22 September 2025

“Markets don’t lie”

It is incredible to me that the US stock markets seem to be at or even above their all time highs. With the tariffs, the uncertainty, and the (now coming through) poor jobs numbers, all suggestive of a US economy that is in trouble, or will be heading deeper into trouble over the coming months, the markets should be reflecting that with negative sentiment and behaviours. They haven’t been.  

 

The ‘secret’ seems to be that if we look at the US in isolation (certainly something this administration believes we should do, and that MAGA Amerika seems unable to see past), the markets seem to be saying that everything will be just fine. 

 

But the markets are lying, at least if you look beyond the US of Amerika. 

 

Three charts: 

 

 

 

 

 

These three are from the WSJ online on 9 September 2025 and show the movements of the Dow, the Euro, and the British Pound over the past year. 

 

On 20 January 2025, the Dow was at 44,000. Today it is 46,000, a roughly 4% gain over almost nine months. Not a good return, but at least it is above the debacle of 37,700 immediately after the “Liberation Day” tariff announcements (+17% fall).  

 

In the same period, the Euro and the Pound have appreciated by 13%, and the Pound by 12%. 

 

The US dollar is in the toilet, and has had one of its worst years ever,



This means that in real terms against the Euro and the Pound, the US stock market has lost value, as should be predictable by Trump’s policies and blunders. 


Now we simply need to wait for it to show up in 'real' numbers (provided as estimated by non-US government agencies), and then in the markets. After all, they aren't lying; they just aren't telling the whole story.


02 September 2025

With a Whimper, not a Bang

The meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in China this weekend represents the second major blow to the US global empire in the space of a month. It signals the end of the “American Century”. Gone with a whimper, not a bang. 

 

First, Europe demonstrated that the relationship with Washington has changed, and that Europe is happy to be an adult, thank you very much. The US can join with Europe in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, or the US can sit this one out while Europe does what it must. Now China has hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin in northeast China, hosting Putin (Russia), Modi (India) and others in a direct snub of American authority. 

 

Two weeks ago, European leaders arrived in Washington to tell Trump that continuing to be Putin’s lapdog would result in Europe being unable to continue purchasing US Treasuries. There would not be a major sell-off; instead, there would be reduced or no further purchases. That would be a devastating blow to the US economy and Trump’s own ego, not to mention any hopes of retaining control of the House and Senate in the midterms. Of course, it was not presented in this manner, nor did anyone actually say it before, during, or after. Certainly, that was never mooted in the pre- or post-meeting communiqués. But vassal states do not group together and declare that they are attending any meeting, especially not en masse, without official invitation and weeks, if not months, of diplomatic preparation and protocol negotiations. And to hold a pre-meeting at the Ukrainian embassy in Washington before heading over to the White House could only be construed as a major snub to protocol. 

 

Now, without having to issue any threats (or ‘discussions of Europe’s limited options’), China has demonstrated that there is a vibrant and cooperating world that does not need, or desire, to include the US. 

 

 

 

This image of regional leaders from across Asia and Europe, including Lukashenko from Belarus and Erdogan from Turkey. More disturbing (if you are Trump or sitting in any office in New York, or London, Paris, or Bonn) is the economic mass that is represented in the photo. More than 20 leaders from mainly Central Asia and South Asia.

 

The combined GDP of the participating countries is estimated to be over $80 trillion, or three times the US GDP, and 50% higher than the combined GDP of Europe and the US. 


What is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation? 

 

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic and international security organization of ten member states. It was established in 2001 by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In June 2017, it expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan. Iran joined the group in July 2023, and Belarus in July 2024. Several countries are engaged as observers or dialogue partners. 

  

It is the world's largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population, covering approximately 24% of the world's total area (65% of Eurasia)[4] and 42% of the world population. As of 2024, its combined nominal GDP accounts for around 23%, while its GDP based on PPP comprises approximately 36% of the world's total. 

 

(Wikipedia accessed 02/09/2025): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation 

 

While leaders gathered in Tianjin, in Washington, the Dear Leader seems to have disappeared.  

 

What incredible lack of leadership and vision is required to abrogate the American position of soft, hard, and economic power within such a short period of time? Six months of incompetent leadership is all it took. And now, with Washington effectively on a “death watch” waiting for Trump to die or return even more enfeebled, the incompetent leadership is being replaced by a leadership void.  

 

In a dictatorship, no one can speak for the dictator, and all are afraid to take positions that they are not entirely confident will be supported by the dictator, for fear of appearing to usurp the authority of the Dear Leader. Any initiative could be a direct threat, and as such, any action is a very dangerous thing to do. 

 

And so American leadership, focused on Trump’s health and the looming invasion of Chicago and/or New York City, is failing to rise to the moment. Indeed, the isolationism demonstrated through the destruction of USAID (US Agency for International Development) and withdrawal from climate accords, the World Health Organisation, and the active antagonising of allies, has demonstrated that now is the time, finally, to turn away from the US to China. 

 

None of this needed to happen, of course. The US could still be the global leader, morally, economically, scientifically, medically, almost any ‘-ally’. Six months has squandered decades. Yes, it was coming for some time, but any competent administration could have softened the blow, delayed the inevitable by years if not decades.  

 

And so with a whimper, the American Century makes way for the Chinese Century. There are going to be ‘bangs’ along the way, but August 2025 was the month that history will record as the end of the American Empire.