The problem with Bluffing

There's a problem with bluffing in that eventually, you're going to be called, and you're going to have to show your deck. We're now hearing that trump's threats to retake the Panama Canal are in effect a bluff to try and weaken China's influence in Central and Latin America. That's great if the bluff works. But China has invested so much in Central and Latin America that they're not simply going to pull out even if Trump has an excellent relationship with Xi.  

  

And that means that at some stage, someone is going to call Trump's bluff. Does this mean that he has to invade and take over Greenland? Does this mean he has to invade and take the canal? 

  

Which of these will he have to do to prove he's not bluffing?  

  

Canada?  

  

Much of the Amerikan economy and, therefore, Amerikan society is contingent upon existing global trade routes and global trade relationships. We saw in the pandemic the impact of supply chain constraints caused by the shutdown of ports. That supply chain constraint resulted in multi-year high inflation in the United States, partly contributing to Donald Trump's victory.  

  

Adding additional costs through tariffs and inflation will return very rapidly to the Amerikan economy. Creating massive supply chain problems would result from an invasion of Panama to take the Panama Canal. There's very little likelihood that the Amerikans could take the canal and secure it without being taken out of commission by the Panamanians for a significant period of time. And by a significant period of time, we're probably talking one to three years.  

  

So the potential economic dislocation and negative impact on the Amerikan economy from the combination of tariffs and the shutting of the Panama Canal would be crippling for the Amerikan economy as it currently functions. It is a delicate but very robust system as long as particular levers and legs of that economic system are not damaged.  

  

Repeat the supply chain problems of the pandemic, and the economy will collapse again. 

  

And, of course, it's doubtful that the Amerikan military could actually take the Panama Canal and keep it functioning. The Panamanian government and the Panamanian military, not to mention the Panamanian people, would simply not allow that to happen and would probably rather destroy pieces of the canal than allow the Amerikans to conquer it and retain control for any period of time.  

  

And invasions don't happen overnight. President Trump doesn't wake up one morning and say, “I want you Mr military to invade Panama next week”.  

  

Until we see the Amerikan military actually begin preparations foreign invasion of one of those three then his bluff will be treated as exactly what it is, a bluff. However, the US military probably does not have the capability to invade Canada, Greenland, and Panama, certainly not at the same time. Trump might want his military to do so, and might order them to be ready to do so, but they would not be able to do so effectively.  

  

Panama would be relatively easy, and by that, I mean relatively only. In 1989, the Amerikans invaded Panama, but they had the advantage of having military bases in the Canal Zone that they could use to expand from. Any invasion at this time would have to be staged from someplace other than Panama itself. It is very unlikely that Costa Rica or Colombia would allow the hosting of Amerikan forces for an invasion. That means an airborne and navy assault directly into Panama itself. 

  

The Amerikan military took over 6 months of build up in Saudi Arabia for both the liberation of Kuwait and then later the invasion of Iraq. That was 6 months building and populating bases on the ground from which troops could jump off directly into enemy occupied territory. An invasion of Panama would require a landing securing a beach and bringing in enough forces then to create a bridgehead that would be used then to advance and take over the rest of the country. OR at least, to take over those bits of the country at the canal so cologne in the north and Panama city in the south. To do that you're invading and taking the two major population centres of the country.  

  

By the time you've managed to get forces ashore and move them to the canal to secure the canal itself in the canal infrastructure, you've probably lost a functioning in working canal. The Panamanian forces will have sabotaged anything that the Amerikans are attempting to gain. That leaves the canal non-functional which effectively means all shipping from the Amerikan East coast or to the Amerikan east coast from Asia has to go around Cape horn. That was the entire purpose of the Panama Canal was to cut out that dangerous and very long journey.  

  

Could the Amerikans invade with a purely airborne exercise landing troops airborne troops to take the control points at both ends of the canal? Certainly they could. But that would be a very difficult operation. And would be fraught with danger and risk. There's then the issue of once the specific targets have been taken and secured, actually getting enough forces onshore to create a safe corridor of control. The United States does not have the forces required to create a safe corridor that will allow them to operate through and around Colon and through and around Panama City. 

  

As the Panamanian president pointed out in response to Trump, an invasion of Panama would also result in a massive influx of additional migrants heading towards the Amerikan border. Currently, the Darien Gap between Columbia and Panama is a route for illegal immigrants and is, in some small part, controlled and managed by the Panamanian government. 

  

At the other end of Panama there's the border with Costa Rica which while controlled by both countries is quite porous. Are the Amerikans going to invade and take all of Panama up to an including the border with Costa Rica to stop the migration? I very much doubt that they would care. After all anyone who makes it all the way to the United States will just be rounded up, put into an internment camp, and deported by Trump and his minions. 

Bluffing only works if the other side(s) don't know you are bluffing. They know that Trump is bluffing, and therefore, there is little actual risk. And if he is not bluffing, the price to Amerika will be far too high.