Senate in the midterms. Of course, it was not presented in this manner, nor did anyone actually say it before, during, or after. Certainly, that was never mooted in the pre- or post-meeting communiqués. But vassal states do not group together and declare that they are attending any meeting, especially not en masse, without official invitation and weeks, if not months, of diplomatic preparation and protocol negotiations. And to hold a pre-meeting at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington before heading over to the White House could only be construed as a major snub to protocol. 

 

Now, without having to issue any threats (or ‘discussions of Europe’s limited options’), China has demonstrated that there is a vibrant and cooperating world that does not need, or desire, to include the US. 

 

 

 

This image of regional leaders from across Asia and Europe, including Lukashenko from Belarus and Erdogan from Turkey. More disturbing (if you are Trump or sitting in any office in New York, or London, Paris, or Bonn) is the economic mass that is represented in the photo. More than 20 leaders from mainly Central Asia and South Asia.

 

The combined GDP of the participating countries is estimated to be over $80 trillion, or three times the US GDP, and 50% higher than the combined GDP of Europe and the US. 

What is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation? 

 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic and international security organization of ten member states. It was established in 2001 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In June 2017, it expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan. Iran joined the group in July 2023, and Belarus in July 2024. Several countries are engaged as observers or dialogue partners. 

  

It is the world's largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 24% of the world's total area (65% of Eurasia)[4] and 42% of the world population. As of 2024, its combined nominal GDP accounts for around 23%, while its GDP based on PPP comprises approximately 36% of the world's total. 

 

(Wikipedia accessed 02/09/2025): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation 

 

While leaders gathered in Tianjin, in Washington, the Dear Leader seems to have disappeared.  

 

What incredible lack of leadership and vision is required to abrogate the American position of soft, hard, and economic power within such a short period of time? Six months of incompetent leadership is all it took. And now, with Washington effectively on a “death watch” waiting for Trump to die or return even more enfeebled, the incompetent leadership is being replaced by a leadership void.  

 

In a dictatorship, no one can speak for the dictator, and all are afraid to take positions that they are not entirely confident will be supported by the dictator, for fear of appearing to usurp the authority of the Dear Leader. Any initiative could be a direct threat, and as such, any action is a very dangerous thing to do. 

 

And so American leadership, focused on Trump’s health and the looming invasion of Chicago and/or New York City, is failing to rise to the moment. Indeed, the isolationism demonstrated through the destruction of USAID (US Agency for International Development) and withdrawal from climate accords, the World Health Organisation, and the active antagonising of allies, has demonstrated that now is the time, finally, to turn away from the US to China. 

 

None of this needed to happen, of course. The US could still be the global leader, morally, economically, scientifically, medically, almost any ‘-ally’. Six months has squandered decades. Yes, it was coming for some time, but any competent administration could have softened the blow, delayed the inevitable by years if not decades.  

 

And so with a whimper, the American Century makes way for the Chinese Century. There are going to be ‘bangs’ along the way, but August 2025 was the month that history will record as the end of the American Empire. 

Why Alaska and After was Good for Ukraine

The “Summits” that took place this past weekend and week were interesting for what wasn’t publicly said by any of the participants (other than a few things said by Trump, but I’ll get to that in a moment). The next six months to a year will not be good for Trump or Putin, and will continue to be very difficult for Ukraine and Russia. But the US will not be abandoning Ukraine. 

 

What wasn’t said out loud was that Putin/Russia is buying time and exploiting its hold over Trump, whatever the reason is that Putin has such a hold, which clearly he does. They are not going to stop fighting, and they are not going to talk peace. Putin believes he can win, and that neutralising Trump and the US is a key part of his off-battlefield strategy. Putin/Russia has attempted to drive a wedge between the US and Europe from before they invaded Ukraine, and redoubled their efforts once Trump regained the White House. 

 

Trump, once again, held a private one-on-one meeting with Putin (in the limo) with no notes and no interpreter (none needed as Putin speaks English). As in Helsinki, this gave Putin an opportunity to remind Trump of whatever hold he has over him, and to set the stage for what was to come in the meetings. ‘Negotiations’ they were not. Twice now, Trump has met with Putin in private, and both times, Trump has come out looking like a kicked dog, full of fear coupled with adoration for his master. 

Trump stood at the podium and spouted Russian propaganda, just as he did in Helsinki. And he repeated it in follow-up interviews. All the while, his administration insiders looked on in horror.

 

Trump basically said that Putin’s position was the right one, that Ukraine started the war, and that it would not have happened if he were president. The idiotic rantings of a Russian sock-puppet. And with that, the stage was set for the US to throw Zelensky to the Russian wolves. 

What followed changed the script for the coming year.   

There are other ‘players’ in this game, and each has agency of their own. 

 

Zelensky, at the same time that Trump was surrendering the West to Putin, was on a conference video with European leaders and then meeting in person with them. It was announced that Zelensky would be visiting Washington on Monday. Okay, that might have been expected, and who knows, there might even have been an invitation issued before the ‘Summit’ in Alaska. Invitation or not, Zelensky was going to Washington, and Washington could not say “don’t come, our mind is made up”. 

 

Then the real twist. Leaders of major European countries, along with the head of the EU, unilaterally stated that they would accompany Zelensky. No invitation, basically an ultimatum: “We’re coming also, try to stop us”. The unspoken words were that they have skin in this game, and they back Zelinsky, and there would be no repeat of the attempted humiliation of Zelensky in the White House. 

 

To explain what I believe happened either before or after the public meeting, but that I believe did happen, we need to go back almost six months and revisit the interactions between Trump and Carney of Canada.

 

To quote from an article in Law and Society, April 12, 2025: 

 

While Trump was gearing up his trade war machine, Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, wasn’t just sitting in Ottawa twiddling his thumbs. He’d been quietly increasing Canada’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds—over $350 billion worth by early 2025, part of the $8.53 trillion foreign countries hold in U.S. debt. On the surface, it looked like a safe play, a hedge against economic chaos. But it wasn’t just defense. It was a loaded gun. 

  

Carney didn’t stop there. He took his case to Europe. Not for photo ops, but for closed-door meetings with the EU’s heavy hitters—Germany, France, the Netherlands. Japan was in the room too, listening closely. 

  

The pitch was simple: if Trump went too far with tariffs, Canada wouldn’t just retaliate with duties on American cars or steel. It would start offloading those Treasury bonds. Not a fire sale—nothing so crude. A slow, steady bleed. A signal to the markets that the U.S. dollar’s perch wasn’t so secure. 

 

That’s all very interesting, but later in the article, the killer punch is delivered: 

 

Let’s be real: Trump’s spent years calling Canada a freeloader—remember his 2019 NATO jabs?—while ignoring the inconvenient truth. Canada’s $350 billion in U.S. debt isn’t charity. It’s a lifeline. Japan’s trillion-plus? Same deal. The EU’s pile? Ditto. These countries aren’t just buying bonds to be nice; they’re bankrolling the U.S. government. And when they threaten to pull the plug, even slowly, Washington listens. 

 

(https://lawandsocietymagazine.com/carneys-checkmate-how-canadas-quiet-bond-play-forced-trump-to-drop-tariffs/) 

 

The article discussed how coordinated selling would drive up government borrowing costs, slow government activity, result in lost jobs, and eventually a recession or depression. 

 

What the article didn’t say is that the ‘markets’ can see that coming, and very quickly the stock market will react, long before any real damage is inflicted. That’s what caused the start of the TACO-trade, the knowledge or expectation by the markets that “Trump Always Chickens Out”. As the deadline for the first wave of tariffs approached, the markets reacted, and Trump spooked. He only wants an upward trajectory in the markets, and sees that as one of the biggest indicators of his success. Even he knows that any downturn can be blamed on Biden for only so long. It might fly with his base, but not with Wall Street. 

 

Here are the European leaders who attended: 

  

Chancellor Frederich Merz of Germany  

President Emmanuel Macron of France  

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain  

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy  

President Alexander Stubb of Finland  

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte  

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen 

 

They did not throw out their schedules and duties to sit and listen to Trump spew the disorganised rubbish of an early dementia patient. They were there to say something. Something that was not said publicly, but that was said. The remarkable thing is that the markets know what was said and responded accordingly. They didn’t move. They didn’t move because TACO. They know what will happen.  

 

On Monday and Tuesday, Trump was told that it does not matter what Putin has on him, the US economy will collapse if he retreats from and abandons Ukraine to the Russians.  

 

I’ve not mentioned the Republican Senators or Congressional Representatives. They also know that supporting Russia is a losing proposition with their constituencies. Already, polling is showing that the electorate has little confidence in Trump’s handling of the Ukraine/Russia war. He is seen as Putin’s puppet, and that can only hurt the Republican Party and candidates up and down the ticket. They will also be making their views on this well-known to Trump and his minions, but again, behind closed doors. 

 

So now we just wait and watch for how Trump will walk back his pro-Russian rhetoric, and how we will construct a deal that will continue to squeeze Russia while arming Ukraine. All the while constructing that deal in such a way as to advance his fantasy that he is worthy of being awarded a Nobel Peace Prize.