It is incredible to me that the US stock markets seem to be at or even above their all time highs. With the tariffs, the uncertainty, and the (now coming through) poor jobs numbers, all suggestive of a US economy that is in trouble, or will be heading deeper into trouble over the coming months, the markets should be reflecting that with negative sentiment and behaviours. They haven’t been.
The ‘secret’ seems to be that if we look at the US in isolation (certainly something this administration believes we should do, and that MAGA Amerika seems unable to see past), the markets seem to be saying that everything will be just fine.
But the markets are lying, at least if you look beyond the US of Amerika.
Three charts:
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These three are from the WSJ online on 9 September 2025 and show the movements of the Dow, the Euro, and the British Pound over the past year.
On 20 January 2025, the Dow was at 44,000. Today it is 46,000, a roughly 4% gain over almost nine months. Not a good return, but at least it is above the debacle of 37,700 immediately after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements (+17% fall).
In the same period, the Euro and the Pound have appreciated by 13%, and the Pound by 12%.
The US dollar is in the toilet, and has had one of its worst years ever,
This means that in real terms against the Euro and the Pound, the US stock market has lost value, as should be predictable by Trump’s policies and blunders.
Now we simply need to wait for it to show up in 'real' numbers (provided as estimated by non-US government agencies), and then in the markets. After all, they aren't lying; they just aren't telling the whole story.
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