Update: Trump won Both the popular vote and the Electoral College. The mandate of the people will be respected by the military. Unless - he demands a loyalty oath to him directly and not to the Consitution.
If Trump wins the Electoral College and not the popular vote (almost a certainty that he will not win the popular vote), then he will be assassinated (or otherwise removed) before taking office. On 20 January 2025, the Vance presidency will begin.
If Trump wins the Electoral College but not the popular vote, there will be a coup, but unlike Trump’s attempted coup in 2021, this will not be from the right or the left, but from the military. The conditions will be met for a coup, not least threats to the corporate interests of the military itself.
Historically, coups happen when the corporate interests of the military or military senior leaders are threatened by a civilian government that is thought to be disconnected from the military and society. It is a given that coups also happen when the military becomes politicised, and up to now, that has not been the case in the United States. Civilian control of the military has been a bedrock value, and is reinforced within the military as well. Constitutionally, the military reports to civilian leaders. In Egypt, threats to the military’s control over up to 40% of the economy contributed to the overthrow of the post-Mubarak government.
We should not think that, just because it has never happened, that a military coup in the United States is impossible. The question will be, “Who does the military support”? Fundamentally the US military does not care if the government is in the hands of the Democrats or the Republicans. That is the political decision of the people. The military cares about the interests of the military and its ability to achieve its mission. Every enlisted person and every officer takes an oath to protect the Constitution from all enemies, “foreign and domestic”.
Few serving members of the military will publicly express an opinion about a politician. Indeed, it would be harmful to their careers if they did so. But retired military can and do. And when it is senior retired officers who are speaking, it is worth listening to hear what their still servicing senior colleagues are thinking.
When retired senior generals (who then served as Secretary of Defence) called Trump a “fascist to the core”, you listen. When a different retired senior general (and Chief of Staff to the President) recounts Trump saying he wants generals like Hitler’s, who will follow orders.
Trump's general disregard for the military and its traditions is best summed up in one paragraph from the Atlantic Monthly:
A desire to force U.S. military leaders to be obedient to him and not the Constitution is one of the constant themes of Trump’s military-related discourse. Former officials have also cited other recurring themes: his denigration of military service, his ignorance of the provisions of the Uniform Code of Military Justice, his admiration for brutality and anti-democratic norms of behavior, and his contempt for wounded veterans and for soldiers who fell in battle.
In that paragraph are all the elements that demonstrate a disregard for and threats to the corporate interests of the military, probably the leading cause of coups. The only thing missing are threats to the military’s budgets and how it chooses, without legal bounds, to spend money, especially on honoring military members.
In another excerpt from the same article, Trump expressed disgust at the cost of a military funeral (for a Hispanic soldier murdered by another soldier on a military base in the US).
“It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a fucking Mexican!” He turned to his chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and issued an order: “Don’t pay it!”
In 1987, there was a coup in Fiji. Is should have been impossible. A South Pacific paradise without a large politicises military, democratic traditions, apolitical civil administration, etc etc. I was in New Zealand at the time, and being American, it was fun to be asked, in an assumed answer sort of way, if this was the CIA. With my degree having included studies of why coups happen, I was as able, once even scant information was available, to say definitively that the CIA was not involved and that all the conditions required for a coup were present.
While these are, to me, the primary contributors, ChatGPT has a more comprehensive answer to the question: “What are the primary causes of military coups?” summarized as the following seven points.
1. Political Instability
2. Economic Crisis
3. Military Discontent
4. Ethnic or Regional Tensions
5. External Influence
6. Lack of Democratic Institutions
7. Historical Precedent
These factors often interact, creating a complex landscape that can lead to military coups.
The United States today does not score well on these seven items, except for number 7, Historical Precedent. No, there has not been a military coup d'etat in United States history, even including the Civil War, which saw large numbers of federal military officers betray the nation and return to their individual states to wage war against the United States. However, the decisions were political and taken by the states themselves.
Let’s quickly consider each of the seven factors in relation to the current situation in the United States.
1. Political Instability: This election, with the risk of an Electoral College win in a time of another popular vote loss will contribute to uncertainty and potential instability as deep Blue states react, and deep Red states gloat. That in and of itself will not be the spark, but instability may well be present, regardless of who wins. With one party stating that they will not accept any result that does not have their candidate winning, only a decisive result will avoid both political instability and social unrest. Unfortunately, as at this moment, a decisive result one way or the other does not appear as the probable outcome. When almost the entire leadership of one political party refuses to accept the outcome of the previous election, there cannot be political stability. In 2020, 147 out of 252 Republican members of Congress voted to overturn the election result. The peaceful transfer of power is fundamental, and when one candidate does not commit to that, then there can be little political stability.
2. Economic Crisis: Strangely, this factor is not in play, at least not according to the economic metrics that are being reported. However, the perception of the economic crisis promulgated by the Trump campaign may play a role. The fact is, according to the Federal Reserve and others, the American economy is in the best shape it has been for years and will lead global economic growth.
3. Military Discontent: This is probably the greatest risk. Discontent usually does not mean the rank and file, but the officer class. And in the United States today, the officer class has seen the four years of Trump as a time of denigrating military members and officers. The past four years have not given any reason to think he may moderate his anti-military position. The treatment of “gold star” families and the insulting of veterans and soldiers killed in action are seen as a red line by many, especially in the military.
4. Ethnic or Regional Tensions: The United States continues to be riven by ethnic and regional tensions; minority rights are at risk, and there are Republicans who openly harken back to the days of White Supremacy and slavery and women's subservience and disenfranchisement. Red states are already in an almost open rebellion against Washington and the federal government.
5. External Influence: There are ample reports of Russia and other countries interfering in the US elections, primarily through targeted and general misinformation programs on an industrial scale, all designed to sow doubt, not to specifically disadvantage the Harris/Democrat position. Since Trump probably is a Russian asset in fact or in behavior, it is not unreasonable to expect that most of the support and misinformation is designed to support his candidacy.
6. Lack of Democratic Institutions: Across the United States, there have been attempts to undermine the systems of democracy and national institutions. The collapse of trust in the Supreme Court is symptomatic of the appearance of failure of institutions. Approval of Congress is at 60% unfavourable and showing no signs of improvement. (as accessed on 21/10/2024)
7. Historical Precedent: This is probably the only factor not flashing red (so to speak). The United States has no history of military coups. Neither did Fiji in 1987 (although sadly this set a precedent that resulted in a second coup in 1987 and coups in 2000 and 2006). While we can fixate on this one factor, we should remember that it is only of the seven. If we were talking about Pakistan, for example, the question would be “when” and no “if” there would be a coup. The 6th of January 2021 was not a coup, though it certainly was an attempted coup.
So, based on those seven factors, I believe there is a significant risk of a military coup in the United States between mid-November and late January.
The Coup
So if there is a coup, what does it look like? Does a general sit behind the Resolute Desk and address the cameras? Are there tanks in the streets of Washington and armed troops in the TV studios? Does ECOMCON (from the movie Seven Days in May and the book) fly troop transports to Chicago and other cities from their base in the southwest desert?
Like the plot line in Seven Days in May, military leadership (including retired military leaders with a stated aversion to authoritarian presidents) may be concerned by a combination of threats to the nation. These could include threats to leave or defang NATO and abandon Ukraine, and on a personal level, the animosity shown by the President-Elect toward the military and veterans, and a fear that this will undermine the military’s ability to fulfil its mission to protect the Constitution. Mind you, I do not expect there ever to be a statement from the generals about the reasons for the coup.
The 6th January 2021 attack on the Capitol previewed at least one aspect of the coup. When the President-Elect is assassinated (or suffers a “heart attack”), the Vice President-Elect will be whisked away to a “secure location” to await the outcome of the President-Elect's situation. Certain individuals considered to be dangerous to the nation will be “unavailable” and may not be seen for days, if ever again. I’m thinking specifically about former generals with too-close ties to foreign governments.
Meanwhile, the Vice-President Elect will be given the parameters under which he will rule, outlining key “red lines” that the military leadership will define. These will include the retraction of any threat to use the military against American civilians, the continued support for NATO and other treaty entities, and the continued support for Ukraine. As Vance has not been anointed as the MAGA Crown Prince, his support in the MAGA community will be suspect. All the more reason for him to hold close to the military leadership's instructions, which may or may not include direct influence on who he selects as his Vice President.
Once these conditions have been agreed upon, the Vice-President Elect will be found to no longer be in danger and will be presented to the country as the soon-to-be sworn-in President.
What is President Biden doing throughout this? Not much. He may well suffer a medical “event” of his own, and the Vice President will be “busy supporting the transition”. Without a 25th Amendment transfer of power, the Vice President will have no legal authority to stop the generals.
It is a facet of many coups around the world, that the military has made protestations that they are acting to protect the constitution and nation, and that they will hand over power as soon as possible. Rarely do they do so, though it has happened. The coup in the United States, if carried out as they would want it to, will never be publicly known to have happened. Of course, there are few secrets in America, so eventually, it will come out. But by then, a new direction will have been set. The genie will also have been released from the bottle.
If Trump wins the Electoral College and not the popular vote, there will be a coup d’etat.
