If Covid-19 was relased from a lab...

The American government’s response to Covid-19 was a disaster, and if the “Lab Leak” theory was actually believed, then the response bordered on the criminally negligent. If the leak was intentional, the response was treasonous.

The “Lab Leak” conspiracy theory persists, and as there is no “proven” release vector, and the Chinese government has not been as open as it could have been, even I am forced to accept that it is a possibility. 

Of course, there are basically five potential paths here that the ‘release’ of Covid-19 could have followed:

1. A completely natural transmission between species in the wild (or int eh wet-market, etc).
2. An accidental release from a lab.
3. An intentional release from a lab.
4. Modification of the virus in the lab and accidental release.
5. Modification of the virus in the lab and intentional release.

The first two are effectively the same, as the release is of the native virus into the population, and the immediate source is irrelevant. 

The third and fifth are most worrying, as it implies the intention, but does not then confirm that it was something acceptable to the Chines government. If it was acceptable or done at the direction of the Chines government, then it was an act of war. Number four is a worry because it implies that the released virus could be more dangerous than the native version.

But, and here is the important point, if the US government has any evidence or reason to suspect that the release of Covid-19 came from numbers 3, 4 or 5, then the failure to effectively respond is tantamount to abandoning the American people. A vigorous response was needed, starting with stating clearly to the American (and world) people that a dangerous virus was released, that medical professionals and scientists were analysing it and determining the best way to protect yourself from exposure, and what to do in the case of exposure.

To downplay something potentially catastrophic was criminal. And 600,000, so far, Americans have died for that criminal neglect and deceit.

If the US government (and President Trump in particular) actually believed that the release was intentional and potentially of a modified virus, the response should have been fundamentally different.

An intentional release of a deadly virus would be an act of war, if it was aimed at decimating an adversary's population and economy. The response would need to be a national defence response, with the objective of halting the spread of the virus and protecting critical national infrastructure and command and control structures. In a shooting war, you do not tell your population that there is no problem and that you should not bother to support a national effort to respond. 

The Defence Production Act would be invoked almost immediately to produce the materials required to protect the population and prepare armed forces to support civilian efforts, and respond against an enemy if needed. 

Roosevelt did not tell America to carry on as before after Pearl Harbour, and Kennedy certainly did not mince words during the Missile Crisis. After 9/11, George Bush was famous for (not) saying “My fellow Americans, something bad happened in New York, and now Donald Trump has the tallest building, But don’t worry, very few people were killed (bigger numbers would make me look bad), and this will not impact you, so you can ignore it as a liberal plot to make us look bad”.

If (a big if) Trump and his cronies actually believed that the release was intentional (as a modified or natural virus) then basically that is what he has said. “We might be under attack, but as it will make me look bad, I’m telling you to ignore it”. 

Clearly, if scenario number five is the truth, and if there was any evidence to support that scenario, then the US would be at war with China. If an adversary were to engineer a virus and then intentionally release it (presumably after having developed some mechanism to reduce the impact on their own population, then that would represent a biological warfare attack. The fact that something is banned international treaty certainly provides no comfort or confidence that it is not or will not be done.

Therefore, if China did bio-engineer Covid-19, and did intentionally release the virus, then Trump’s failure to put the US on a war footing, to mobilise the entire federal government to the protection of the American people and allies, would be an unprecedented dereliction of duty. Furthermore, if the US intelligence community actually believed that to the case, then such information would have been shared with allies, to protect their people and to solidify an alliance against the perpetrator of a biowarfare assault on the world.

Yet none of this happened. Why?

Is Trump the greatest traitor in American history? Has he sold out the US to Putin and Xi? Or, more likely, is he simply the venal narcissist that he appears to be, surrounded by sycophants too afraid to disagree with him?

Any of those options are dangerous. Sure, he’s gone. But all those sycophants are still there, still rejecting facts, still hypothesising without basis, all to distract from his absolutely disastrous response. And they must distract, or the harsh light will fall upon them, and on their culpability in allowing 600,000 of their fellow citizens to die, so far.

Other countries reacted quickly, locked down, but kept the lights on. Leaders around the world listened to the scientists, tracked cases, isolated patients, quarantined individuals and cities. Took the hard decisions that leaders are expected to make.

Wonderful News: Republicans reject the 6/1 Commission

In the US Senate Republicans have blocked a bi-partisan investigation into the 6/1 insurrection. While some people are moaning and whining about the Republicans rejection of the Commission, I think this is great news. The Commission legislation as drafted should have been the Republicans dream commission. The bi-partisan agreement required agreement on which witnesses to call, who would get immunity, etc. The Republicans could have used that as an indefinite stall and pushed any meaningful results beyond the reporting date of the Commission. 

Republican leadership would have used the Commission to shield Republican lawmakers who are directly complicit in the insurrection, and would have hamstrung the Department of Justice, the FBI and other investigative agencies from doing their job. Even state-level investigations could have been impaired by Republican Senators and the Commission’s granting of selective immunity in exchange for testimony in front of the Commission, thus freeing these people from punishment or even a requirement to testify at the state level.

So not having those constraints on any Commission will be an excellent result.

Now the House Democrats can form their own Committee under their rules, and can compel anyone they want to testify, including former President Trump. Certainly, those who will implicate members of congress will be called, and will be required to testify under oath. Some may even be offered immunity for their testimony that directly accuses, not implicates, members of congress.

It is inconceivable that the invasion of the Capital on the 6th of January did not have support from and potentially direct collusion with some Republican members of the House or Senate. They need to be exposed, and they need to be charged. 

A Commission comprising, in part, a complicit subset of insurrectionists, with the ability to stop or delay testimony by those who will implicate them, is no Commission worth empowering.  

For example, Jim Jordan (“Gym” to me for his covering up the sexual abuse scandal when he was an assistant coach and the head coach was abusing wrestling students, who came to Gym for help, and who he turned away) is against the Commission. Why? Because he is a potential witness.

The Washington Post begins their article: “Several Republicans who oppose creating a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol are more than lawmakers making a public policy decision — they are potential witnesses to what former president Donald Trump and his aides were saying and doing as the mob laid siege.”

Even the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) would be a potential witness, to confirm the contents of his calls with Trump trying to get help, and being rebuffed by Trump.

The craven sycophants in Congress are running scared, and will until Trump is convicted in a court, or until individual congress members are convicted. And soon enough it will begin. And when they are charged, they will call it lies, of course, and their bases will, partially, either believe them or at least believe the lie that any alternative will be worse.

And enough will not believe them, and will stay home at the next election, if they are still in office and not in jail. But those who stay home will make the difference.

At the same time that the Democrat House of Representatives establishes their own Commission or Committee, the Department of Justice will be continuing its multiple cases against a wide range of people. This cannot be stopped by the Republicans, even though they will attempt to deride it as a partisan branch of government under the control of the Democrats. Logically this should be laughed at, as it will be pointed out that this is an acknowledgement that the DoJ under Trump was a politically partisan brand of government, but Republicans will spin that lie anyway. They can do that knowing that their acolytes either are too stupid to see what they’ve just done, or because they are too willing to believe that the “deep state” is Democrat and will be against anything that Republicans attempt to do.

Meanwhile, the little guys, and even the big-little guys, will begin to sing. They are already, we just are not seeing it yet. Enough of them were pulled into rooms and had the bright lights shown in their faces, with or without lawyers present. We won’t hear about it from the lawyers, since anything that they will be willing to say, grassing up their friends and militia-mates in order to stay out of jail will be with the approval of their lawyers to reduce their sentences. Not until the court cases. And then we will see the reports of who spoke with which members of Congress before the fateful day. Who knew what, and who encouraged what actions.

Because the little guys know they are going to jail unless they do deals. And some of them will be going to jail for a long time. Those that will only be in line for a short stint inside will also sing. This I said months ago, and I’m still confident it will happen.

In fact, when the Democratic majority in the House starts holding their own hearings, the little guys will be lining up to testify in exchange for some form of limited immunity. 

Meanwhile, at the bigger picture level, patience is the game. My main predictions from the 9th of January still hold: “First, the highlights. The 2024 Presidential Campaign will be fought by four political parties; the Democrats, the Republicans, the American Patriots Party, and the Libertarians. The split of the vote will be something not far from 55%, 25%, 10%, and 10%. President Harris will be re-elected in an Electoral College landslide that will eclipse Joe Biden's, and Trump's before him.” 

But it remains a waiting game. Mostly just waiting for the Republicans to continue to destroy themselves, and to leave traditional Republicans with no play to go, and no party to follow. The fiscally conservative, national defence and low tax voter will continue to watch the current Republicans spout treasonous crap while they lick Trump's boots (or wingtip shoes anyway). Trump will, at some point, have to dip into the $400 million that he scammed from people to pay to support his minions, even though supporting ‘down ticket’ (anything below himself) is not his style.

So with nowhere to go in their own party, they will either go to the Libertarians, or stay home. 

Ultimately, the rejection of the Commission by the Republicans was a self-defeating attempt to delay the inevitable, and I am thrilled.