So, Prediction Time

Watching what is happening, seeing the general revulsion at Trump’s incitement of insurrection and the actual storming of the Capitol, I think it is possible to make some extrapolations.

First, the highlights. The 2024 Presidential Campaign will be fought by four political parties; the Democrats, the Republicans, the American Patriots Party, and the Libertarians. The split of the vote will be something not far from 55%, 25%, 10%, and 10%. President Harris will be re-elected in an Electoral College landslide that will eclipse Joe Biden's, and Trump's before him.

Now a little of the thinking behind this.

1. The Republican Party is dead as we know it. It can no longer hold the wide range of constituents, and the Trumpists will split to become a new party, the American Patriots Party. The rump Republican Party will be made up of long-term fiscal and social conservatives, especially the Constitutionalists. They will continue to control strong constituencies in the South and in some rural states. Religious conservatives will have a difficult time deciding where they will land, and many will stay with the Party that is conservative without being crazy. There are conservative Christians who have actually read the bible (well, the New Testament anyway) and cannot or will not be able to continue to support Trump and his anti-Christian behaviours.
2. The American Patriots Party will come into being in the first six months of 2021, and will be the Trumpist Party in all but name. Basically, this will be the White Supremacist party, and the home for QAnon and other conspiracy theorists. The party will never command a significant share of the vote. It will win a few seats in the mid-terms, but will find itself starved for money and influence in a congress that will still be distancing itself from Trump and his ilk. Their platforms will be and remain secessionist and anti “Deep State” and with Donald Trump Jr as the head of the party, they will perpetuate a “stab in the back” myth, knowing full well that they are stealing that from the early Nazi Party. There will be splinter groups even from this, as we should expect an Amerikan Eugène Terre'Blanche, with a similar end.
3. The Libertarian Party will be a big winner from the end of the Republican Party as we know it. The moderately educated and modestly affluent conservative but anti-government Republicans will look for a new home. Seeing their previous hope (small government, high tax-cut Republican congressmen and senators) become more ‘mainstream’ conservative and fiscally responsible, even voting for higher taxes to fund the deficit and military (but nothing else), they will look for a new home. They will be as disgusted by the American “Patriots” as most of Amerika, and so will find solace in the arms of the Libertarian Party.
4. This leaves us with the Democratic Party. As the party in power they will have a natural advantage, and simply introducing some calm will work to their advantage. Under Democrats the pandemic will be defeated and the nation will mourn. There will be, of course, plenty of Democrats who will ensure that the message is clear: under Trump, this was allowed to happen with no consideration for people, while under the Democrats the pandemic was brought to heel, and the nation healed. The economy will bounce back under a Democratic administration, and while the deficit will continue to climb, Treasury and Fed policies will ensure low-interest rates and plenty of stimulus to keep the markets afloat (and ensure that are no places better than the markets to invest for a return).

Yesterday (8 January 2020) in the Reagan National Airport, Senator Lindsey Graham was yelled at and called a Traitor. While personally, I believe he is a traitor, the people yelling at him were the very Trumpists he has encouraged through his slavish support for their prophet, Donald Trump. Graham was an ‘old fashioned’ Republican and will attempt to survive in the Republican Party, and that will be difficult. Look for him to announce that this will be his last term. He will be rejected by the Patriots Party, and his only hope is that the file used to blackmail his has not fallen into the hands of Don Jr. If that happens, then he may be retiring sooner than the end of his term.

Mitt Romney will probably emerge as the real leader of the traditional Republican Party. This will leave little room for the rejectionists. They will (probably) be deprived of plumb committee seats, and will find themselves in the back rows. As the only Republican to vote against Trump in the first impeachment, he is the only traditional Republican with the moral standing to front and leads the party. McConnell is yesterday’s fish, and wrapped in newspaper will be thrown onto the trash. Graham, as mentioned, has no hope of regaining any position of authority. His apparent but not disclosed health issues from a few months ago may precipitate an early retirement. He will not be missed. There are other traditional Republicans, but few have been able to demonstrate an adequate level of independence from Trump.

The likes of Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley were already positioning themselves to take over the Trumpist mantle, and they will have no home other than the Patriots Party. They will find themselves in the same fight that they are in now, against each other but more importantly against Don Jr and the rest of the clan. With their political experience and ability to raise donor money, they will have a decided advantage over Don Jr, and they will use that advantage. Can they actually push the Trumps out of the Trumpist party? That remains to be seen, but it is their only constituency and their only hope.

The undereducated white male is a shrinking demographic. In addition, simple shame will shrink the ranks of those who will be putting Patriot Party flags on their front lawns. Finally, the funding required to run a major political party does not come from the poor or the collection plate, it comes from mega (not MAGA) donors who expect a return for their investment. There is little chance of anyone getting a meaningful return from this crowd.

President Harris will of course win in 2024, and by a landslide bigger than her predecessor Joe Biden, as she cries out to carry on his legacy to build a greater, freer, safer and more egalitarian nation; a more “perfect union”,mmmmqmf2q2den will be remembered as the President who brought America Back from the darkness of the Trump years. But at 78, the pressures of the presidency will eventually take their toll. He will not, for one reason or another, run in 2024. Will Harris already be President by then? That is a 50-50 bet that I won’t take. But she will be Madam President in January 2025.