Israel fears the Iranian bomb, but not for the reasons they claim

 Israel fears an Iranian nuclear bomb, and well they should. But not for the reasons they claim. Iran will not be throwing atom bombs at Israel as soon as it builds one, however tempting that might be.

Watching the “Iran wants a Bomb to Destroy Israel” show, it is easy to believe that they would, indeed, use such a weapon if they had one. After all, the US built the bomb and then used it on Japan, twice. It ended a war, and ended ‘history’ for Japan in the form of the all-powerful imperial household and emperor. Bombs were made from dropping, and that’s just what they’ll do, etc. 

 

But I think we are missing an important point. Bombs also created eighty years of peace. The atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki are the only atomic bombs dropped on any country by another in anger. 

 

Khruschev is famous for pounding the table with his shoe and saying, “We will bury you”. As an adversary, that seems like fighting talk, and it would be pretty scary to let such a country get the bomb. Surely, as soon as the Soviet Union started building bombs, they would attack and destroy European countries and the US. Surely, the United States should have used their bombs to stop any Soviet bomb development programme, and to destroy any nuclear capability before it could become a real threat. 

General MacArthur was reported to want to use the atomic bomb to stop China in Korea. That didn't happen. Strategic considerations stayed the hand, including the taboo associated with the use of atomic weapons. Withholding the bombs further reduced the potential for an adversary to use atomic weapons as a first or early resort.

 

But Russia (the Soviet Union) did build the bomb, and the US 'let' them. Who did they drop it on? No one to date. They built thousands of bombs. So did the US. And then the UK, France, and China. Then Israel, India, and Pakistan. Most recently, North Korea entered the club. What do each of these have in common? 

 

Each country that has demonstrated nuclear weapons capability has done so as a deterrent. Not one of these countries, so far, has built a bomb and then used it on their declared primary enemy. Even Pakistan and India, having fought at least two wars and innumerable skirmishes over the past fifty years (not to mention their violent divorce in 1948 upon gaining independence from the UK), have only ‘used’ their bombs as highly visible deterrents. 

 

Why didn’t they use their bombs as soon as they were developed and tested? 

 

Throughout the Cold War, the doctrine of “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD) ensured that countries with the capability to destroy each other had a stronger incentive to engage in dialogue rather than conflict. This did not stop competition in their and the other’s spheres of influence. Nor did it stop proxy wars from raging around the world. The Soviet Union bled the US dry in Vietnam, and later the US returned the favour in Afghanistan. 

 

Other than a few well-documented cases of potential accidental escalation, and the very real escalation of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Soviet Union and the US (and NATO member countries) never came close to open conflict. MAD worked. 

 

Iran will gain the bomb. And they will have the capability to deliver that bomb to Israel. Just as Pakistan and India both have nuclear weapons and the ability to deliver them. Just as Israel has nuclear weapons and delivery capability. 

 

Israel fears an Iranian bomb. Just as they told us to fear the “Muslim Bomb” when Pakistan built and tested theirs. 

Israel’s real fear is not that Iran will start lobbing bombs, but that Israel will lose the military upper hand and will be forced to negotiate with Iran and other countries. Israel does not want to negotiate with anyone. Negotiation implies a level of, if not equality, then at least recognition. Negotiation implies that both parties have something to bring, and both have something(s) to give up. 

MAD will come to the Middle East, whether Israel wants it to or not, and they very much do not want it to arrive. When Israel starts their next war, and they have started too many or engineered the conditions to start their wars, it will have a completely different set of calculations to make.

Israel will no longer be able to commit war crimes with impunity. The Liquidation of the Gaza Ghetto will be more difficult in a MAD world. Israelis will no longer be able to blithely ignore the suffering they are causing, the genocide happening in their name and with their support. Equality is what Israel fears, and the obligations and limitations that equality will impose on their murderous philosophy.

Over the past two weeks, Iran has proven that it can breach the Iron Dome. Not with every missile, and in fact with few, but they have landed meaningful hits on Israeli cities. As Israel improves their Iron Dome, so will Iran, probably with the help of its allies such as Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, and others, improve their missile technology and their ability to evade the Iron Dome. Israel is faced with a new order.

 

An Iranian bomb will alter the power dynamic from overwhelming Israeli power to a more ambiguous power relationship, and with that, the imperative to negotiate.

I suspect "G*d's Chosen People" are more afraid of having to negotiate than they have ever been scared of fighting.

For that reason, bring on the Iranian Bomb.

The Bells. The Bells.

Historically, the bells of Europe, controlled by the church, signalled to the people when to rise, when to work, and when to rest, and gave the church a level of authority through the practical application of sound as a representation of God. Did they use the Muslim system of telling when it was ‘day’ and when it was ‘night’? Hold a black thread at arm's length in front of you. In the morning, when the Imam can see the colour, it is daytime. In the evening, when he can no longer see the colour, it is night. 

 

The bells rang to start the day, and to break the day into its component parts. Here in Thessaloniki, the bells still ring to start the day, and at intervals throughout the day.

 

Clocks allowed the day to be evenly divided into times, yet the bells continued to control the day, not tied to clock-measured time, retaining the power and control of the church. 

 

As society changed, and with the French Revolution stripping the churches of any authority, the bells continued to ring, aligned with the clock, and under the ‘management’ of the state, so continuing the roll of the clock as an emblem of power over the people’s day.  

 

Now, having a clock (that is accurate) is a very important tool in any society, and for any individual. “What time is the meeting, what time do we need to be there, at what time does the ferry/train/plane leave?” Synchronisation enables efficiency, and any synchronisation requires clocks. 

 

In Saint Malo the clock on the cathedral tower chimes the number of a times equal to the hour; 6 chimes for 6am or 6pm, 2 for 2am or 2pm. And for each 15-minute interval in between, one chime. Rising from the depths of sleep to the sound of the bells is a pleasure, a means of establishing time-position in, and for the coming day. Counting the bells is equally relaxing and focusing.  

 

In Thessaloniki this morning, the bells rang at 7:22am. But that was from one church only. And there was no cadence, only a cacophony of sound. A minute later another church rang their bells. Did the bellringer think he’d missed his time? Or did the first bellringer want to be first this morning, after days of being second or third or fourth church?  

 

Each church bellringer has his (they are always men) own tune. Live bell ringing is a performance as much as a task. We know the bellringer at the closest church, and we know exactly when he is away on holiday and his responsibilities are taken over by someone who does not know his tune.  Jakova, a Georgian, is the caretaker of the Chalkeon Church, named (the church, not Jakova) after the Virgin Mary, patron of the Coppersmiths. His bellringing is a sweet little tune, repeating four rings in a little sing-song, and distinctly his.

The Agia Dimitrios church, three hundred metres away, has a very different sound, made by larger bells, rung in a more, dare I say it, threatening and powerful cadence - Bong - Bong - Bong, devoid of any tune or cheerfulness.

In the evening the bells ring somewhere around, but without any apparent linkage, to 6:30pm - 7:00pm. Usually, we are finished feeding the cats when the bells begin, but sometimes he has, probably at the goading of the priest, rung the bells before we arrive.

If you like the bells, and if you do not rely on them for anything other than a reminder that you are in an Orthodox country, they provide a comforting backdrop to the day. Otherwise, well, they are a sudden intrusion unhinged from any specific time.

 Maybe the bells here ring, at whatever time they do ring, as a vestigial exercise of control by the church. “We’re still here, and we still will intrude on your life, every day”. Don't plan your day around us, after all, we are the church, not the City Council or your employer. We are ringing to remind you to cross yourselves and think of God. Oh, and to remind you that your church needs you to send it a little gift of money every week, or we won’t be able to ring the bells.