25 November 2020

The DOW and Pandemic disconnect

The DOW Industrial Average stock index reached 30,000 yesterday, a new record high. Trump claims credit, of course. 

The markets are a good forward-looking indicator of the economy (or they were) and as such, any immediate movement is a reflection of near to mid-range expectations, and trends provide a forward-looking expectation of medium to longer-term economic performance. A rising market used to indicate an expectation of a generally growing economy.

And yet we know that the US economy is in deep trouble. Pandemic trouble coupled with long-term small to medium-sized business trouble. The promised V-shaped recovery is petering out and will return to a more 'normal' recovery. Wall Street and Main Street have rarely been so out of sync.

So why the jump to record-level valuations?

Of course, the stimulus that has been and continues to be pumped into the markets to avoid a crash decoupled Wall Street from Main Street some time ago. So the significant jumps over the past two weeks can and should be seen as market (and therefore the investing class) expectations that there will be greater certainty under a Biden administration, and therefore medium to longer-term plans can be made, and investment programmes confirmed.

It begs the question of why, with the need for ongoing stimulus and 8%-10% federal budget deficits, the markets think the future is so bright. 

The answer is that the US economy has passed the point of being able to fix its systemic debt problem, and any attempt to do so will simply destroy the markets, killing large and medium-sized companies (the small companies are barely holding on already) and that will wipe out any hope of an employment recovery, plunging the US into a multi-year depression. Therefore with an adult in the White House, and an economic team that is willing to tell him hard truths, the markets are betting that the stimulus will keep on rolling.

It begs the question of where the markets would be today without the constant meddling-by-tweet and bogus trade wars of the past four years? 

Still the pandemic continues to build. 

There can be no doubt, and history will declare (and so will any who are looking at this even now and into the coming year) that Trump’s personal response and the craven enablers in the Republican party, and directly contributed to a disaster in the US. 

Meanwhile, US Covid-19 deaths are at a seven-day moving average of 1640 deaths, a number that was last seen on May 12th (as a seven-day moving average). The first time that the rate was that high was as the pandemic was building force (as it is again) on April 7th. There were 34 days between the first time the average was above 1650 and the first time is dropped below 1650. 

If those numbers provided a pattern and an expectation for now, then we will not see the numbers reach this level again for another month. Certainly the numbers could already have peaked, but that is not what the seven-day moving average is telling up. With up/high days and lower/dropping days, the seven-day moving average continues to climb.

The same is happening with new cases. The seven-day average is still rising, at 176,000, even though there are occasional ‘down’ days, usually at the weekends. The three-day average is on another downward wave, but the latest number are not encouraging. Hospitals are becoming overloaded again, and National Guard troops are being called in to deal with the numbers of corpses in Texas.

 

Across the country, the cases are still growing and growing fast. And we are being warned that the coming winter will make matters even worse, with people being cramped inside, and when they go to places where others are or have been, the need to retain the heat will necessitate recycled warm air, increasing the risk of contagion. So for the US, there is little hope that the next weeks will see any actual peak in cases, and certainly little hope that there will be any sustained drop in the number of new cases. Unless, of course, Trump is able to continue to reduce the total number of tests being performed, and thus artificially holding down the number of cases.

Yes, still there is no meaningful response from the Republicans.

All they can do is look on now, still afraid of Trump and his ability, they believe, to destroy their political futures, by calling them out as disloyal. Even now. 

So Amerika has to wait, and hope that Biden and his team will be ready on day-one to implement effective measures. Certainly, the roll-out of vaccines will already be underway before Christmas, but the general population will not be seeing vaccinations until mid to late-January. First will be the front-line workers in healthcare, and then their families, and then the elderly, and then those at most risk. Only after those have been vaccinated will the general population be able to be vaccinated. That will probably not happen until February or later, depending on how fast the Biden team can push, or how much of their programme can start before he is sworn in. (By stealth of course, because Trump will “burn it down” if he sees any tangible support for Biden that is actually is able to interrupt).

Here in Greece things seem to be moving in the other direction, though it will take another week before we can have any confidence. 

The bad news is that the seven-day moving average number of deaths continues to rise, and is over 80. There was a high last week of over 100 deaths in a day. The hospitals are overwhelmed, and in Thessaloniki and the north, 99% of ICU beds are occupied. The military is building a field hospital on the grounds of the Military Hospital here in Thessaloniki, providing an additional 50 (ICU?) beds at least.

Two private clinics have been requisitioned, adding 200 beds to the total available in the public system in Thessaloniki. Hopefully, these will be enough, but I very much doubt it with the steep rise in cases through November. 

Thessaloniki is the epicentre, with over 600 new cases yesterday, reaching more than 14,500 cases in Thessaloniki in total, in November only.

Characteristic of the rapid growth of the virus is the fact that in October - the month in which the spread of the coronavirus had already begun - Thessaloniki had recorded 4,027 cases while in September it had only… 422 cases, a number that is now exceeded daily by the city. In less than two months, Thessaloniki jumped from 422 cases to 14,517, proving the aggression of the new virus. It is noted that in total, since the beginning of the pandemic at the end of February in Thessaloniki, 20,334 cases have been recorded.

https://www.typosthes.gr/ygeia-epistimi/covid-19/234679_koronoios-paramenei-ypo-piesi-me-607-nea-kroysmata-i-thessaloniki

Across Greece, the numbers of new cases are coming down, which if a good thing to see. However, this may be illusory for the same reason as the US, we are entering ‘real’ winter. The article also said that the optimum temperature for the virus is 8 – 10 degrees Celsius (of 48 – 50 Fahrenheit). 

If there is good news it is that the seven-day moving average of new cases is heading downward. Not much yet, but definitely, a peak, if only a week old. We will need much more time to see that it is a real peak and fall, which will be problematic with the winter conditions. But the lockdown here is in its third week, and that is about the time it takes for the asymptomatic contagious cases to spread as far as they can, then begin to die off. After all, if the virus cannot reach someone, then it cannot infect them.


So while cases continue to rise rapidly, the speed of rise has slowed down a little. But the numbers are still increasing, and that continues to drive the need for more beds.

The latest news this morning is that we will be in lockdown at least until December 6th, which is another two weeks. I would not be upset if it were another week after that, to really limit the potential spread. 

The spread cannot be halted by the lockdown; we still need to buy food and go and feed the stray cats. And we are not alone. The entire city must have some limited interactions, even if more limited than ours. And our interactions are limited. We do not move more than about 100 meters from the building, and even then we enter any building with caution, checking that there are not many people inside and that there is plenty of ventilation via open window and doors. The pet-shop is a good example. The front door is open all the time, and upstairs there is a pet grooming station with its window open. Hopefully, this is providing enough airflow to reduce the risk of spread. 

And masks are obligatory, and for the most part, are now being worn property. For the most part. There are still too many people who think that they cannot speak through a mask, so pull the mask down to talk, and then usually to talk too loudly.

But lockdowns work, and this one is already reaping some rewards in peaking infections. I hope. 


23 November 2020

Coup or Grace?

Monday of Thanksgiving week.

In the US, one of the Trump lawyers has been fired, after pushing a conspiracy theory that the maker of the software provider for the vote counting was somehow in cahoots with Chavez of Venezuela, who died over a decade ago. This seems to have been too much even for Giuliani, who is trying to push ‘reputable’ conspiracy theories such as a massive plot to commit voter fraud, stuff ballot boxes, and ignore votes for Trump, or that individuals errors in counties should be adequate justification for throwing out all the votes in those counties.

They are melting down, and it is ugly to watch.

We also have seen almost nothing of Pence, Barr or Pompeo, or any of the other enablers of Trump. 

It makes me think that either they are hiding to avoid being smeared (too late) or there is something brewing. I have a hard time thinking what it is, though civil unrest on a massive scale remains possible. That would then require the intervention of Federal law enforcement (as in Portland earlier in the year) but with the goal of intimidating states to select Electors that will vote for Trump. I have no idea what it will take. There may even be a simple attempt to stop some states from ending Electors at all, and in doing so, put the election into the House of Representatives.

Too much quiet from the White House is scary at a time like this. I don’t actually think that Trump and his minions are simply watching TV and playing golf. That is not plausible. Hiding from what’s coming is possible, but unlikely.

So what the hell is going on?

A Thanksgiving-Day Coup?

If Trump calls on the Pentagon to send troops to a city, any city, will the generals refuse? If he (or his installed and presumably loyal new [acting] Secretary of Defence) issues a completely legal order, then a borderline order, and then an outright illegal order, at what stage will the generals say “no”?

Will there be an attack on Amerika, say a terrorist attack or other false flag attacks that gives Trump his opportunity to do what Giuliani tried to do after 9/11; delay completion of the election process?

Will he start a war on the way out? But how can he use that to seize power? It will need to be a war in which he can, quickly, smear key members of the Biden camp as traitors and lock them up. Who would let him get away with it?

Will he use the Supreme Court to support the rejection of some ballots in Pennsylvania, and use that as an excuse to exclude all ballots in Atlanta or in a state such as Wisconsin? 

I don’t know, but I cannot believe that he is simply sitting there doing nothing.

----------------

Equally, is it possible that he has just “given up”? That he is simply sitting in the White House waiting for the final call that all options have been exhausted. Sitting in the bunker, so to speak. 

He lost the popular vote twice in a row. The first time the distribution of Electors as defined by the Constitution favoured him. This time that same distribution worked against him. He also lost the popular vote by a greater margin this time. He won more votes in total than he did in 2016, but far more people voted, and the votes were against him. 

So is he simply waiting, playing golf, and preparing to go into internal or external exile, picking the safest place to go to avoid extradition, if it comes to that? And preparing himself for a continuation of the Trump Survival Program from before 2016 – stall in the courts, sue anyone who says anything against him, and keep appealing, all the while looking for a deal that will keep him out of jail and keep most of his assets intact. 

Is he right now negotiating deferrals and changes to the loans that he owes? Is he looking at how to kick-start a media empire to crush Fox?

As a president, he has been a complete failure, with his only wins being the provision of tax cuts for the wealthy and destruction of the social and environmental protections that have taken so many years to implement. 

But will he go quietly?

The Washington Post reports: “Sarah Matthews, a White House spokeswoman, said the president is “hard at work fulfilling the promises he made to the American people and building on his unprecedented accomplishments as he works to rebuild our economy, lower drug costs, end the endless foreign wars by bringing our troops home, and deliver on his ambitious goal to have a safe and effective covid-19 vaccine before the end of the year.””

Not only is all of that bullshit, but everyone seems to know that it is bullshit. Each and every one of the claims in that paragraph is false, and he has accomplished none of them, nor will he. Nor could he even if re-elected.

Yet still, his minions continue to lie for him, afraid of the end of their own careers and hopes if they cross him. They are linked to him, and their only hope is for a successor Trumpist to be identified, and for that successor to recognise their ability to be loyal no matter what.

Meanwhile, he is silent, and that still scares me.


13 November 2020

The Interregnum

There is so much going on, while at the same time it seems ‘quiet’; the interregnum between the almost-dead but not quite king, and the usurper waiting for the body to be declared cold.

The party of the king knows full well that its time is up, for now. They also do not expect the king to survive exile. So the ‘game’ being played now is to continue to demonstrate ‘loyalty’ to the king so that he does not have a reason to disown any individual. That is happening, to those that he thought were either disloyal or inadequately obsequies.

The sons (and daughter) of the king can be disposed of later, and that is lurking in the minds of those that are positioning themselves to take the mantle. None know how long it will take, but the king is finished. Armies are gathering that will sweep him away, and their own RINOs are deserting the flag in droves. Exile awaits. But where? And how soon? How to manage the process of going into exile without appearing to be routed.

But the king retains a huge following in the peasantry. They will be loyal. As long as you tell them that they are better than the other peasants, they will follow. As long as you protect anyone who kills those that are (God’s own preachers reinforce this) lesser people, then all is good. Those non-white, those educated, those working, those simply not like them but wanting to build better lives; they are the threat. And the under-educated whites will rally to the cause of anyone who will ‘protect’ them. If everyone’s life become marginally better, or even a little worse, as long as it is the others that suffer more, all is good. And if the others progress in any way, then it was not through work, not through education, and not through any effort, they succeeded only because the ‘system’ supported them, smoothed their path, gave to them.

And the peasantry is easy to lead. Just keep reminding them that God loves them alone, and therefore all sins are forgiven. All. That includes the (not-sin) of arming themselves to the teeth to protect the constitution, a document 95% of them have never read, do not understand, and couldn’t really care less about – except that part that says that a black man counts as only 2/3 of a white man.

The other side is gathering, and are simply waiting for the coronation. That will come, but for now, it is important to appear as the king-in-waiting, and not to like another wanna-be princeling. And it is working. The unasked, and unanswered question is what retribution will be visited upon those who stayed loyal to the old king (not that the new king is a young man, so exactly the same games are being played on that side).

Some, like me, hope there will be public beheadings, and that the king’s children will be stripped of everything, loaded into an oxcart, and paraded to the guillotine. They deserve it. That won’t happen of course, because only the mob can actually convict the children. Regicide is one thing, murder of the entire family is Ottoman.

But the incoming king’s party is looking at how much they can extract from the current king’s adherents, and how they can break his party fully.

Of the remaining loyalists, the toadies such as Cruz and Jordan, and the newcomers like Getz, are all continuing their spouting of loyalties, rallying the fodder for one last battle. Lindsey Graham is playing the dog who knows just how hard he will be kicked if he doesn’t play the game, bark in the right direction, and lick his master’s boot. All see it. All are revolted by it. All, that is, except for his own limited power base. He is someone upon whom history will not look favourably, if he is more than a footnote as the demonstration of the pandering sycophant that he is.

Meanwhile, plague ravishes the land, and the king and the king’s men ignore it, blame the opposition. No compassion, no national grieving, no acknowledgement at all. They will pay for that also. A year from now, when there is a national memorial service, I want them excluded. Let them stand in the rain, just as they happily are allowing the virus to rain on their followers. They are evil people.

And that is the core of Amerika today. A land possessed by evil, in the middle of an interregnum in which the evil king is looking for a safe exile from which to plot a return. Meanwhile, his toadies and sycophants manoeuvre to avoid any appearance of being ready to do a deal with the king-in-waiting, and hoping for one more flicker of approbation from the king. They also know that the king, while plotting a return, will die in exile. How to handle that?

Loyalty, of course. Because only one of his minions will be able to claim the mantle of the True-Trumpist. So watch them fight each other, tearing the Trumpist party apart, slandering each other. All but one, of course. Graham will not join the fight. He is not a leader. He has the power of a Hugh Despenser, able while being rogered by the king, to still whisper to the king who should go to the gallows. But he will never be king. He is waiting to see who the king hands the file containing all that he has been blackmailed with. And he will then transfer his loyalty, and his troops, to that person.

The problem is the kingdom. It is still divided between the overthrown king and the new king. And civil war remains highly possible. It would be short-lived. The Army, the real one, is transferring its loyalty to the new king already, or at least preparing to do so smoothly. And the Army will crush anyone silly enough to declare a real rebellion. Peasants do not perform very well against mounted knights. And while too many of the old king’s mob might know how to pull a longbow, not one of them has the discipline to stand up an army that can even begin to match the real one.

The question still remains, however, what will the incoming king’s party do, and how will they undo the damage done to the kingdom.

International relations have been destroyed. No one trusts Amerika any longer. An alliance with them is good for four, maybe six, maybe 50 years. Or maybe only four. Can they be trusted to play their part in the world? That remains to be seen. What has become very clear is that almost half of Amerika truly does not care about anything or anyone outside of Amerika. And their God, speaking through their preachers, tells them that they do not need to care about others.

Amerika will re-join the Paris Climate Accord, but will not have a real seat at the head table. They will be invited to the table, and leaders will look approvingly on the words of the new king or his emissaries. But this time they will wait to see action and money, not words. Amerika’s word is no longer worth the noise its utterance makes.

The real question is how much pain is the new party willing to impose in order to stamp out the Trumpists? Too little I fear. And this will allow the Trumpists to work in the shadows to rebuild, and in two years, they will roar back, emasculating the new king, and plunging Amerika back into a period of a failed government unable to make any real progress.

To actually fix Amerika will require the parking of mercy at the door for a while. QAnon must be hunted down, exposed. There are already murmurs that QAnon is a Russian operation. If so, then that should also be exposed and people brought to court.

The “Proud Boys” and other neo-fascist groups need to be disbanded, and their guns taken from them. Their acts of intimidation should be tried in court for what they are, acts of intimidation. Push them back underground where they belong. Let former membership (and certainly current membership) be a mark that makes them unemployable.

Black Lives Matter. And the police must have their “Qualified Immunity” removed. This can only be done by the central government, and that will require strong action. Unpalatable action. Police must not be allowed to kill black people with impunity. I’ve seen calls for the turning off of a body-cam being a sackable offence. I support that. But that is only the beginning. Don’t “defund” the police, but force them to allocate their funding differently. If the police have taken over as the social workers of last resort, then make them fulfil that role. They are funded certainly.

There is so much to fix, and I fear that Amerika, or the Amerika of the new king’s party, does not have the stomach for what it must do. Mercy can be a weakness, and in Amerika today, I fear that weakness will be turned against the rest.

But we are in the interregnum. There is much yet to do. Positions are begin taken. The old king’s loyalists are playing survival games. They all know that their game now is to survive exile and either take the mantle from the dying hands of Trump (fuck his family, they will be crucified and used as martyrs for the newly anointed) or to identify who will seize the mantle and demonstrate alliance to that new Trumpist.

It is going to be much less messy than it could be, or that it should be.