We'll do Your Job and take the Blame

In a beautiful example of “we'll do your job and take the blame”, yesterday the US, UK, and with support from a host of other countries, bombed Yemen; the “Houthi rebels” to be precise – or that's what we call them. They probably call themselves the legitimate government of a portion of Yemen. Why are we doing someone else's job? 

 

Shouldn't the Gulf states and China be involved in this beyond just words? In fact, it would be nice is China would at least join with words. 

 

Did the Houthis deserve to be thumped? Probably. Blocking an international waterway that is so vital to international trade is not a wise idea. There are too many vested interests in an open waterway, and the petulant behaviour of one group in trying to block it was never going to end in anything other than tears.  

 

There is a long history of ensuring freedom of transit of vital waterways. Even the Panama Canal, originally conceived and started by the French and completed by the Americans, is open by international treaties and founding documents. Even the US Navy paid the Panama Canal Commission for transit at the same rate paid by all other ships, regardless of nationality. That remains the case today, with the Panama Canal under the sovereignty of the Panamanian government as a nation.  

 

Anti-piracy campaigns also have a long history, going back even to a young Julius Ceasar. When captured by pirates he first to them that the ransom they demanded for his release was too low, and then told them that when released he would raise a fleet and eradicate them. He was good to his word. 

 

Today, something around 12% of global trade passes through the Red Sea (and 30% of world container traffic) on its way to and from the Suez Canal and Europe. Where does that come from? The vast majority of it comes from the Gulf states in the form of oil, or from China (and slightly less, Japan). These are the countries that need to Red Sea to be open. If it is closed to traffic, something like 8500 km is added to the trip to round the Horn of Africa. Oh, and three weeks is added to the journey. That adds significant transport costs and buggers up supply chains (where have we heard that before). 

 

Therefore, the economic pain of a closed Red Sea falls on both the consumers (Europe mostly) and the suppliers (China, Japan, and the Gulf states). But the US gets the honour, with the UK, of doing the bombing to keep the Red Sea open. 

 

Or as Tony called it yesterday; “Operation distract from Palestine". 

Not quite true, but that is one of the image problems that Washington is going to have with the latest set of bombings. While probably completely justified, Washington should also have gotten China to publicly endorse the actions, as they did with Japan. Without that, China gets the benefits of having all their "Yellow Rubber Duckies” delivered, almost on time, without any negative public response to how the “on time” is ensured.