To Secure the White House, Promise to Leave

I’m gyrating in my thinking about November and who will win. I expect the Democrats to win, and Biden to be re-elected. But, it is looking more and more like both parties are populated with geriatrics who refuse to give up power even when they know they are past their prime, well past their prime, and that it is time for a new generation. To the point of endangering all of us.  

  

But I will vote for Biden, because the alternative is so horrifying.  

  

We saw this with Ruth Bader Ginsberg. The Great Saint RBG blessed be her name. The great jurist. The champion of women's rights and equality. Knowing that she had terminal cancer, instead of stepping down while Obama had time to select a liberal successor, she stayed well into the Trump rule, dying just in time to ensure he could keep packing the bench with ultra-conservatives.  

 

Biden is doing the same. I’m not suggesting that he has terminal cancer or any other malady. I am suggesting that he is making the same mistake; holding on and not trusting that there is a strong bench to support and follow him. It is not like the Democratic Party has a single figurehead cult leader. There is no need for Biden to demand that his supporters come and protest outside the courthouse, or bleat platitudes and attack judges, their families, or jurors hearing cases.  

 

There is a huge bench of highly capable people. Would all of them win against a Republican contender? Maybe not. But many, if not most, would. And almost all of them would make great leaders of the nation.   

 

Not because of their personalities or cults, but for their energy and the policies that they support.   

 

And yet here we are, six months out from one of the most consequential elections in US history, and there is a real chance that the Party of MAGA, the Cult of Trump, might win. The party that openly says they want to control the bodies and choices of 50% of the population. The party that openly works to reduce civil liberties and the right of minorities to vote. They actually have a chance.  

 

How is this even possible.  

 

How is it possible that the media ignores the ravings of a madman while highlighting every gaff of a person with a lifelong speech impediment but decades of service to the country?  

 

The answer is simple.  

 

Trump supporters view an establishment that is out of touch with them, their issues and challenges, and their fears. And like all good cults, MAGA thrives on fear. And it thrives on reminding people that their representatives are not representative of them. And it is difficult sometimes not to wonder if Washington actually does represent or understand the needs and concerns of the rest of the US.  

 

For decades, unfettered globalisation stripped America of its manufacturing jobs while mega-conglomo-corp companies pushed any and almost all competition to the side and into the ditch of history. Add to that “Citizen's United” allowing companies to effectively buy elections, and it is little wonder that there was (and is) such dissatisfaction.   

 

Add to the misery the perception that the Old Guard will not relinquish power, and we come to today. The Constitution of the United States says that a person must be 40 years old to be eligible to hold the office of President. Sadly, it is looking like the unofficial age has risen to 70+. This is not healthy for society. In 2020, both candidates were over 70 years old. This year, one is over 80, and the other is up way past his jail time (oops, he is well over 75). 

 

We’ve seen this maniacal clinging to power at all costs from both sides of the aisle. Mitch McConnell wouldn’t consider stepping down until he had his frozen moment. Speaker Pelosi refused to give up power until she lost her majority. Did she not trust any other member of the Democratic Party to be a great Speaker?  

 

The average age of Congressional Representatives and Senators has been increasing steadily over the past four Congresses. Today, the average representative is 58.4 years old, while the average Senator is 64.3 Years old. The AVERAGE member of Congress should be preparing to retire, not preparing for the second half of their congressional career.  

 

One of the principal responsibilities of leadership is to ensure there is a cadre of high-quality talent right behind you, ready to step into the role. Heaven help the team if you are the only talent or potential leader. How foolish that looks in business and equally foolish in politics.  

Of course I will vote to save the US from dictatorship. But I’m not happy about it, and many like me will vote to save the country. There had better be a clear demonstration of intent to then hand off the country to a new generation.

  

Wonderful News: Republicans reject the 6/1 Commission

In the US Senate Republicans have blocked a bi-partisan investigation into the 6/1 insurrection. While some people are moaning and whining about the Republicans rejection of the Commission, I think this is great news. The Commission legislation as drafted should have been the Republicans dream commission. The bi-partisan agreement required agreement on which witnesses to call, who would get immunity, etc. The Republicans could have used that as an indefinite stall and pushed any meaningful results beyond the reporting date of the Commission. 

Republican leadership would have used the Commission to shield Republican lawmakers who are directly complicit in the insurrection, and would have hamstrung the Department of Justice, the FBI and other investigative agencies from doing their job. Even state-level investigations could have been impaired by Republican Senators and the Commission’s granting of selective immunity in exchange for testimony in front of the Commission, thus freeing these people from punishment or even a requirement to testify at the state level.

So not having those constraints on any Commission will be an excellent result.

Now the House Democrats can form their own Committee under their rules, and can compel anyone they want to testify, including former President Trump. Certainly, those who will implicate members of congress will be called, and will be required to testify under oath. Some may even be offered immunity for their testimony that directly accuses, not implicates, members of congress.

It is inconceivable that the invasion of the Capital on the 6th of January did not have support from and potentially direct collusion with some Republican members of the House or Senate. They need to be exposed, and they need to be charged. 

A Commission comprising, in part, a complicit subset of insurrectionists, with the ability to stop or delay testimony by those who will implicate them, is no Commission worth empowering.  

For example, Jim Jordan (“Gym” to me for his covering up the sexual abuse scandal when he was an assistant coach and the head coach was abusing wrestling students, who came to Gym for help, and who he turned away) is against the Commission. Why? Because he is a potential witness.

The Washington Post begins their article: “Several Republicans who oppose creating a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol are more than lawmakers making a public policy decision — they are potential witnesses to what former president Donald Trump and his aides were saying and doing as the mob laid siege.”

Even the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) would be a potential witness, to confirm the contents of his calls with Trump trying to get help, and being rebuffed by Trump.

The craven sycophants in Congress are running scared, and will until Trump is convicted in a court, or until individual congress members are convicted. And soon enough it will begin. And when they are charged, they will call it lies, of course, and their bases will, partially, either believe them or at least believe the lie that any alternative will be worse.

And enough will not believe them, and will stay home at the next election, if they are still in office and not in jail. But those who stay home will make the difference.

At the same time that the Democrat House of Representatives establishes their own Commission or Committee, the Department of Justice will be continuing its multiple cases against a wide range of people. This cannot be stopped by the Republicans, even though they will attempt to deride it as a partisan branch of government under the control of the Democrats. Logically this should be laughed at, as it will be pointed out that this is an acknowledgement that the DoJ under Trump was a politically partisan brand of government, but Republicans will spin that lie anyway. They can do that knowing that their acolytes either are too stupid to see what they’ve just done, or because they are too willing to believe that the “deep state” is Democrat and will be against anything that Republicans attempt to do.

Meanwhile, the little guys, and even the big-little guys, will begin to sing. They are already, we just are not seeing it yet. Enough of them were pulled into rooms and had the bright lights shown in their faces, with or without lawyers present. We won’t hear about it from the lawyers, since anything that they will be willing to say, grassing up their friends and militia-mates in order to stay out of jail will be with the approval of their lawyers to reduce their sentences. Not until the court cases. And then we will see the reports of who spoke with which members of Congress before the fateful day. Who knew what, and who encouraged what actions.

Because the little guys know they are going to jail unless they do deals. And some of them will be going to jail for a long time. Those that will only be in line for a short stint inside will also sing. This I said months ago, and I’m still confident it will happen.

In fact, when the Democratic majority in the House starts holding their own hearings, the little guys will be lining up to testify in exchange for some form of limited immunity. 

Meanwhile, at the bigger picture level, patience is the game. My main predictions from the 9th of January still hold: “First, the highlights. The 2024 Presidential Campaign will be fought by four political parties; the Democrats, the Republicans, the American Patriots Party, and the Libertarians. The split of the vote will be something not far from 55%, 25%, 10%, and 10%. President Harris will be re-elected in an Electoral College landslide that will eclipse Joe Biden's, and Trump's before him.” 

But it remains a waiting game. Mostly just waiting for the Republicans to continue to destroy themselves, and to leave traditional Republicans with no play to go, and no party to follow. The fiscally conservative, national defence and low tax voter will continue to watch the current Republicans spout treasonous crap while they lick Trump's boots (or wingtip shoes anyway). Trump will, at some point, have to dip into the $400 million that he scammed from people to pay to support his minions, even though supporting ‘down ticket’ (anything below himself) is not his style.

So with nowhere to go in their own party, they will either go to the Libertarians, or stay home. 

Ultimately, the rejection of the Commission by the Republicans was a self-defeating attempt to delay the inevitable, and I am thrilled.

So, Prediction Time

Watching what is happening, seeing the general revulsion at Trump’s incitement of insurrection and the actual storming of the Capitol, I think it is possible to make some extrapolations.

First, the highlights. The 2024 Presidential Campaign will be fought by four political parties; the Democrats, the Republicans, the American Patriots Party, and the Libertarians. The split of the vote will be something not far from 55%, 25%, 10%, and 10%. President Harris will be re-elected in an Electoral College landslide that will eclipse Joe Biden's, and Trump's before him.

Now a little of the thinking behind this.

1. The Republican Party is dead as we know it. It can no longer hold the wide range of constituents, and the Trumpists will split to become a new party, the American Patriots Party. The rump Republican Party will be made up of long-term fiscal and social conservatives, especially the Constitutionalists. They will continue to control strong constituencies in the South and in some rural states. Religious conservatives will have a difficult time deciding where they will land, and many will stay with the Party that is conservative without being crazy. There are conservative Christians who have actually read the bible (well, the New Testament anyway) and cannot or will not be able to continue to support Trump and his anti-Christian behaviours.
2. The American Patriots Party will come into being in the first six months of 2021, and will be the Trumpist Party in all but name. Basically, this will be the White Supremacist party, and the home for QAnon and other conspiracy theorists. The party will never command a significant share of the vote. It will win a few seats in the mid-terms, but will find itself starved for money and influence in a congress that will still be distancing itself from Trump and his ilk. Their platforms will be and remain secessionist and anti “Deep State” and with Donald Trump Jr as the head of the party, they will perpetuate a “stab in the back” myth, knowing full well that they are stealing that from the early Nazi Party. There will be splinter groups even from this, as we should expect an Amerikan Eugène Terre'Blanche, with a similar end.
3. The Libertarian Party will be a big winner from the end of the Republican Party as we know it. The moderately educated and modestly affluent conservative but anti-government Republicans will look for a new home. Seeing their previous hope (small government, high tax-cut Republican congressmen and senators) become more ‘mainstream’ conservative and fiscally responsible, even voting for higher taxes to fund the deficit and military (but nothing else), they will look for a new home. They will be as disgusted by the American “Patriots” as most of Amerika, and so will find solace in the arms of the Libertarian Party.
4. This leaves us with the Democratic Party. As the party in power they will have a natural advantage, and simply introducing some calm will work to their advantage. Under Democrats the pandemic will be defeated and the nation will mourn. There will be, of course, plenty of Democrats who will ensure that the message is clear: under Trump, this was allowed to happen with no consideration for people, while under the Democrats the pandemic was brought to heel, and the nation healed. The economy will bounce back under a Democratic administration, and while the deficit will continue to climb, Treasury and Fed policies will ensure low-interest rates and plenty of stimulus to keep the markets afloat (and ensure that are no places better than the markets to invest for a return).

Yesterday (8 January 2020) in the Reagan National Airport, Senator Lindsey Graham was yelled at and called a Traitor. While personally, I believe he is a traitor, the people yelling at him were the very Trumpists he has encouraged through his slavish support for their prophet, Donald Trump. Graham was an ‘old fashioned’ Republican and will attempt to survive in the Republican Party, and that will be difficult. Look for him to announce that this will be his last term. He will be rejected by the Patriots Party, and his only hope is that the file used to blackmail his has not fallen into the hands of Don Jr. If that happens, then he may be retiring sooner than the end of his term.

Mitt Romney will probably emerge as the real leader of the traditional Republican Party. This will leave little room for the rejectionists. They will (probably) be deprived of plumb committee seats, and will find themselves in the back rows. As the only Republican to vote against Trump in the first impeachment, he is the only traditional Republican with the moral standing to front and leads the party. McConnell is yesterday’s fish, and wrapped in newspaper will be thrown onto the trash. Graham, as mentioned, has no hope of regaining any position of authority. His apparent but not disclosed health issues from a few months ago may precipitate an early retirement. He will not be missed. There are other traditional Republicans, but few have been able to demonstrate an adequate level of independence from Trump.

The likes of Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley were already positioning themselves to take over the Trumpist mantle, and they will have no home other than the Patriots Party. They will find themselves in the same fight that they are in now, against each other but more importantly against Don Jr and the rest of the clan. With their political experience and ability to raise donor money, they will have a decided advantage over Don Jr, and they will use that advantage. Can they actually push the Trumps out of the Trumpist party? That remains to be seen, but it is their only constituency and their only hope.

The undereducated white male is a shrinking demographic. In addition, simple shame will shrink the ranks of those who will be putting Patriot Party flags on their front lawns. Finally, the funding required to run a major political party does not come from the poor or the collection plate, it comes from mega (not MAGA) donors who expect a return for their investment. There is little chance of anyone getting a meaningful return from this crowd.

President Harris will of course win in 2024, and by a landslide bigger than her predecessor Joe Biden, as she cries out to carry on his legacy to build a greater, freer, safer and more egalitarian nation; a more “perfect union”,mmmmqmf2q2den will be remembered as the President who brought America Back from the darkness of the Trump years. But at 78, the pressures of the presidency will eventually take their toll. He will not, for one reason or another, run in 2024. Will Harris already be President by then? That is a 50-50 bet that I won’t take. But she will be Madam President in January 2025.

6/1 and the End of Trump (and all who sail with him)

There is so much to write, and it is difficult to find a place to start. But I guess I can start with the end:

Trump signs and flags are going to disappear across Amerika today. Arrests will accelerate over the coming weeks. The Republican Party will now splinter and effectively will die as a political party of meaningful standing. Trump truly burned as much of it to the ground as he could. The question remaining is how much damage can he do between now and when he is removed, on the 20^th or before?

Georgia and the impact

It is probably right to start here. Both Senate seats in Georgia have been won by the Democrats, and with that, control of the Senate. Not a blank chequebook, but the ability to ensure that bills actually reach the floor and Senators are required to actually register their vote, so that their positions can actually be recorded, instead of the 2-year act of cowardice that has seen almost no bills reach the floor of the Senate.

Most importantly, Biden will now be able to nominate who he wants in his cabinet and on the bench. He will need to use this power quickly. The first proof is his announcement that Marrick Garland will be his pick for Attorney General, a pick that would have been either impossible or very difficult to get through a Senate with Republican control.

At a guess, news of the loss of Georgia probably contributed to the violence, as the Trumpist Cult could then clearly see that they have lost all; the House, the Senate and the White House. Their rage was stirred up by Trump. The knowledge that they would not even have part of the government to ‘protect them’ may well have added to their sense of betrayal. Of course, Trump (and Giuliani and others) claiming that there was massive voter fraud in the Georgia runoff could not have helped. But the news probably added to the frustration of the Trumpist Cultists.

Trump’s “Stolen Election” rally, and his cowardice

Trump held his rally in front of the White House, and Don Jr and Giuliani spoke before the main act, Trump himself. We watched Trump for the first hour, until the channels switched to the Capitol. Giuliani called for “trail by combat” to a bunch of wannabe revolutionaries. Don Jr incited, and Ivanka called the mob “American Patriots”.

Before the mob actually breached the Capitol, Charlie Savage of the Washington Post posted this in the comments next to the live streaming from the Senate floor:

 

Charlie Savage Washington Correspondent If any of the Capitol Police or staffers get hurt or worse because of the protesters outside the Capitol, Trump is going to face accusations that he incited a riot. At the end of his speech, Trump told his supporters on the Mall that Republicans have been too nice, like a boxer with his hands tied behind his back, and now needed to “fight much harder” against “bad people.” He told them to walk to the Capitol and “demand” that Congress “confront this egregious assault on our democracy” (that is, his loss to Biden), and kept exhorting them that “you have to show strength and you have to be strong” and “you will never take back our country with weakness.” (His defense will be that amid all that militancy, he also used the adverb “peacefully” once.) 2:13 PM ET

 

Yet after saying “We will march to Congress” he got into his motorcade to ride 200 meters back to the White House. Coward.

Storming the Capitol

The Trump “Save America March” broke up and marched to Congress, just as he told them to.

And when they arrived, the barriers were pushed aside, and protesters reached the bottom of the steps of the Capitol. There are questions about who opened the barriers. Regardless, crowds gathered at the bottom of the eastern steps to the Capitol, and crowds gathered at the western side and began to scale the scaffolding that has been put up for the inauguration. There was an inadequate police presence, of Capitol Police and DC Police, and there was no National Guard available. With everyone knowing that there was a high chance of unrest, where were they?

I understand that it might not have been wise to surround the Capitol with a wall of National Guard or police, as the optics of that would be terrible. I can hear it now “they needed the Army to protect them as they stole the election”. So from a public perception perspective, it makes plenty of sense to keep all the security services and military well out of sight. But they should have been on-call, waiting lined up and ready to roll if needed. This will go down as a major failure to prepare, or at worst a calculated attempt to allow rioters to gain entry and overturn the election (or attempt to).

Soon they were at the doors, and windows were broken and protesters climbing in. Soon enough, mobs running through the building. One person was shot trying to break into the Senate chamber. That person since died. I’ll not use her name. While she is an Air Force veteran, she has soiled the flag that she saluted, and has shit upon the Constitution that she swore to protect, from all enemies, foreign and domestic (herself being one of those enemies).

One of the most disturbing pictures, and it is difficult to narrow it down to just one, is the protester/rioter walking through the Statuary Hall carrying the Confederate flag. That is not “Stop the Steal”, that is “Overthrow the Republic”, and that is at Trump’s feet.

Eventually, the Guard and the Police arrived, and order was restored. People were forced to exit the building and leave the grounds. We now read that 50+ people were arrested. That number is a joke. Thousands violated the Capitol, and they are all on camera and video. And the really stupid one videoed themselves and took selfies as they committed riot and attempted to overthrow the government. There will be some short trials and long sentences.

Counting the vote resumed

Even after the Capitol has been stormed by Trumpist rioters, still, some Trumpist Senators continued to object. Remember these names. They are traitors to the nation and the Constitution. They have put a man above the Constitution. They have attempted to install a king. The “Breaking News” Alert from the New York Times summed it up perfectly:

 

Those voting against the results of the American election were: Senators Josh Hawley of Missouri, Ted Cruz of Texas, Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, Cindy Hyde-Smith of Mississippi, Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas and John Kennedy of Louisiana.

 

“Those voting against the results of the American election”.

At about 3:30am Washington time (or thereabouts) Mike Pence read the prepared remarks that included the count of Electors for Biden/Harris and for Trump/Pence. He then declared Biden to be the President-Elect who will be sworn in on the 20^th of January. It was over. Even Trump was forced to issue, through an advisor because his Twitter and Facebook and Instagram accounts have been locked for 12 – 24 hours, that there will be a peaceful transfer of power.

Orderly transfer

Of course, there hasn’t been a peaceful transfer of power. There has been a campaign of rejection of the results culminating in an attempted coup by the mob, stirred up by Trump and his followers. The transfer of power does not happen only on the 20^th, but is a process that starts, or should have started, in November after the election results are clear. A transition team from both the sitting administration and the incoming administration work together to ensure that there is continuity of government. To ensure that new appointees can start the new administration fully briefed on the current situation in the government agencies, the status of programs, and so that staff can get to know each other and who they will be working with. Policies can be discussed so that the incoming administration has an idea of the effort in front of them. National Security continuity is required, and incoming administration officials must know the security threats that the country faces, so that there can be no gap and no period of potential weakness that an enemy can exploit.

Failure to do this is not the peaceful transfer of power.

Trump has not signalled that there will be a orderly transfer of power, he has issued a surrender statement indicating that he recognises (or enough of his direct advisors and supporters recognise) that he will be replaced, that he did lose, and that his insurrection failed. He is now negotiating a peaceful and jail-free departure from the White House on the 20^th.

Make no mistake, Trump is being prised out of the White House with the threat of being physically dragged out. He tried, and failed, and will now depart in such a way as to try one last smear against Biden. But he also has almost no loyalists left.

His insurrection failed. But he will claim that he didn’t actually want that to happen; those well-meaning patriots got out of hand. Good people; the best people, just very enthusiastic people. He will continue to say that the election was stolen, until he is finally sued in civil court by a few states demanding damages. There certainly will be some people in the crowd who will join any suits against Trump for fraud, saying they believed the President when he lied to them, and did what the President wanted and told them to do. It will be an interesting set of lawsuits.

The rest of (Trump’s) Amerika

By now, the morning after, I fully expect that across Amerika Republicans and Trump supporters who are not crazy will be taking down their Trump banners. Trump 2020 bumper stickers will be scraped off. While they will remain conservative, and may still believe in a “deep state”, they also are Amerikans, and they know that inciting you followers to storm the Capitol and walk through the Statuary Hall with the Confederate flag is going beyond the acceptable.

In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and quite possibly in Texas, the Trump flags and signs will come down. In the Klan-South it may take a little longer, but in the VFWs (Veterans of Foreign Wars – equivalent to the RSAs in the Commonwealth) the Trump banners will come down. What happened was a direct assault on the Constitution, and that was something they all swore to defend.

Hopefully, the preachers will back-off as fast as they can. They know their constituencies better than anyone. They did not condemn Trump before, because they had good alms paying congregations who wanted to hear how Trump was stopping abortion and making Amerika strong, stopping Communists and keeping the, um, non-Amerikans (read: Blacks, Asians and Hispanics) from displacing good God-fearing Christian Amerikans.

There will be little overt repudiation, because the internal psychological backflips needed will not be possible. But Trump and Trumpism is done, other than for a fringe that will be there no matter what happens. They will no longer, however, be a political force.