Wellington has a Car Problem

There are too damned many cars in Wellington. The roads are clogged not by people driving; after all, the total population of Wellington has grown by “only” 30% over the past twenty-some years, but by the number of cars parking and taking up good driveable road. But vehicle numbers have soared. The chart below shows the increase (nationally) in the number of vehicles registered each year. There is no data for the number of vehicles decommissioned and taken off the roads, but the numbers will be far less. 

 

What does this mean? Either the number of cars needs to be reduced, or Wellington has a life of gridlock ahead of it. And bike lanes are not the answer in the short of long term. 

 

 

From zyan.co.nz 

 

According to ChatGPT (and its sources), the number of personal vehicles in New Zealand doubled from 2000 to 2023 (from around 1.9 million to 3.8 million). In the same period, population grew by 30%. 

 

In addition, personal vehicles are becoming bigger. Again, going to ChatGPT for an answer, and it says that the average personal vehicle in 2000 weighed 1300-1500 kgs, while in 2023, the average personal vehicle weighs between 1600-1800 kgs. So using weight as a surrogate for size, the total physical space being taken by personal vehicles in New Zealand (and therefore applicable to Wellington) has increased by 2.5 times. (All ChatGPT questions and answers are included at the end of this post.) 

 

The urban roading network is struggling. 

 

Basically, Wellington roads are not “wide” already, but are wide enough for vehicles parked on one side of the road to not obstruct two-way traffic in the rest of the road. But when there are enough cars parked on both sides of the road, bottlenecks appear where one-way traffic is all that is possible. Add bike lanes and there will be gridlock (if the bike lanes are not shared space on the road, something that is not happening in Wellington, where dedicated bike lanes are the innovation de-jour. 

 

If we consider that the average Wellington road averages 8 metres wide (more below), then how is that surface divided? We can consider 1.5 metres on each side as available for parking, leaving 5 metres in the middle for two lanes of traffic. That’s pretty tight, but just possible, provided one of the road uses is not a bus or a truck. 

 

If we remove another 1.5 metres for a bike lane (2.0 metres for a protected bike lane), then things get pretty squeezed in the middle, leaving only 3.5 metres for traffic. One way traffic only. But of course, when we put in the bike lane, we’ll remove the parking on one side of the road, so we still have 5 metres for two-way traffic. If the road is 8 metres wide. Many Wellington suburban roads are only 6 metres wide, yet have the same parking and two-way load “average” roads. 

 

Now we need to consider the impact of the increased number of private vehicles on Wellington roads and road use for multi-lane traffic. These pictures are not real, so before complaining that they are not real, consider them only as indicative and illustrative only. 

 

 

 

In the ”2000” image, cars are spaced out randomly along the road, with few if any cases of parking across from each other and therefore creating chokepoints.  

 

 

 

By 2012 the growth in registrations begins to create chokepoints or bottlenecks as cars begin to park in such a way as to limit the ability for two-way traffic to flow.  

 

 

 

By 2024, the growth in registrations of vehicles, predominantly private automobiles with little or no off-street parking, is creating longer sections of road that cannot be two-way.  

 

Adding a bike lane into that mix would be disastrous and would effectively create a no-drive road (which paradoxically would solve the bottleneck problem by removing cars from the road. Suffice to say, adding a bike lane to an already overcrowded roading infrastructure could only be done at the expense of parking on one side of the road (converting the parking median into a bike lane) which would then create a solid line of parked cars on the other side of the road. This would still result in a de-facto one-way system. 

 

What are the options? 

 

The first objective should be to clear the roadways. That means increase parking and/or reduce the number of vehicles. The only options are economic incentive, because New Zealand would not be ready or able to legislate the number of vehicles anyone or any family could own. In addition, the various permutation of exemptions would doom any system. 

 

That leaves us with economic incentives.  

 

I would propose three specific responses (on an “and”, not an “or" basis). 

 

1. Require all new dwelling permits include mandatory adequate parking. In practice this would mean a permissible number of parking spaces off-street included in any designs pre-approval.  
2. Permits for parking on-street, with the total available for a street being dependent upon the number of cars that could park on one side of the road without impairing freedom of movement (two-way traffic). Each dwelling on the street would be issued with one permit per (driver's license holding) occupant. Any additional (remaining) permits to be sold at auction on an annual basis. 
3. A (quite high) annual car tax for each vehicle above occupant authorised number of vehicles. I would suggest 10% - 20% of the retail value of the most expensive vehicle registered to the property. 

 

Not one of these alone will help solve the excessive vehicle problem in Wellington. Nor I expect, will any of them be acceptable to any individual without caveats or self-interested exclusions. 

 

Finally, is there the political will to accomplish this? I very much doubt it. But eventually, economics and local body politics will “solve” the excess vehicle problem. Let’s hope the solution is not to see more gridlock and, eventually, people simply leaving Wellington.  

 

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The pictures on not reality, of course. They are a built-up result of a screen grab from Google Maps, with each subsequent year having more images of cars included. Photoshop it isn’t, but it certainly should convey the point.  

 

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Some questions for ChatGPT 

 

Question: What has been the net increase in the number of personal vehicles in New Zealand from 2000 to today? 

 

ChatGPT Answer: 

 

From 2000 to 2023, the number of personal vehicles in New Zealand has grown substantially. In 2000, there were approximately 1.92 million personal vehicles registered. By 2023, this number had increased to around 3.8 million vehicles. This represents a net increase of about 1.88 million vehicles over the period (Global Econ Data) (EHINZ).  

This growth reflects broader trends in population increase, rising car ownership rates, and urbanization across the country. 

 

 

 

 

How did I get the information or estimate of the width of Wellington roads? I went to ChatGPT and asked it. This is the question and the response: 

 

Question: what is the average width of a suburban road in wellington new Zealand? 

 

ChatGPT Answer: 

 

The average width of a suburban road in Wellington, New Zealand, typically ranges between 6 to 10 meters (about 20 to 33 feet). The width can vary depending on the specific location and the type of road: 

1. Standard two-lane suburban roads: These generally have a width of around 7 to 8 meters (23 to 26 feet), accommodating two lanes of traffic and sometimes space for parking on one or both sides. 
2. Narrower residential streets: In older or more densely populated areas, suburban roads can be narrower, sometimes as little as 5 to 6 meters (16 to 20 feet). 
3. Wider roads with parking or bike lanes: In some cases, suburban roads with dedicated parking lanes or cycling lanes may be closer to 9 to 10 meters (30 to 33 feet). 

 

These dimensions allow for two-way traffic and, in many cases, space for street parking or cycling lanes. However, Wellington's topography, with its hills and older neighborhoods, can cause significant variations in road widths. 

 

Size of vehicles estimates come from the following ChatGPT question: 

 

Question: What is the average size (or weight as a proxy) of personal vehicles in New Zealand in 2000 and in 2023? 

 

ChatGPT Answer: 

 

The average size or weight of personal vehicles in New Zealand has changed notably from 2000 to 2023 due to shifts in consumer preferences, fuel efficiency standards, and the rising popularity of larger vehicles such as SUVs. 

 

1. Average Vehicle Weight in 2000: 

In 2000, the personal vehicle fleet in New Zealand largely consisted of smaller sedans, hatchbacks, and compact cars. The average weight of these vehicles was around 1,300 to 1,500 kg (2,866 to 3,307 lbs). Popular models at the time included vehicles like the Toyota Corolla and the Nissan Sentra, which were lighter compared to today's average vehicle weights. 

 

2. Average Vehicle Weight in 2023: 

By 2023, the personal vehicle market had shifted significantly, with a growing preference for SUVs, crossovers, and electric vehicles (EVs). These vehicles tend to be heavier, with the average weight for personal vehicles rising to about 1,600 to 1,900 kg (3,527 to 4,189 lbs). The increased weight is also due to added safety features, technology, and the presence of batteries in hybrid and electric cars. Popular models today include the Toyota RAV4 and Tesla Model 3, which are heavier than the average cars from 2000. 

 

Trend Impact: 

 

The shift towards larger vehicles like SUVs and electric vehicles is mirrored globally and is influenced by consumer demand for more spacious and feature-rich vehicles. Additionally, the weight of electric vehicles tends to be higher due to the battery packs. 

 

This increase in vehicle weight has also contributed to changes in fuel consumption patterns, road infrastructure wear, and environmental considerations. 

 

Bike lane width estimates come from the following ChatGPT question: 

 

Question: What is the average width of a bike lane in wellington new Zealand? 

 

ChatGPT Answer: 

 

The average width of a bike lane in Wellington, New Zealand, typically ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 meters (about 5 to 6.5 feet), depending on the specific road and its usage. Wellington, like many cities, follows design guidelines to accommodate safe cycling infrastructure: 

 

1. Standard bike lanes: These are generally 1.5 meters wide, which is suitable for a single cyclist in one direction. This is a common width for bike lanes on urban roads. 
2. Protected bike lanes: On roads where more protection from traffic is needed or where there are higher volumes of cyclists, the lanes can be wider, around 1.8 to 2.0 meters. 
3. Shared paths: In some suburban areas or along waterfronts, there are shared paths for both pedestrians and cyclists, where the total width might be wider but shared by both. 

 

Wellington's terrain and older road layouts can lead to some variation in these widths. The city's ongoing efforts to improve cycling infrastructure include both dedicated bike lanes and shared spaces, especially as part of the Let’s Get Wellington Moving initiative.