An interesting move by the Iranian president this morning, saying that he must apologise for Iranian attacks on Gulf States, and that all such attacks will stop unless attacks on Iran originate in their territories. Shroud tactics. This is a direct statement to the leadership of the Gulf States that they can stop any attacks on themselves by withdrawing support for and allowing the US to use their bases.
This will have zero effect today or tomorrow. But in two weeks, the cracks will begin, as the US continues to attack Iran, and the Gulf States cannot export oil, or even have their airports function. And their comparatively large populations, most of them non-citizens, may begin to feel pressure to access food, if imports cannot arrive via the Straits.
Iran does not need to attack the GCC countries to close the Straits, although attacks on shipping will be attacks in the Omani section of the waterway. They simply need to hit one of the 90+ tankers that transit per day. And the American Navy, no matter how good it is, will have a very difficult time protecting all of those ships. There will be burning ships if they try to pass through, and no matter what level of “insurance” Trump is willing to sell them, shipping companies would rather have ships than insurance payouts.
When it comes time, we probably won’t see any big announcements, just a quiet stopping of US assets using bases in Gulf states. There may be a temper tantrum from Washington for the first, but by the time a country is ready to remove Washington, they will already have gamed out their response. Then another country will, equally quietly, tell the Americans to pack up and move on. Eventually, the US will be forced either to occupy their bases, simply refusing to abide by the host countries' demands, or stretch their supply lines even further. If they decide to ignore the host countries’ demands, they will continue their war from ‘up close’, but will have a very difficult diplomatic future once the war ends.
The Gulf States know that they are in the crosshairs because of Trump’s erratic and deranged behaviour, and know that this will not change as long as he is in power. So they will turn to their own power, the economic power of oil, to ensure prices stay high and the US economy suffers.
Ukraine will also be suggesting that the US needs to support them a bit more if the US is to gain access to Ukrainian drone specialists, people who are not ‘extra’ because they are desperately needed inside Ukraine. I don’t think JD Vance will be told to “say Thank You”, but I suspect the Ukrainian position on the availability of people will not be as straightforward as Washington expects.
