Donald Trump has shown his true colours as a Russian asset. Does that mean that he is receiving direct instructions from Moscow? Honestly, I do not know, but I do know from his actions that he appears to be a Russian asset, quacking ducks and all.
His decision to 'pause’ all Amerikan support for Ukraine will not have the simplistic outcome he believes. As a transactional individual, he appears to think that the only entities with agency are those with whom he chooses to deal directly. Ukraine exists only as the subject of his intent, while Europe is irrelevant.
Trump seems to think that ending the war is a matter of Amerika making a deal with Russia, and that he can simply pressure any other parties into accepting his deal. In the now infamous White House meeting, Trump told Zelensky “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.” The message was very clear, make my deal or you will suffer.
With intelligence and material support being cut off to Ukraine, things are only going to get worse, not better. Listening to Scaramucci and Kathy Kay on their ‘The Rest Is Politics USA’ podcast, they seem to be saying that without Amerikan support, Ukraine has 3 to 6 months at best. That may be true, but up until now the Ukrainians have had their hands tied by the Amerikans saying that if they are too aggressive against the Russians, the Americans will cut off their support. Well, now the Amerikans are cutting off their support, we have to expect the Ukrainians are going to take the gloves off.
What might this look like?
We should be considering what the Ukrainians have not done up to this point and why they have not done it. The Amerikan refusal to allow them to use various weapons deep inside Russia or even limiting their ability to defend on Russian territory, has been a dangerous curtailment of Ukrainian capability and Ukraine's ability to respond. We should be thinking about what they haven't done and what they might do without Amerikan support now.
Just how deep into Russia could they strike, and with what? There have been significant strikes with Ukrainian-produced ordinance, and Ukraine has become a, if not the, world leader in the development and innovation of drone technology for both tactical and strategic engagement.
The first thing that comes to mind is Russian electricity infrastructure, particularly the Kursk nuclear power station. It is well within the Ukrainians' capabilities to launch multiple attacks on the Kursk nuclear power station with the aim of knocking out its ability to deliver electricity without actually attacking the containment domes. That would be the first place that we should expect an attack, and I'm sure the Russians have built up their defences around it accordingly. But we've seen that no matter how good your air defences are, drones can get through.
The Trump White House seems to think that Amerikan pressure to limit Ukrainian responses in the past and the success of that constraint, has actually created a situation where they (the White House) believe Ukraine is not capable of responding. It would be dangerous to continue with that assumption. Washington might be confusing what Ukraine has not done with what Ukraine is not capable of doing.
But let's also go further and imagine that indeed Trump and his minions are right, and that Ukraine does not have the capability currently to launch significant attacks that would have been outside the bounds of what would have been acceptable to Washington before. And we then accept that without American aid Ukraine will falter, the front lines will collapse and the Russians will take over a larger chunk of Ukraine. What does anybody think will be the Ukrainian response to that?
I continue also predict that the Ukrainians will detonate a dirty bomb or an atomic bomb over the Black Sea as a demonstration, and then issue explicit red lines for the Soviet, pardon me, the Russian army not to cross. As Russia has yet to be issued with red lines from Ukraine, they may not know exactly how to react. Trump will, of course, bluster on behalf of his boss (apologies, negotiating partner), but as he has already cut off support, he does not, to use his own expression, hold a very strong hand of cards.
Europe may fill the gap in terms of supplies and intel, at least intel not blockaded by the Amerikans. What level of control will Europe (Paris, Bonn, and London realistically) have over Kiev? The more dire the situation, the less leverage any external party will have on Kiev.
I do not think for a moment that the Ukrainians will simply continue fighting with constraints. I suspect that we will see far more aggressive and far-reaching activity by the Ukrainians. If Russian armies breach Ukrainian red lines and the situation becomes existential for Ukraine, we should expect Kiev to respond with existential threats to Russia or Moscow. Remember this woman?
"Take these seeds, put them in your pockets, so at least sunflowers will grow when you die here."
When their backs are against the wall, expect a million Ukrainians with the spirit and resolve of this woman. And expect leadership in Kiev, regardless of who is in the chair, to have the same spirit. Zelenskyy showed the world in the first days of the invasion that he and his government would not be leaving. They would fight in the streets along with the army and citizens.
If Kiev sees a nasty end coming to them, I can imagine some very scary responses. Ukraine certainly has access to all the radioactive materials that it needs, just up the road from Kiev at Chernobyl. I cannot believe that Ukraine has not had a bomb programme running surreptitiously for some time now.
Will they, as the front collapses, make Sevastopol uninhabitable as an example? Will that be used to warn Moscow that they could be next? MAD comes to the relationship between Moscow and Kiev, and there will be nothing Washington can do about it. Kiev will have created its own home-grown security guarantees.
What of the rest of Europe? Will Europe have the leverage with Moscow to get Putin and team to understand what is at stake? Will Zelenskyy be able to convince Trump that a weakened Russia is in his (Trump’s) own personal best interests. Who will tell Trump that there will be no Nobel Peace Prize given to him if he orchestrates and supervises the final collapse of Ukraine?
Will Europe be able to increase its support for Ukraine to compensate for the loss of Amerikan support? Over the past week, Europe has woken up to the fact that it is stuck in the middle between two leaders, neither of whom has any desire to see Europe succeed, let alone Ukraine. Both hope Europe will fail to unify adequately.
But we should all be hoping that Europe does stand up quickly, and effectively. There are not two parties with agency, there are at least four; Amerika under Trump, Russia under Putin, Ukraine, and Europe. A strong and engaged Europe, unwilling to sell out Ukraine to Trump or Putin, may just have the leverage to keep Kiev from responding in a way that leads to Trump’s feared WWIII. Trump’s way to avoid WWIII is to capitulate. That is not Zelensky’s response.
Do not expect Ukraine to roll over and play dead. And do not believe for one second that the Ukraine we’ve seen constrained is the Ukraine we will see when their back is against the wall.
